UK General Election **June 8th**

[LeTiss]

What's your take on Scotland, Peter?

I'm staggered at some of the prices on the Tories in a number of constituencies - I didn't think I'd ever see the Conservatives heavy odds on to win a Scottish seat, let alone a handful of them

[ShaunWhite]

I'm pondering a bet on a low turnout. Maybe people just won't vote at all, especially where it's a foregone conclusion?

Under 65% seems safe but 1.38 isn't a working man's price.
60-65 would be my guess. I've posted this before but just fyi again....

[max_usted]

What's your take on Scotland, Peter?

I'm staggered at some of the prices on the Tories in a number of constituencies - I didn't think I'd ever see the Conservatives heavy odds on to win a Scottish seat, let alone a handful of them

Interesting to compare the (many) blue Tory areas on the Scottish electoral map of 25 years ago (1983):



against the (dark) red ('no' to independence vote) in the Scottish referendum:



Certainly I think the southern three constituencies are a very good bet to go Tory - Dumfriesshire/Clydesdale is currently Tory, and Tories were a close second in both Dumfries & Galloway (my part of the world) and Berwickshire/Roxburgh in 2015.

The 1983 blue and 'no' voting areas are rural parts - the SNP are a very urban-orientated left-wing/progressive bunch, though they try some half-hearted centrist posing. It will be interesting to see how these rural areas vote, particularly where there's an older population (many of whom detest SNP).

[LeTiss]

That's interesting reading, thanks for that. I have to be honest, I didn't realise the Tories won so many Scottish seats in 1983

[LeTiss]

What did we learn from last night?

UKIP have lost all their votes to the Tories
Labour are up the creek
Liberal undemocratics are full of piss and wind

It's hard not to see a substantial Tory majority come June 8th

[Euler]

That's more or less how I read it. But I think that maybe turnout could touch record lows if people decide it's a forgone conclusion.

[LeTiss]

Apathy is the only thing that can stop the Tories

The problem for the Lib Dems, is the areas where they are hoping to win back seats, are also areas that significantly voted leave, Cornwall being the prime example

[HRacing]

Surely low voter turnout can only produce some shock victories in some constituencies. I Agree the overall picture is clear but will some tory voters get a bit complacent perhaps?

[Euler]

Scottish ward results so far:

SNP: 21 (-5)
CON: 18 (+11)
LAB: 13 (-3)
IND: 8 (-3)
LDEM: 1 (-1)
GRN: 1 (+1)

[Euler]

Sick of “strong and stable leadership”? Blame brain scans

http://www.economist.com/blogs/speakers ... /te/bl/ed/

[kerberus]

Rubbish Party candidate elected

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-g ... t-39819213

Says it all folks!

Local vernacular/colloquialisms sometimes causes confuision!

[HRacing]

Im done!

[max_usted]

Sick of “strong and stable leadership”? Blame brain scans

http://www.economist.com/blogs/speakers ... /te/bl/ed/

Love the psychologist Jonathan Haidt's analysis of the different emotions/moral centers politicians are appealing to through this kind of sledgehammer sloganeering:

https://www.ted.com/talks/jonathan_haid ... moral_mind

Incidentally, I've also found some of this same psychologist's theorising very helpful towards understanding behaviour/thinking during trading - concepts of a relatively weak rational part of the brain, versus a much more powerful emotional part.

[ShaunWhite]

Liberal undemocratics are full of piss and wind

Presumably you're still referring to your EU 'victory'.

Let's not forget that you won on the decisions of about 1.4% of the total number of registered voters, or 0.97% of the total population. A total count of a rather unimpressive 38% of the electors.

A win's a win, but I'm tired of the crowing about it being 'what the people wanted' when it was by all measures barely a short head.

And now everything's so twisted now we have 'ordinary' people who think their saviours are the tories. Any student of form would know that's b*ll*cks.

[ruthlessimon]

Taking about fairness, Ukip wins 13% of the total votes & gets 0.2% of the seats - defo fair