Is pre race dead???

[xtrader16]

Not going to win any friends with my opinion but why change the habit of a lifetime.

It is my opinion that 90% of traders are just providing profits for the 10% who are profitable. 90% of the people who are trading have ZERO idea how and why the markets work. They probably have no idea that automation bots are connected to excel and that people with £100k accounts are controlling every aspect of the ladders. I'd say some people don't even know automation exist.

So, congratulations to the <10% of people who know how it all works but most people are seeing it for what it is. Monetary transference from one group to another and removing cash flow from the markets. I wouldn't go as far to say Betfair Trading is a scam but if you don't have YEARS of experience and somebody hasn't told you EXACTLY what to do, you have next to no chance of becoming profitable.

Automation controls the markets, 100%. Professional Traders have a perfect understanding of the over round and how cross matching works and they have the bank to control how high/low a price can go. If it was up to me I'd have automation files banned from Betfair. Then we are all on a level playing field.

I'd love to know how some of these Excel files work but they are never going to share that sort of information with me, why should they. People are becoming wise to how the Horse Racing markets are played out and legging it with their money. The Risk/Reward of trying to make 3-4 ticks if it goes the other way is awful. There are better ways to lose your money than in Betfair in 2022.

[johnsheppard]

So, congratulations to the <10% of people who know how it all works but most people are seeing it for what it is. Monetary transference from one group to another and removing cash flow from the markets. I wouldn't go as far to say Betfair Trading is a scam but if you don't have YEARS of experience and somebody hasn't told you EXACTLY what to do, you have next to no chance of becoming profitable.

IMO, there are a lot of things wrong with your perspective. It's not even remotely a scam. Every system on earth operates this way....there is no-one there actively stopping people from gaining knowledge? People with more knowledge will always be in a better position to take advantage of those who don't... that's not by design...that's just....how life is...so....be one of the people in the know....or lose your money or don't participate....

The real question is, how big of a supply of people with money and no brains are participating in the markets...they tend to prefer the traditional bookies I presume....

Automation controls the markets, 100%. Professional Traders have a perfect understanding of the over round and how cross matching works and they have the bank to control how high/low a price can go. If it was up to me I'd have automation files banned from Betfair. Then we are all on a level playing field.

Automation doesn't control the market. 100's of factors do. Automation is just one small piece of the puzzle...automation is nothing more than a computer doing what a human does... guarantee you a horse breaking its leg is gonna change the price of market more than any automation will..

I'd love to know how some of these Excel files work but they are never going to share that sort of information with me, why should they. People are becoming wise to how the Horse Racing markets are played out and legging it with their money. The Risk/Reward of trying to make 3-4 ticks if it goes the other way is awful. There are better ways to lose your money than in Betfair in 2022.

How do you think those people came wise in the ways of excel? They worked at it... I don't know how that's any different to how the rest of the world works....you work, you make mistakes, you learn, you sit on your ask, you make mistakes, you don't learn.... that's just how it is....

[ShaunWhite]

It's not Excel, there's plenty of AI and Machine Learning going on too and there has been for years. But in those years there's a large number of manual traders who have continued to make good money and new people have become profitable.

Unless all this automation, simultaneously determines exactly the same price as each other, for each and every horse, at the same time (because 'true' prices are always moving with time), despite them all using different algos, then there will be movement you can trade. And frankly the bigger the banks they're battle with the easier it is to see. And even big automating player have very different strategies, from pricing algos to ones based on market mechanics and pure supply and demand. Nobody dominates and no two 'pro' bots would ever empty their banks to try and get every last pip of profit from each other.

I believe it's 5% who ever see a profit, not 10%. If you banned bots the markets would dry up, manual traders generally offer very little to the market while a medium size bot would be easily putting up several millions a month, and without big money bots disagreeing there wouldn't be so much for regular players to get their teeth into at the prices either might be offering.

"Then we are all on a level playing field. " Nope, everyone would still have different levels of knowledge and ability.

Yeah there's bots and everyone knows that's not changing, so personally I've spent 1000s of unpaid hours over several years, learning, then programming, taking maths courses and analysing, because I thought there might be an opportunity. And it's been *** hard because I have a 57yo brain and aren't some young wizzkid. Zero 'fun', zero wages. It was a gamble because that what I do and it's paying off now. I don't really understand why my work should be banned just because I'm making more effort than someone else and living in 2022 instead of 2012, or being blamed for the world just being a bit harder than it was.

[ShaunWhite]

Same hymn sheet john, I needn't have bothered typing mine.

[johnsheppard]

How much does the decrease in volume concern you guys regarding the future of the exchange?

Nothing is certain but I spoke to Betfair about this recently and the feeling is that the worst of the decline is over. It's been predominantly down to the new affordablity checks but of course the current economic situation isn't helping. They're currently opeining up new sources of liquidity in the Indian subcontinent and Asia, and although it won't all flow though to our pool, every little helps and the intention and investment are a positive sign. Cricket and football are the likely recipients of that money of course. The takeaway is that if you want some sort of longer term security then it would be a good idea to diversify, UK horses have limited appeal these days and it's hard to see how that's going to change.

