Jeff,
Do you know what the historical price over 10 years of a top 4 team scoring against a bottom 4 team after 70 minutes is ? 58% there or there abouts - Odds of 1.72
Do you know the historical price of Arsenal scoring against a bottom 4 team after 70 minutes over the past 10 years ? different to 1.72
Do you know the historical price of Man Utd scoring against a bottom 4 team after 70 minutes over the past 10 years ? different to 1.72
Both top 4 teams Arsenal and Man U - both have a greatly different chance of scoring historically in the last 20 minutes.
The fact is you don't need to know.
Soccer mystic will tell you the average price yes, but how likely is the chance going to be the same over the next 10 years ?
What football statistics won't tell you is what happens in the future. The past can not be relied on to produce the same chance in football.
So your edge in the past is not guaranteed in the future. This isn't to say that there are edges in football ; there are otherwise myself and other traders would not make a profit from them.
Therefore the football markets in play there is no true price in my humble opinion for a next goal. It is made up of averages that are way higher / way lower. The key to beating those markets is to work out whether the price is higher or lower than that average and laying / backing accordingly. So in effect you are gambling as you have no true edge - you are taking advantage of moving prices - that is true trading football in play. A goal and you will lose money.
Your theoretical historic edge will in my humble opinion not exist therefore in the future.
Betfair's activities in the market
Thanks Evertonian
Let's say the Man U are playing Wigan and score. Do you think something like the following?
'Statistically, we know from a very large sample of games that the true odds of United winning are, on average, are x in this sitation. Therefore, I'll assume that those stats apply to the current game. They might not do so, but over a large number of bets they'll average out at x. So as the current odds are a higher than than x, I'll place a bet'.
Jeff
Let's say the Man U are playing Wigan and score. Do you think something like the following?
'Statistically, we know from a very large sample of games that the true odds of United winning are, on average, are x in this sitation. Therefore, I'll assume that those stats apply to the current game. They might not do so, but over a large number of bets they'll average out at x. So as the current odds are a higher than than x, I'll place a bet'.
Jeff
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evertonian
- Posts: 81
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:34 am
In my humble opinion with something like that then this is what you need to consider :
What are you taking into account ? Are you taking into account only games between Man U v Wigan in your sample ? Are you taking into account teams that are ranked in the same "zone" as Man U ( i.e top 4 teams against bottome 4 teams ) ? How far does your sample go back ? Will it take into account games played years back ? If so, players were different - game times were different , weather was different ? This is why finding an edge like that is so difficult in my humble opinion, and therefore you're gambling because you're basing your opinion on historical facts.
In my opinion, this is not the way to do it. Watch the game. Analyse what's going on - again still gambling but the difference is youre actually seeing what you're gambling / trading on. You also by trading in play have the opportunity to cut losses / run profits if a trade is going your way. Id be extremely grateful if there are other football traders out there join this discussion. I realise it's getting late but tomorrow other opinions / thoughts would be gratefully appreciated as I'm sure people have different opinions on how to trade the football succesfully.
What are you taking into account ? Are you taking into account only games between Man U v Wigan in your sample ? Are you taking into account teams that are ranked in the same "zone" as Man U ( i.e top 4 teams against bottome 4 teams ) ? How far does your sample go back ? Will it take into account games played years back ? If so, players were different - game times were different , weather was different ? This is why finding an edge like that is so difficult in my humble opinion, and therefore you're gambling because you're basing your opinion on historical facts.
In my opinion, this is not the way to do it. Watch the game. Analyse what's going on - again still gambling but the difference is youre actually seeing what you're gambling / trading on. You also by trading in play have the opportunity to cut losses / run profits if a trade is going your way. Id be extremely grateful if there are other football traders out there join this discussion. I realise it's getting late but tomorrow other opinions / thoughts would be gratefully appreciated as I'm sure people have different opinions on how to trade the football succesfully.
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lilgreenback
- Posts: 211
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 11:28 am
Would trading or gambling in the football markets be just as risky pre-off? Slower moving markets granted but no time-delay or a goal going against you to contend with.
What LeTiss has said is something I was wondering
If this is the case however you dressed it up it still amounts to cheating (allegedly), in some ways you reap what you sow. How often have the suspensions or technical issues hit everyone else following thier upgrades etc."
I thought I may have been way off the mark as no one else commented, if BF are using a trading arm to maximise their profits then I would hazard a guess that they have the odds or their edge tipped in their favour.
What LeTiss has said is something I was wondering
What I added from the @29's thread, "If Betfair have been playing within their own markets is it not a little like Insider Trading (or share dealing). Could they not also be benefitting in other ways such as very little or no time delay when opening/closing positions (unlike everyone else). Again allowing themselves the maximum opportunity to benefit from their systems.LeTiss 4pm wrote: What I think is totally wrong, is that BF are hoovering up money in markets before anybody else. That to me sounds like insider trading and shouldn't be allowed
If this is the case however you dressed it up it still amounts to cheating (allegedly), in some ways you reap what you sow. How often have the suspensions or technical issues hit everyone else following thier upgrades etc."
