After a second opinion on a theoretical outcome. Despite laying all runners in a 14 horse race for 101.43% over round, using $100 total stakes & after commission of 6.5%, I still stand to lose anywhere between $3.22 and $6.17 for any result.
However since laying the runners, and before the race has run, 3 have steamed, 3 have not changed markedly price wise, and 8 have drifted higher in price. Should I then greenup all of those 8, or does that stuff up the entire Bookmaking scenario? Just confused is all??
Thanks.
Laying the field on over round book, plus bonus greenup?
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CLOWNSHOES
- Posts: 173
- Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2014 8:04 pm
If you green up the 8 runners you will still have the other 6 layed but your liability will be minus the green ups you have created on the other horses. Provided you green them individually on the side of the ladder.
I lay both competitors in 2 person sports from time to time and i got in a mess by taking partial greens once. I found logging into betfair and having the cashout button up gave me piece of mind to continue experimenting.
I lay both competitors in 2 person sports from time to time and i got in a mess by taking partial greens once. I found logging into betfair and having the cashout button up gave me piece of mind to continue experimenting.
I suppose this is related which is why I've put it into this post.
I noticed the other day while watching a race that the underround on the lay side would sometimes green to 106-107%. Would it be possible to capture a profit on this by automation?
I noticed the other day while watching a race that the underround on the lay side would sometimes green to 106-107%. Would it be possible to capture a profit on this by automation?
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rinconpaul
- Posts: 112
- Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:39 pm
I thought it was wishful thinking CLOWNSHOES, thanks for the advice. The ones that drift are usually longshots and you make stuff all on the greenup.
greety, yes that does happen, and there are youtubes on such an occurrence. Unfortunately by the time you see it, it's gone just as quick, as there's a 'million' bots out there waiting for that to happen, which is rare as a simultaneous event.
There is actually money to be made Bookmaking and I know people who live off it! Just record all matched prices for every runner in a race. Find the min price matched for each runner and calculate its implied probability %. Sum that, and I think you'll find an over round of up to 120% is achievable in a perfect world BUT??
The BUTT?? is you can't chase prices, you have to be the 'bookmaker' as it were, and contribute to framing the early market on Betfair.
greety, yes that does happen, and there are youtubes on such an occurrence. Unfortunately by the time you see it, it's gone just as quick, as there's a 'million' bots out there waiting for that to happen, which is rare as a simultaneous event.
There is actually money to be made Bookmaking and I know people who live off it! Just record all matched prices for every runner in a race. Find the min price matched for each runner and calculate its implied probability %. Sum that, and I think you'll find an over round of up to 120% is achievable in a perfect world BUT??
The BUTT?? is you can't chase prices, you have to be the 'bookmaker' as it were, and contribute to framing the early market on Betfair.
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rinconpaul
- Posts: 112
- Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:39 pm
A picture tells....?? In the attachment I've taken a 10 horse AUS Gallops race. As soon as there was a price matched for all runners, I've recorded those prices and converted same to implied probability % in the table alongside. Then I've recorded all simultaneous matched prices every 10 secs until the Close.
In col X is the subtotal% of each recording and apart from one instance, the book total % was < 100%. Interestingly the best max % was achieved at the Open for 6 runners. That's a good start but we can't see the future to know that, at the time! The 'yellow' cells are the best max % for each horse. If you were lucky enough to jag those, your total book % would be cell Z2 118.86%.
Wouldn't that be great?
In col X is the subtotal% of each recording and apart from one instance, the book total % was < 100%. Interestingly the best max % was achieved at the Open for 6 runners. That's a good start but we can't see the future to know that, at the time! The 'yellow' cells are the best max % for each horse. If you were lucky enough to jag those, your total book % would be cell Z2 118.86%.
Wouldn't that be great?
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
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rinconpaul
- Posts: 112
- Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:39 pm
Anyone considering building a Book needs to consider a few variables apart from a bid price? As I suggested earlier the need to be one of the first to frame the market is paramount. Just how early would you need to be?
I took a week of horse racing stats for GB,IRE,AUS & NZ...no way definitive...but this is just to get the thought processes happening, if so inclined to build a book?
The average time before the close, first bet taken:
GB 11hrs 35m
IRE 8hrs 58min
NZ 12 min
AUS 1hr 11 min
A world apart in more ways than one!
While extracting that info, I grabbed some other trivia? Trivia for some, might make money for others?
The average time elapsed between the actual Race start and Scheduled start:
GB 1min 51 sec
IRE 1 min 48 sec
AUS 1 min 23 sec
That time over run can have a big effect if your bot is triggered by a parameter determined when it fires.
And finally, Max time expired between Scheduled start and the actual Race start:
GB 28 min 09 sec
IRE 7min 53 sec
AUS 40min 40 sec
I'd hate to have bets fired, and then be waiting that amount of time for a result.
Again, not conclusive, as based on a week's worth, so due diligence required before you risk any cash.
I took a week of horse racing stats for GB,IRE,AUS & NZ...no way definitive...but this is just to get the thought processes happening, if so inclined to build a book?
The average time before the close, first bet taken:
GB 11hrs 35m
IRE 8hrs 58min
NZ 12 min
AUS 1hr 11 min
A world apart in more ways than one!
While extracting that info, I grabbed some other trivia? Trivia for some, might make money for others?
The average time elapsed between the actual Race start and Scheduled start:
GB 1min 51 sec
IRE 1 min 48 sec
AUS 1 min 23 sec
That time over run can have a big effect if your bot is triggered by a parameter determined when it fires.
And finally, Max time expired between Scheduled start and the actual Race start:
GB 28 min 09 sec
IRE 7min 53 sec
AUS 40min 40 sec
I'd hate to have bets fired, and then be waiting that amount of time for a result.
Again, not conclusive, as based on a week's worth, so due diligence required before you risk any cash.