Self Saboutage

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
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dmbusa
Posts: 274
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 8:33 am

Why is it that every time I start to think about taking some money out the Betfair account I go and do something stupid like lay a horse at 80 that goes on to win without me doing anything about it? :oops:
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L.o.S
Posts: 166
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2013 4:05 pm

There's no easy answer to that!

Does your strategy involve laying at big prices? If it does you have to have an exit strategy, otherwise you are outright gambling and not trading, and for all the wins you'll have, the one loser will wipe out the gains.

People lay at big prices because it seems like free money because the horse will 'never win', or back at shocking odds because team will 'never lose', but the risk reward ratio is terrible, and this kind of thing will always get you eventually.

Many people backing Man U tonight at 1.01 will be left in shambles for the same reasons. I guess you could start by avoiding taking on the huge risk associated with laying large odds.

Other than that, take time to have a break and come back at it again tomorrow. We all make howling mistakes from time to time, it's coming out the other side and trying again that matters.
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kelpie
Posts: 341
Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:40 am

dmbusa> I always say... After a Big Loss or a Big Win take a Big Break.

Sorry to hear this, but come back refreshed and wiser. You'll be fine
haichless
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2012 5:04 pm

L.o.S wrote:There's no easy answer to that!

Does your strategy involve laying at big prices? If it does you have to have an exit strategy, otherwise you are outright gambling and not trading, and for all the wins you'll have, the one loser will wipe out the gains.

People lay at big prices because it seems like free money because the horse will 'never win', or back at shocking odds because team will 'never lose', but the risk reward ratio is terrible, and this kind of thing will always get you eventually.

Many people backing Man U tonight at 1.01 will be left in shambles for the same reasons. I guess you could start by avoiding taking on the huge risk associated with laying large odds.

Other than that, take time to have a break and come back at it again tomorrow. We all make howling mistakes from time to time, it's coming out the other side and trying again that matters.

This confuses me, if a guy is laying at big prices lets say 40s and has an exit strategy of back at 5's for a loss or back at 80s for a profit. How is that not gambling. Every trade is a gamble at reduced risk to an an outright bet, calling it trading is just semantics, it is really gambling on an outcome just at different parameters. Dont get fooled by the hype.
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

I've said this many times on this forum, the difference between gambling & trading is often a grey area.

Any strategy that involves 'in play' is risky and requires extraordinary discipline.

I suspect most of us are here because we've had an interest in betting prices over the years, so dabbling with 'in play' volatility can often lead to gambling instincts taking over
dmbusa
Posts: 274
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 8:33 am

The strategy I am using does not normally use such large prices for laying, but once in a while for some unknown reason, just about the time I think I can withdraw some of my bank I go and do something that is not part of my normal strategy, as though I have no concious control over it and it is some nasty subconscious belief coming out and saying no you can't have that money etc. The best way to describe it is that it is like trading while very drunk you think you know what you are doing but you really don't.
andyfuller
Posts: 4619
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm

Look to take the positive out of the situation. If you cut out these lapses you will be profitable which you can build on. So what you need to work on is self discipline.
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