Is pre race dead???

[auto-matt]

Hi guys, haven’t traded for around 2/3 years now due to a change in job, but my hours are more relaxed now and have found myself wandering back to the pre race markets. During that time seen endless talk over social media and forums about the pre race markets being dead due to it being to botty etc, and many other sports with big name traders packing up there ball and calling it a day. Is this just coming from sceptics who have got no skin in the game or traders who haven’t evolved as the years have passed. Interested to hear peoples thoughts before I commit to the markets again.

[Trader Pat]

The markets have definitely changed but there's still money to be made whether you're a manual or auto trader.

Volume is down pre-race and liquidity isn't what it used to be and imo the markets are a bit more erratic and unpredictable at times but you just have to adjust your trading style. Sometimes more opportunities are created because of that so it's not all bad. There seem to be a lot of people though who are very set in their ways and find it hard to adjust so for people like that trading is going to be difficult anyway and especially when markets conditions change.

There are some big traders scaling back or calling it a day like Mark Iverson (https://www.markiverson.com/latest-news ) but like I said there's still money to be made, you just might have to work a little harder for it.

[ShaunWhite]

It's competitive and its hindered by declining volume but its far from dead. There's just too many ways to approach it for there to ever be a complete lack of opportunity. Automation always gets blamed but people have been doing that at a high level for years so although it's news to some it's old news. Yes some high profile people have quit but when someone doesn't think 6 figures are enough or they moan because they have feed to pay (although their income is still free of tax) then I can't take much they say very seriously.

[eightbo]

+1 agree with only the first sentence from Shaun -- Not dead, cash still well and truly flowing, plenty to go round rn.
If it's not enough find more edges, explore more marktets, no worries, 24/7 diversification

PS disagree with 2nd part, I'd be reaching for the notepad and pen if someone's already on 6fig with aspirations to push higher, even if didn't see the world in the same way as them they're doing something right so why not listen to what they say turn it into an opportunity

[ShaunWhite]

+1 agree with only the first sentence from Shaun -- Not dead, cash still well and truly flowing, plenty to go round rn.
If it's not enough find more edges, explore more marktets, no worries, 24/7 diversification

PS disagree with 2nd part, I'd be reaching for the notepad and pen if someone's already on 6fig with aspirations to push higher, even if didn't see the world in the same way as them they're doing something right so why not listen to what they say turn it into an opportunity

I meant that just because a few big shots decide to move away it doesn't mean there aren't opportunities for people with more modest aspersions. And personally my reaction when someone big leaves for that reason is 'good" because it leaves more in the pot for everyone else. It might be simplistic but so long as markets move there'll be chance to make a profit.. And if they don't move then scalping might come back into fashion.

[Euler]

Volumes have fallen in a number of markets, but there is still a LOT of money on the table.

The people who are doing well are the ones who work hard to maintain, build or find new edges. Lots of people drop out over time. I could name loads of people who have given up for one reason or another.

Credit to Mark for going public with his decision. Lots of people just change their focus from trading to offering advice about trading when times get tough. So lots of respect for the way Mark has conducted himself in his career and at the end of it.

I think Cricket and other in play sports often see a lot of attrition as people battle for the fastest feeds.

[ShaunWhite]

... given up for one reason or another.

Probably fair to say that there's a few who start young, make good money, and then persue something they perhaps have more passion for. If I were 30 I don't think I'd relish the idea of the next 30yrs in front of a screen and it's quite common for people to use trading as a way to fund a lifestyle rather than it being their lifestyle. What it isn't though is easy money, so expect to put the same effort into it as you'd put into any significant job or career and the odds of success will probably be about the same.

[Euler]

Y, you see this a lot. Especially with young people. When things get harder and the easy money is gone, they just move onto something else. But the reality of life is the harder you work, the better your results. Anything worthwhile deserves some effort.

In the last ten years I've seen people skip from Betfair trading, to Crypto and whatever the next easy money with no risk or effort scheme is.

There is always opportunity in many things, its just a question of whether you want the return the effort required to get it.

