finding an edge

[ShaunWhite]

You can earn £5k before the charges kick in.

Lifetime, or per week?

[Euler]

Lifetime, but obviously that first hurdle means it's 'only' 20%. If you are smart and you are not near the charge you can run break even commission generating strategies that limit its impact.

I was already miles over the limits when the introduced them so there was little I could do.

[ShaunWhite]

Now I'll be honest I have no such edges apart from the obvious which is listening to live interviews

My question is do you have to have these so called "edges" to make it full time??

If got an issue with the way people take about an 'edge' as though it's something very technically specific. Sure it can be, but an 'edge' can be other things, like patience, reacting quickly, great risk managemnt, having an open mind etc. IMHO. It's anything that tips your chances in any given discipline on the right side of 50/50.

If you're making money, you have an edge or many edges, even if you can't put your finger on what it is.

Technical edges come and go apparently as markets change, so these more enigmatic edges, I think, are more valuable long term.

[ShaunWhite]

Lifetime, but obviously that first hurdle means it's 'only' 20%. If you are smart and you are not near the charge you can run break even commission generating strategies that limit its impact.

I was already miles over the limits when the introduced them so there was little I could do.

Thanks

[spreadbetting]

If got an issue with the way people take about an 'edge' as though it's something very technically specific. Sure it can be, but an 'edge' can be other things, like patience, reacting quickly, great risk managemnt, having an open mind etc. IMHO. It's anything that tips your chances in any given discipline on the right side of 50/50.

If you're making money, you have an edge or many edges, even if you can't put your finger on what it is.

Technical edges come and go apparently as markets change, so these more enigmatic edges, I think, are more valuable long term.

Things like "patience, reacting quickly, great risk managemnt, having an open mind etc" are certainly good skills to have as a trader as they allow you to capitalise and maximise profits your 'edge'. But at the end of the day they won't make you money without some technical 'edge' giving you an idea of where the market is going to move.

Have you ever been on any training courses/bought ebooks etc?

[Euler]

Understanding the markets can give you an edge.

As markets mature you can stay one step ahead if you have seen other markets mature and how they do. I expect to make less margin over time as the markets tighten but knowing how that occurs will allow you to maintain your edge at the highest possible rate. When it shifts, you simply shift in front of it again. Done this on many markets.

If you look at the greyhound markets, they are very inefficient as it stands. So I'm trading them the way I did racing in the early days, by filling gaps.

[ShaunWhite]

If got an issue with the way people take about an 'edge' as though it's something very technically specific. Sure it can be, but an 'edge' can be other things, like patience, reacting quickly, great risk managemnt, having an open mind etc. IMHO. It's anything that tips your chances in any given discipline on the right side of 50/50.

If you're making money, you have an edge or many edges, even if you can't put your finger on what it is.

Technical edges come and go apparently as markets change, so these more enigmatic edges, I think, are more valuable long term.

Things like "patience, reacting quickly, great risk managemnt, having an open mind etc" are certainly good skills to have as a trader as they allow you to capitalise and maximise profits your 'edge'. But at the end of the day they won't make you money without some technical 'edge' giving you an idea of where the market is going to move.

Have you ever been on any training courses/bought ebooks etc?

I won't disgree, you know your stuff.
No formal courses/ebooks, just lots and lots of reading and yt and watching the racing (maybe 3000 mkts) ... but I'm reading things right about 75-80% of the time. I've no idea why, or no reason I could put into hard numbers anyway. I was the same with poker, never really did more than the basic maths but developed a 'feel' and did reasonably well.

I know I should try and quantify it, but my todo list a a long one.

I was, I suppose, just saying that an 'edge' isn't always something that's 100% formulaic. This idea that all you need is an edge that can be known, taught or shared, seems to encourage newbs to look for a magic bullet.

I'll take your advice and try and work on my 'edge', it'll probably be more reliable than just 'feeling the force'

[ShaunWhite]

...before it's said I know that strike rate is vanity and profit is sanity.

[spreadbetting]

This idea that all you need is an edge that can be known, taught or shared, seems to encourage newbs to look for a magic bullet.

