Today's Football

[Kai]

If market always perfectly corrected to every piece of teamnews we could never find any opportunities, a bit of uncertainty is good for trading

[jamesedwards]

Anybody know why Man City price (v's Arsenal) jumped at around 03:00 last night ? They were around 1.98 and suddenly shot up to about 2.15. Can't find anything in the news

Thanks for all the responses guys but injury problems were known about days ago ... if it was that why did the market wait until the early hours of this morning to react. I'm wondering if a bit of insider dealing has taken place (after the night clubs closed!) re the real affect those injuries will have.

Also how do you tell if the sudden change in odds was as a result of MC's chance of winning suddenly became weaker or Arsenal's suddenly became stronger?

That is indeed, interesting. It must take a huge amount of money to move such a big market that much. Expectation was that KdB was likely to play so perhaps some info leaked that he is out?

Capture 47.PNG

[jamesedwards]

Honestly, who thought these stupid new ballboy and ball management rules were a good idea? It's just disrupting the flow of football that they worked so hard to deliver in the last few years.

Idiotic.

[Lynskey888]

Thanks for all the responses guys but injury problems were known about days ago ... if it was that why did the market wait until the early hours of this morning to react. I'm wondering if a bit of insider dealing has taken place (after the night clubs closed!) re the real affect those injuries will have.

Also how do you tell if the sudden change in odds was as a result of MC's chance of winning suddenly became weaker or Arsenal's suddenly became stronger?

I've found that football match odds often change dramatically overnight. My best guess is that these moves are caused by money from south-east Asia coming into the market (irrespective of whether BF is legal in every country in that region.) In trying to trade pre-kickoff, I find it quite unsettling, the idea that you could make the wrong call and the market could move against you while you're asleep!

My trading experience is very limited, but in the short time I've been doing this I've encountered markets where injury news is in the public domain well before kick-off, yet it only seems to affect the price when the team sheet is published. I traded the Bristol City-West Ham FA Cup replay in January. From memory, the tie was on a Tuesday. On the Monday, West Ham held a press conference where it became clear that four or five of their first choice frontline players would be missing as a result of injury and AFCON. I think I heard about it on Sky Sports News. The price against West Ham hardly moved on Monday, but there was a substantial drift the following day in the hours before kick-off.

[jamesedwards]

Thanks for all the responses guys but injury problems were known about days ago ... if it was that why did the market wait until the early hours of this morning to react. I'm wondering if a bit of insider dealing has taken place (after the night clubs closed!) re the real affect those injuries will have.

Also how do you tell if the sudden change in odds was as a result of MC's chance of winning suddenly became weaker or Arsenal's suddenly became stronger?

I've found that football match odds often change dramatically overnight. My best guess is that these moves are caused by money from south-east Asia coming into the market (irrespective of whether BF is legal in every country in that region.)

This would make sense, but it was a sudden shift rather than a gradual one. It's not as though everyone in Asia wakes up at the same time.

[firlandsfarm]

Thanks for all the responses guys but injury problems were known about days ago ... if it was that why did the market wait until the early hours of this morning to react. I'm wondering if a bit of insider dealing has taken place (after the night clubs closed!) re the real affect those injuries will have.

Also how do you tell if the sudden change in odds was as a result of MC's chance of winning suddenly became weaker or Arsenal's suddenly became stronger?

I've found that football match odds often change dramatically overnight. My best guess is that these moves are caused by money from south-east Asia coming into the market (irrespective of whether BF is legal in every country in that region.)

This would make sense, but it was a sudden shift rather than a gradual one. It's not as though everyone in Asia wakes up at the same time.

Yes, it was the sudden move in such a large market that caught my eye. I assume that such a sudden move would require a big chunk of money and what team news do you get around 03:00 in the morning?!

[Derek27]

Strasbourg player slips over in the box and the fans scream penalty.

[firlandsfarm]

Honestly, who thought these stupid new ballboy and ball management rules were a good idea? It's just disrupting the flow of football that they worked so hard to deliver in the last few years.

Idiotic.

I suspect the FA's thinking is to stop the "Ball Assistants" (as they are now called) showing some bias towards one team by returning the ball quickly if their team is a goal down or slowly if their team is a goal ahead.

[Derek27]

We got the momentum graphic, don't know what it means but there it is if you do.

[henbet22]

Looks like smash and grab a set piece here

[jamesedwards]

Honestly, who thought these stupid new ballboy and ball management rules were a good idea? It's just disrupting the flow of football that they worked so hard to deliver in the last few years.

Idiotic.

I suspect the FA's thinking is to stop the "Ball Assistants" (as they are now called) showing some bias towards one team by returning the ball quickly if their team is a goal down or slowly if their team is a goal ahead.

It is. But, for me, the downsides clearly outweigh any benefits.

[henbet22]

Liverpool just gone faves for the title

[Beagle]

Anybody know why Man City price (v's Arsenal) jumped at around 03:00 last night ? They were around 1.98 and suddenly shot up to about 2.15. Can't find anything in the news

The int break has not been kind to them, they have a couple players out and some doubts too

Hi Kai, what website is that screen grab from if you don’t mind me asking.

[Derek27]

I can't believe there are just 2 first half added minutes at Marseille, the VAR and red card must have taken 4!

[Kai]

I've found that football match odds often change dramatically overnight. My best guess is that these moves are caused by money from south-east Asia coming into the market (irrespective of whether BF is legal in every country in that region.) In trying to trade pre-kickoff, I find it quite unsettling, the idea that you could make the wrong call and the market could move against you while you're asleep!

Well you can't expect to make the right call every time so better to get used to that uncertainty asap, before placing any trades you could ask yourself what's the worst thing that can possibly happen, and if you're not okay with that don't place that trade or scale back to whatever you feel comfortable risking