I'm sure this has probably been discussed before, but if we make the assumption that Betfair fails and goes broke. Surely, another company would take their place right?

[ShaunWhite]

I'm sure this has probably been discussed before, but if we make the assumption that Betfair fails and goes broke. Surely, another company would take their place right?

Nature, and business, abhors a vacuum. If there's a dollar to be had there'll be someone there to pick it up.

[wearthefoxhat]

No one said it was easy...

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[Euler]

One thing that that trading has taught me, is that the biggest battle people have is not with the market, but with themselves.

If you fail to come to terms with the market you will never be able to work within it. It's always somebody else's fault that you lost money. Some great conspiracy about how the market is skewed against you.

I've taught lots of people, including my own children, and this is the number one problem I see. People who can't detach themselves from a market end up getting bullied by it.

Everybody trots out this 95% of people lose, but there is no evidence that this is the case on financial markets and especially in Betfair trading, where you can go toe to toe with anybody with minimal transactional costs.

It's been one of the best opportunities I've seen in my career. But yet people will keep trying to convince you otherwise. That in itself gave me extra insight into how the market really works.

People often overlook the simplest things.

[ShaunWhite]

No one said it was easy...

The nature of the game means you're below your all-time high more often than setting a new high. It's the feeling you need to get back up there all the time which can make someone with a decent strategy go on tilt. And we all usually learn by the fall down/it hurts method, but on any given day you can do it right and lose, or do it wrong and win. It can be a fortnight between doing and seeing how you're doing.

[ShaunWhite]

, where you can go toe to toe with anybody... .

I'd settle for toe to toe but every market is toe to everyone else's toes. There's no easy kick around in the park, every game is vs champions.

I thought the 95%/5% figure had some credence? But I've also always thought that every ounce of effort improves that by a point. So exclude the non-tryers, the idiots, the people with no determination or no time etc etc and that's wiped out 80%. You're then looking at 5 out of 20 rather than 5 out of 100. Only 5% might succeed but if only 10% actually, genuinely try then the odds don't look too bad.

[xtrader16]

I believe it's 5% who ever see a profit, not 10%. If you banned bots the markets would dry up, manual traders generally offer very little to the market while a medium size bot would be easily putting up several millions a month, and without big money bots disagreeing there wouldn't be so much for regular players to get their teeth into at the prices either might be offering.

I agree with this. At least it is telling the truth. The only thing I would say is that there are BOTS and automation files out there who are providing fake liquidity in to the ladders. They are setting up positions say between 3.05 and 3.4 and then pulling those funds from the market when another position is triggered making it look like Horse A is getting backed in when in fact it is just the removal of funding at these prices. It is not getting money matched it is manipulation and the people with the most knowledge and power who are taking the money off others. As you said...the 5%.

I have always said I'd love to see a column on the ladder that shows what % of money actually gets matched at a certain price compared to how much was actually entered.

Example. Price 3.25 has £30k entered over the course of the day but only 33% of this was ever matched. across the market it would give us a better understanding of where the money actually is rather than what it looks like. So it would say only 33% of the money entered at 3.25 was ever matched today and 67% was pulled.

There is just to much inconsistency in the markets for it to be traded as a manual trader and for somebody to be consistently profitable - I am open minded enough to be proved wrong.

[xtrader16]

Everybody trots out this 95% of people lose, but there is no evidence that this is the case on financial markets and especially in Betfair trading, where you can go toe to toe with anybody with minimal transactional costs.

Hi Euler.

There is actually quite a lot of evidence that people who trade financial markets lose money as it is a legal requirement to advise people who trade on these platform that they are told how many losing accounts there are. i.e 78% of accounts on this platform lose money is plastered all over the front of every trading website.

It is the inconsistency of the ladders that's gets to me really.

[Euler]

I know, but as you state, it's not 95%. It's publically available information that it's not, but people keep throwing out that 95% figure.

[ShaunWhite]

There's fake money, but that's a dangerous game. Cancelling/recycling offers seems fair enough, value is always relative to the current price so if that moves then your offer should too. Its then a matter of hoping someone wants enough on that they'll take the offer you've been keeping 2 ticks away. It's the market noise that makes these 'fake' offers turn into wise ones.

It's the complexity and unknowablity that makes this such a brilliant and engaging job, and why it can easily occupy all your waking hours. I used to always start my day with fags and coffee now I'll sometimes reach for my notebook before the kettle!

[xtrader16]

I just think Automation should be banned from Betfair then everybody is on a level playing field - I know there will be 100 reasons why you wont agree but eventually it will eat itself and the exchange will be dead as non-auto people walk away.

I will admit to being a bit bitter about not being able to consistently make a profit with manual trading even though I understand almost everything there is to know about how/when/when things move. I am constantly undermined by bigger automated accounts pulling the other way then pushing it back to where it should be.

Just look at how must everything comes to a complete stop after 00:00:00. This is the clearest indication that the automation files are 90% (made up figure) of the turnover.