To be honest that's where I think new traders should be concentrating their efforts rather than the mindset mantra that seems to be spouted on every trading forum as the main reason why newer traders are still losing. *I guess for anyone selling ebooks/training courses it's generally a lot easier to rehash the mindset side of things rather than giving away your edge, assuming they had one to give away

If we take a somewhat naive view (we'll ignore spreads and comms) that entering the market at random would give you a 50/50 chance then all those mindset/money mangement/'read trading in the zone' type bits of advice on a simple level should get us closer to break even especially if someone is making typical newbie errors of chasing, overstaking etc. With an actual edge that we can replicate, and more importantly understand why it's occuring, we can pass that break even barrier and then those other training attributes come into play as to how much of that edge we'll hold onto.

As for edges that are known, taught or shared I set up a greyhound bot using details from a thread posted on here and whilst it doesn't make a fortune, averaging less than a pound a market, it still makes me around £3K a month due to the volume of markets. That just simply exploits an edge in the market , how long that edge lasts is obviously unknown and whilst my open mind, patience and bots quick reactions etc obviously help exploit it, without the 'edge' there wouldn't be any profit.

* I'm not suggesting you're selling ebooks btw just trying to point out why the mindset side of things is always heavily pushed.

[ShaunWhite]

I wasn't just thinking of it being a straight choice between mindset vs the numbers, infact 'mindset' wasn't in my original list of 'soft' edges at all (excl patience admittedly)

Something like being good as assessing the effect of news, or weather, or a player's temprament when they're under pressure doesn't fall into mindset or stats. They'd be just knowledge, experience(?) or 'skills'. An example would be Hamilton, his lap times tally with how miserable is mardy little face is most of the time or if he's having girlfriend issues.

It also comes down to how much you want to make. If you have high hopes then sure, you need to exploit every angle possible but, if you have modest needs then just being 'quite good' at one thing or another can be a big help without knowing your mathmatical edges to 3dp.

[ruthlessimon]

without knowing your mathmatical edges to 3dp.

I do agree with that one. Let the quants, algos & syndicates fight over the "100,000 samples = 56.862% chance of winning" strategies! Our edge over these participants comes from our intuition/trust/confidence, in the patterns & price action we see in the ladders over time. All of those feelings together create the high probability trades.

[spreadbetting]

Something like being good as assessing the effect of news, or weather, or a player's temprament when they're under pressure doesn't fall into mindset or stats. They'd be just knowledge, experience(?) or 'skills'. An example would be Hamilton, his lap times tally with how miserable is mardy little face is most of the time or if he's having girlfriend issues.

It also comes down to how much you want to make. If you have high hopes then sure, you need to exploit every angle possible but, if you have modest needs then just being 'quite good' at one thing or another can be a big help without knowing your mathmatical edges to 3dp.

All those things can be known, taught and shared though so I'm not sure what point you're trying to infer other than some notion I'm obsessed with stats to 3dp because I mention an average pnl in my post. It's not some kind of intuition that a runners temperament or the weather may affect odds.

[ruthlessimon]

All those things can be known, taught and shared though so I'm not sure what point you're trying to infer other than some notion I'm obsessed with stats to 3dp because I mention an average pnl in my post. It's not some kind of intuition that a runners temperament or the weather may affect odds.

From my experience, generally the best traders I know bf & financials, have what I would call 'fluid processes'. They absolutely can be taught, & importantly can be questioned & falsified with evidence. But they aren't 'razor sharp' edges where each tick matters. There's plenty of wiggle room. An example for his would be trade exits. Something which is just impossible to quantify in code & is highly personal depending on the traders risk profile.

[spreadbetting]

They absolutely can be taught, & importantly can be questioned & falsified with evidence.

Which is basically what I've been saying, without a replicable edge you won't win long term whether after time that becomes second nature and you treat it as intuition is neither here or there but there will be an underlying edge that others could be taught. Exit points, personal risk management aren't really relevant as they only count towards how well you're exploiting any edge you may have.

[ruthlessimon]

Which is basically what I've been saying, without a replicable edge you won't win long term whether after time that becomes second nature and you treat it as intuition is neither here or there but there will be an underlying edge that others could be taught. Exit points, personal risk management aren't really relevant as they only count towards how well you're exploiting any edge you may have.

After I wrote that, I realised there are actually some very decent 'scaling points/order flow' which could definitely be classed as a sort of 'exit edge'. Tbh, I kinda went on a bit of a tangent (algos vs manual). probably deserves its own thread that one