Lay the Draw Guardian Automation Bot for Football
If you expect there is going to be goals in a match you would lay the draw at the start and look to green up after a goal is scored,, why sit and wait for an early goal to then lay at even higher odds and hope they hold on,, I see no sense in this approach !
make a very interesting point < I have never met a person or model who can predict expectation of goal production in a game before it starts to a high accuracy <Tenable wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:00 amIf you expect there is going to be goals in a match you would lay the draw at the start and look to green up after a goal is scored,, why sit and wait for an early goal to then lay at even higher odds and hope they hold on,, I see no sense in this approach !
the reason is that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score = game state , added to the time of the opening goal in an individual league >
if you think you can predict goals to a high accuracy before a game starts then contact me
I know one person who has done it very accurately for many many years and shares them for others to use, and not including myself I know of several very successful football traders including a few members of this forum who consistently profit from football markets and all do it by first being able to predict with good accuracy the expected amount of goals a match will product then deploying a strategy to suit that.jonnyg wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:45 pmI have never met a person or model who can predict expectation of goal production in a game before it starts to a high accuracy <
the reason is that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score = game state , added to the time of the opening goal in an individual league >
if you think you can predict goals to a high accuracy before a game starts then contact me
Without having some idea how many goals are expected you can't possibly decide which strategy to use or which match to target
Dallas wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:04 pmI know one person who has done it very accurately for many many years and shares them for others to use, and not including myself I know of several very successful football traders including a few members of this forum who consistently profit from football markets and all do it by first being able to predict with good accuracy the expected amount of goals a match will product then deploying a strategy to suit that.jonnyg wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:45 pmI have never met a person or model who can predict expectation of goal production in a game before it starts to a high accuracy <
the reason is that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score = game state , added to the time of the opening goal in an individual league >
if you think you can predict goals to a high accuracy before a game starts then contact me
Without having some idea how many goals are expected you can't possibly decide which strategy to use or which match to target
Without having some idea how many goals are expected you can't possibly decide which strategy to use or which match to target > that would be irrelevant if you bet in play / trade in play around the events that occur
but YES I am interested in the thought that people predict goals to a high accuracy in a game before it starts at a consistent level
I would assume in terms of strategy if they think a game will have a high goal production then they back goals
if you are going to advise that they look at the expected goal totals re the chance creation in historical games then I would be surprised if they are making long term profits having seen this strategy in action >
Yes it is, you would just need to change the lay bet to be armed at HT and from being applied to Betfair row 3 to Betfair row 1then add a 'Fixed odds condition' and specify the max price
swansea beat WBA , 0-1 HT Hull beat West ham 0-1 HT West Brom beat Hull 0-1 HT City beat Arsenal 0-1 HT , spurs beat WHU 0-1 HT , Hull beat southampton 0-1 HT
that is already 6 games >
bourne v liverpool 0-2 Ht
7 games
I make it 92 games last season where away team winning HT in PL and 7/92 home wins
apologies < when it comes to football data < I am very anal <
Last edited by jonnyg on Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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So the criteria is..jonnyg wrote: ↑Wed Jul 26, 2017 6:51 pmswansea beat WBA , 0-1 HT Hull beat West ham 0-1 HT West Brom beat Hull 0-1 HT City beat Arsenal 0-1 HT , spurs beat WHU 0-1 HT , Hull beat southampton 0-1 HT
that is already 6 games >
bourne v liverpool 0-2 Ht
7 games
I make it 92 games last season where away team winning HT in PL and 7/92 home wins
apologies < when it comes to football data < I am avery anal <
* away team scored in first 20 mins
* score 0-1 at half time.
only 7 out of those 92 games resulted in away team win?
So lay away team or lay current score?
No its the opposite, if you greened immediately after a goal you would green for a big loss as you'll be need to take a very bad price.
The 90secs is not set in stone you can change this to whatever you wish but i wouldn't go much lower than 60secs especially if trading on an illiquid match
Thank you Dallas for your patience with my questions but I am confused by your last answer saying you would green for a loss. I thought green means profit and that a loss would mean not greening so how is this possible?
However I am interested in how you could maximise your profit by changing the delay, how would you go about testing the best delay to use?
However I am interested in how you could maximise your profit by changing the delay, how would you go about testing the best delay to use?