[jimibt]

In the last ten years I've seen people skip from Betfair trading, to Crypto and whatever the next easy money with no risk or effort scheme is.

shyly lifts his hand .

that said, i approach crypto akin to the forex/futures markets and for that reason, nothing in the prior 6-7 years in BF was wasted. the secret is knowing how to judge your R:R, especially if you apply leverage into the equation. As for crypto in the spot markets, i got far too many highs and lows due to my lack of experience (at the time) and looking for moonshots and thus felt like a total gamble. doubtful if I'll ever touch the spot markets again when the long/short opportunities in futures offer up so much...

just my take!

[edit] - fwiw, i'm using a pretty great 3rd party TA library in .net which not only does all the standard MACD/Williams%R/EMA etc, etc stuff, it also uses a machine learning tool that classifies candle formations thus helping to recognise (in code) bullish and bearish short term moves. as with BF, exposure in the market is the enemy and therefore bank management (stops and TP's) is the top priority. so to reiterate, my skip from BF->blockchain based markets was actually fairly easy, due to the diligence I applied in the previous 7 years. That same anal approach is now at work in my futures endevours.. will keep y'all posted

[wearthefoxhat]

Hi guys, haven’t traded for around 2/3 years now due to a change in job, but my hours are more relaxed now and have found myself wandering back to the pre race markets. During that time seen endless talk over social media and forums about the pre race markets being dead due to it being to botty etc, and many other sports with big name traders packing up there ball and calling it a day. Is this just coming from sceptics who have got no skin in the game or traders who haven’t evolved as the years have passed. Interested to hear peoples thoughts before I commit to the markets again.

Yep, def worth your while. I'm mainly In-play, but when there are certain conditions pre, I'm in like flynn.

My best result(s) have been building a position overnight on a market, after identifying a selection, and exiting near the off time.

Traders, big and small, will come and go, that shouldn't affect your decision from getting stuck in.

[Euler]

In the last ten years I've seen people skip from Betfair trading, to Crypto and whatever the next easy money with no risk or effort scheme is.

shyly lifts his hand .

I wouldn't begrude a real trader playing in these markets. My comment was aimed more at the people who flit between markets hoping for easy money, not people applying a bit of graft and thought.

That .net package sound's interesting what is it called?

[jimibt]

In the last ten years I've seen people skip from Betfair trading, to Crypto and whatever the next easy money with no risk or effort scheme is.

shyly lifts his hand .

I wouldn't begrude a real trader playing in these markets. My comment was aimed more at the people who flit between markets hoping for easy money, not people applying a bit of graft and thought.

That .net package sound's interesting what is it called?

sure, it's called Skender Indicators: https://daveskender.github.io/Stock.Ind ... ndicators/ (also a Nuget package) it's pretty easy to get to grips with and uses any source that can be formatted as OHLCV data. without this, I'd be trying to roll all of this myself which not only would be counterproductive, but would also result in a huge number of data anomaly cases that would cause my testing to be literally my main focus!! this lib takes me into the fight with a high level of confidence.

[ShaunWhite]

But the reality of life is the harder you work, the better your results. Anything worthwhile deserves some effort.

... Now get on with your homework!

Your comment sounded well rehearsed. I bet you like me, you feel like you spent a decade saying that to the kids. Trouble is Peter we make life look so effortless they don't realise how much pedalling we're doing.

[auto-matt]

Thanks for the feedback guys much appreciated. Kind of got the responses I was expecting.

Doesn’t feel like much has changed too significantly since I have started dipping my toes back in.

How much does the decrease in volume concern you guys regarding the future of the exchange?

Going back to eulers post I suppose that is one of the benefits of pre race you are not fighting for the fastest feed.

[ShaunWhite]

How much does the decrease in volume concern you guys regarding the future of the exchange?

Nothing is certain but I spoke to Betfair about this recently and the feeling is that the worst of the decline is over. It's been predominantly down to the new affordablity checks but of course the current economic situation isn't helping. They're currently opeining up new sources of liquidity in the Indian subcontinent and Asia, and although it won't all flow though to our pool, every little helps and the intention and investment are a positive sign. Cricket and football are the likely recipients of that money of course. The takeaway is that if you want some sort of longer term security then it would be a good idea to diversify, UK horses have limited appeal these days and it's hard to see how that's going to change.