I thought I may have been way off the mark as no one else commented, if BF are using a trading arm to maximise their profits then I would hazard a guess that they have the odds or their edge tipped in their favour.
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
BF shouldn't be allowed to do any trading on their own markets (for an 'exchange' it would be a clear conflict of interest). the capability to front run etc. is obviously theirs and theirs alone, and the temptation would always be there. I think it unlikely that they would take such a risk with the business as it would be a huge scandal if it were uncovered.
I agree Frank - Betfair would be take a huge risk if they were to frontrun.
And I imagine there are guys who use software to monitor everything that goes on in the market, and would be able to work out pretty quickly if Betfair were front running their orders.
Jeff
And I imagine there are guys who use software to monitor everything that goes on in the market, and would be able to work out pretty quickly if Betfair were front running their orders.
Jeff
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2046
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I said before in another post and I will post it again here.
Betfair brought in XM way before they announced it IMHO. In fact I am sure they were ticked off for not announcing it before implementing it but I stand to be corrected on that point.
They realised very quickly that some very savvy people were hoovering up errors in the market. This was performed in such a way that generated commission was very low. There was also the problem of bots hammering the servers.
Attack 1. Introduce data charges to stop the bots etc. Fair enough, no problem with that. Result = Software was improved and it didn't sufficiently line Betfair's pockets.
Attack 2. Having failed with data charges they went for the premium charge. Obviously it wasn't enough to satisfy Betfair's needs. Result = Betfair had to think again.
Okay so Plan B...if you can't beat 'em join 'em!
Attack 3. XM via the back door to see if they could replicate the traders' methods and basically hoover up the slush in the market. As already mentioned they see the money entering the market, ergo, they see the error before anyone else and can hoover it up. Result = Hey boys we're onto a winner here now how do we make it hard for traders, errmmm, competition, ermmm, smart clients aka WINNERS?
Attack 4. Keep XM and apologise smugly for not announcing it was being used. Introduce even higher PC to dissuade the WINNERS from using Betfair.
Whilst all of this was brewing the site remained unstable, we suffered crashes, accounts were frozen without reason etc etc etc.
Basically Betfair are poacher and gamekeeper only they don't take the odd fish, they trawl the whole river with a drag net!
Rant over!
Betfair brought in XM way before they announced it IMHO. In fact I am sure they were ticked off for not announcing it before implementing it but I stand to be corrected on that point.
They realised very quickly that some very savvy people were hoovering up errors in the market. This was performed in such a way that generated commission was very low. There was also the problem of bots hammering the servers.
Attack 1. Introduce data charges to stop the bots etc. Fair enough, no problem with that. Result = Software was improved and it didn't sufficiently line Betfair's pockets.
Attack 2. Having failed with data charges they went for the premium charge. Obviously it wasn't enough to satisfy Betfair's needs. Result = Betfair had to think again.
Okay so Plan B...if you can't beat 'em join 'em!
Attack 3. XM via the back door to see if they could replicate the traders' methods and basically hoover up the slush in the market. As already mentioned they see the money entering the market, ergo, they see the error before anyone else and can hoover it up. Result = Hey boys we're onto a winner here now how do we make it hard for traders, errmmm, competition, ermmm, smart clients aka WINNERS?
Attack 4. Keep XM and apologise smugly for not announcing it was being used. Introduce even higher PC to dissuade the WINNERS from using Betfair.
Whilst all of this was brewing the site remained unstable, we suffered crashes, accounts were frozen without reason etc etc etc.
Basically Betfair are poacher and gamekeeper only they don't take the odd fish, they trawl the whole river with a drag net!
Rant over!
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
The inplay suspensions and inplay delays would surely always give betfair an advantage if they were trading their market and were not affrected by having a delay
I've been on the inside.Ferru123 wrote:Hi Mpendle
That's quite a claim. How do you know that?
Jeffmpendle wrote: They don't have the skills at Betfair HQ to make these bets. The company barely has an employee who understands the betting markets.
Hi Mpendle
So did you used to work for Betfair?
When you say that 'The company barely has an employee who understands the betting markets', surely the guys in the call centre or in the back office functions understand the basics of how the exchanges works. Otherwise, they'd be unable to do their job.
Or do you mean that they lack a deeper insight into how exactly the technology works, what causes the markets to move, etc?
Jeff
So did you used to work for Betfair?
When you say that 'The company barely has an employee who understands the betting markets', surely the guys in the call centre or in the back office functions understand the basics of how the exchanges works. Otherwise, they'd be unable to do their job.
Or do you mean that they lack a deeper insight into how exactly the technology works, what causes the markets to move, etc?
Jeff
Very few people understand the industry and more importantly what the customer wants and needs. Employees in the operations departments know how to deal with queries, but little more. Very few place bets themselves and as such lack the understanding needed to relate to their customers.
It applies thoughout the company, upper management, marketing etc. Take a look at the advert that was banned for confusing advertising ("cut out the middle man"), to me the people behind that advert didnt understand the company.
It applies thoughout the company, upper management, marketing etc. Take a look at the advert that was banned for confusing advertising ("cut out the middle man"), to me the people behind that advert didnt understand the company.