I had a look at this and made a laymans attempt at seeing how the projections might work out based on recent polls. Margin of error in the week leading up to the polls is 2% going back to 1968.Euler wrote:Trump is just a polling error behind Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tru ... d-clinton/
If we count only polls since the "Internet age" where people can find out a lot more about their choices rather than relying on newspapers/tv then it depends on where you draw the line for popular internet access. For argument sake, and thankfully for numbers sake, averaging the last 3 elections since 2004 gives 1.3% margin and the last 4 elections since 2000 gives 1.83%, so to err on the side of caution we'll use the standard 2% as the limit/margin of error.
The states with a margin of >2% give Clinton a 264:215 lead.
There's 4 states left with a combined total of 59 votes, Nevada(6) Colorado(9) Florida(29) North Carolina(15) all too close to call at the moment, although democrats lead all 4 by 0.5, 0.4, 0.2 and 0.1 percentages respectively.
That leaves Clinton needing just one of the 4 states in limbo to push her to the magical 270.
To cut a long post shorter, personally I think Florida will be swung Clintons way by the Hispanic population/higher number of registered female democrat voters. The Great Mexican Wall and grabbing girls by the pussy may finally catch up on Trump.
That said the Ohio vote is 18 seats and is given 2.1% Republican, if that was to swing the other way then it would be game over with the 4 limbo states still on the bench!
A bad case of a bird in the hand is worth a tick in the bush.
