EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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jimibt
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Euler wrote: Wonder what is going on there? Why wouldn't you following through on a campaign win?
i think he become what's known as a toxic asset. the scottish vote would not be behind him, given the unanimous remain result there. likewise in other remain consituencies.
Wainwright
Posts: 108
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:10 pm

Doesn't wan't to be the one to go down in history as the one who pulled the trigger, prefers to let Gove stand and then pick up the pieces a few years hence, if at all possible.

Proves they didn't want/expect to win as you would think they may have discussed post-win tactics between them wouldn't you ?
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marksmeets302
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Or he just doesn't want the job, and never counted on getting it. It will be very hard to do and most people will get hurt in monetary terms. The next prime minister won't be a popular fellow :-)
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LeTiss
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Theresa May even gets the Tartan out to appeal to the Scots!

:lol: Don't you just love Politicians.....absolute slimeballs!
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jimibt
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LeTiss 4pm wrote:Theresa May even gets the Tartan out to appeal to the Scots!

:lol: Don't you just love Politicians.....absolute slimeballs!
more interesting is probably the civil servants' roles behind each of the *candidates*. a story waiting to be told -in 50 years time; once redacted status removed :D
andyfuller
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Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm

jimibt wrote:
marksmeets302 wrote:That's the ftse in pounds... convert it to any other currency and it's still down by a lot.
yes, the power of using data without balance (i.e. neglecting to factor in the weakmess (intentional typo) of the ££). it's scary that many will be suckered into thinking that last weeks' events were a flash in the pan and worse, many will continue to use false indicators to monitor the fallout.
It is a UK listing in £'s sterling so reference to it in terms of how it is trading to the $ or other currency is irrelevant imo. Or am I missing your point?

I don't recall ever hearing people reference any index in terms of another currency. Likewise when the £ was doing well against the $ recently I don't recall people saying the gains are x much great in the FTSE than they actually are.

You will always be able to find a currency that is doing better/worse to the native currency of a listing and make it fit the argument you want to make as to if the index is doing well or badly.
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marksmeets302
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I said it because I remember being surprised over the gain since 9/11 of the S&P500 vs the european indices, back in 2004. After compensating for the eur/usd, the graphs looked the same.

As far as the ftse goes, it's a product just like any other. If trading happens between two british people, the value of the pound doesn't matter. But as soon as you start selling it to a customer outside the UK, he will calculate what a fair price is in his currency.

There are advantages to a weaker pound, but once your government needs to buy goods or services in dollars they will need to exchange more pounds. How is the government getting more pounds? Taxes...
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Euler
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FTSE quite likley to rise in response to falling sterling as international companies that are listed on the FTSE will earning more on overseas earnings due to the fall in sterling.

My ULVR shares have done well since sterling bombed. I think it's too simplistic to say FTSE has risen so everything is rosy.
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Euler
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I'm sort of in the perfect position. I own UK equities which are rising again, but thanks to their performance I have a big US portfolio which is going up in value thanks to the drop in sterling.

It may be better for me to own ADR's in UK companies however?
Lost The Rider
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The FTSE100 is a poor indicator of trader sentiment regarding the economy due to its multinational makeup. The 250 is a better measure and, whilst a slight about turn today, has bombed since brexit.
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Euler
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andyfuller
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Euler wrote:FTSE quite likley to rise in response to falling sterling as international companies that are listed on the FTSE will earning more on overseas earnings due to the fall in sterling.
...
I think it's too simplistic to say FTSE has risen so everything is rosy.
Yes the FTSE company earnings are likely to rise when sterling drops due to the make up of the FTSE and where they largely operate.

My comment about the FTSE being back above pre-brexit levels was said tongue in cheek hence the ;) in the comment.

It was made largely in part due to all the hysteria that was made about the FTSE falling relatively little but given comments made about it you would have thought it had broken some huge levels, not those seen just 7 days previous. It is now back near levels not seen in the last 12 months. Yet that doesn't get the same coverage - though like with all things pretty much - good news doesn't sell.

So I think it is also too simplistic to see a fall in the FTSE as impending financial doom.

The FTSE 250 is much more representative of the UK economy and I wish it was quoted a lot more in reference to the UK and its economy.

House builders have proven quite tempting at current levels.
Lost The Rider wrote:The FTSE100 is a poor indicator of trader sentiment regarding the economy due to its multinational makeup. The 250 is a better measure and, whilst a slight about turn today, has bombed since brexit.
Yes it has dropped since the actual vote but in the days leading up to the vote the index rose as remain became more likely. It is already back to levels seen in mid-june and I don't remember seeing much coverage of it being at worryingly low levels two weeks ago. Or when it was a 1,000 points lower in Feb. It is currently mid-52 week range.

Can't say I am particularly worried about my investments - doubt recent levels will even register with me in years to come.
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Euler
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The business impact is unlikely to be felt for a while. Currently, the business mood is one of postponing projects, recruitment freezes and cancelled contracts. Will take a while to filter through. The UK is unlikely to attract much new inwards investment until a clear picture emerges. The currently political situations is causing the date for that to arrive to drift off into the future at the moment. It's a right good old British mess. Needs very strong leadership.
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Euler
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And people wondered why the majority voted leave: -

https://www.rt.com/news/349063-istanbul ... nd-asylum/
Jamie
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Who on earth (apart from the power-mad) would want this? :-

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/ ... ate-Brexit

More power in fewer hands is never a good idea.
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