Hi
I have been backing 2-0 to favourites for a few weeks with much sucess. Trouble is i know that sooner or later that underdog goal is going to happen. I have been tinkering with ways for insurance when this happens with little success.
Any ideas and does anyone else use this strategy
Thanks in advance
Tx
Backing 2-0 to strong favourites, questions
looked into that one, sometimes not enough liquidity so odds quite low. tried laying favourite in odds market but doesnt rise enough to cover loss. what about backing fav after under dogs score hoping fav comes back ???
thanks for suggestion
Tx
thanks for suggestion
Tx
2-1 or 3-1 back would be good. An early goal to the dog in a game with a strong fave will still see the 3-1 come in.
One of the strats we implement with good success is a back on 2-1, 3-1, and 2-2 for games where goals are expected. Scalping early 1.5 gives some insurance.
One of the strats we implement with good success is a back on 2-1, 3-1, and 2-2 for games where goals are expected. Scalping early 1.5 gives some insurance.
Hi All
ill JUST POP THIS ONE IN HERE ABOUT BLOODY BETFAIR.
i was trading a football match to-night ,gimnasia v justica ,at 68 mins i layed alot of under 2.5 goals to green up when one was scored ,74 min goal scored market suspended ,and they never unsuspended it again.i was furious ,i called betfair to complain and told them i expected some sort of compensation from them,the guy told me it was an act of god and he couldent do anything about it.so now that hes blameing god for this .i was furious now he says its gods fault,i wont repeat what i said to him but im sure they will close my account ..in short betfair are a load of assholes.............rant over,,,
Marc
ill JUST POP THIS ONE IN HERE ABOUT BLOODY BETFAIR.
i was trading a football match to-night ,gimnasia v justica ,at 68 mins i layed alot of under 2.5 goals to green up when one was scored ,74 min goal scored market suspended ,and they never unsuspended it again.i was furious ,i called betfair to complain and told them i expected some sort of compensation from them,the guy told me it was an act of god and he couldent do anything about it.so now that hes blameing god for this .i was furious now he says its gods fault,i wont repeat what i said to him but im sure they will close my account ..in short betfair are a load of assholes.............rant over,,,
Marc
i know how you feel we all been there, but after a while for every future bet you place in the market you have to consider that you wont be able to trade in play after KO or just they will suspend the game at some point because they lost the feed it happends very often
Being Mr Cynical you don't think that the constant suspensions could be due to Betfair trying to seed the markets themselves. I.e. I have noticed that the markets that are getting suspended most often are low liquidity markets or markets where big wins or pay offs should have happened example being the big pools win where everyones money was taken only to be returned saying sorry the bets were not placed. Ummmmmmm and all of this at a time when the rumours are that Betfair are trading the markets themselves and driving the big players elsewhere with PC3.
Sorry got side tracked Twinkle and meant to answer your question regarding insurance on the 2 - 0. There is no quick and easy answer and Adster has great experience in the footy markets so take note. However here is my anaylsis of what happens to the other prices in the correct score market as the time lapses and may give you some ideas for insurance.
Here is what my research plotting many games has revealed;
0-0 - Will go down in price over time until goal is scored.
0-1 - Will go down in price until approximately 50-55 mins then start increasing if no goal is scored
1-0 - As 0-1
0-2 - Will go down in price until approximately 20 mins then start increasing if no goal is scored.
0-3 Will increase over time until goal is scored
1-1 - As 0-2
2-0 - As 0-2
3-0 - As 0-3
Au - As 0-3
When a goal is scored price will settle to whatever the last scoreline was, perhaps a little higher before decreasing over time until another goal is scored.
Also when goal is scored price behaviour as outlined on scores above will all move up one score.
No matter what the starting prices they all move this way sometimes stalling if there is goalmouth action sometimes going faster if there is nothing happening. I have learned to tell what is probably going on in a match without watching the match just by watching the prices.
Hope the above helps.
Here is what my research plotting many games has revealed;
0-0 - Will go down in price over time until goal is scored.
0-1 - Will go down in price until approximately 50-55 mins then start increasing if no goal is scored
1-0 - As 0-1
0-2 - Will go down in price until approximately 20 mins then start increasing if no goal is scored.
0-3 Will increase over time until goal is scored
1-1 - As 0-2
2-0 - As 0-2
3-0 - As 0-3
Au - As 0-3
When a goal is scored price will settle to whatever the last scoreline was, perhaps a little higher before decreasing over time until another goal is scored.
Also when goal is scored price behaviour as outlined on scores above will all move up one score.
No matter what the starting prices they all move this way sometimes stalling if there is goalmouth action sometimes going faster if there is nothing happening. I have learned to tell what is probably going on in a match without watching the match just by watching the prices.
Hope the above helps.
