I'm guilty of that but I'll row back given what you say. The only concrete evidence I have is a first hand comment from within Betfair (Neil) that it's "very few" so it didn't seem like an unreasonable estimate.
Is pre race dead???
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ShaunWhite
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The real number is closer to 70/30ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Jun 04, 2022 1:09 pmI'm guilty of that but I'll row back given what you say. The only concrete evidence I have is a first hand comment from within Betfair (Neil) that it's "very few" so it didn't seem like an unreasonable estimate.
I've had information shared with me that I can't publish. But people get this whole it's really hard and very few make money thing, very wrong.
But just think about it for a second.
If you just blunder up to the markets with no plan, and have a few quid in bets a year. Then the long term prospect of being a loser is very high.
If you put a bit of effort in, then you immediately elevate yourself above that. The largest number of losers are in that prior group, which distorts the overall number by a large margin.
But most people that just try a bit harder do much better. It's just that a lot of people, as a percentage of that user base, don't try harder.
But just think about it for a second.
If you just blunder up to the markets with no plan, and have a few quid in bets a year. Then the long term prospect of being a loser is very high.
If you put a bit of effort in, then you immediately elevate yourself above that. The largest number of losers are in that prior group, which distorts the overall number by a large margin.
But most people that just try a bit harder do much better. It's just that a lot of people, as a percentage of that user base, don't try harder.
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Trader Pat
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So you want to deny others a living because of your own shortcomings?
Hate to break it to you but obviously you don't.
If you did understand almost everything about the market like you say then you would be able to see through the noise.
Sorry If I come across as a prick but practically every post you've ever put on the forum is a negative one. Blaming everything from the market and automation to everyone because they won't tell you how to be profitable. You'll never crack trading with that attitude.
Not true. You don't need much of a bank to catch these (but yes the people making big bucks are all automated)
By the way, there are MANY very intelligent people (automated) who cant make it pay either.
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ShaunWhite
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This is an interesting topic, and i'd just add a few thoughts from my experience.
1) I actually knew what I know now about a year ago, unfortunately the "pineapple" I see now I thought was a "lemon" a year ago...
2) I was processing the "lemon" in a wrong way, through the wrong glasses
3) Now that I see it's a "pineapple", so many comments from respected traders make an awful lot more sense...
4) Problem is the "lemon" will look like a "lime" next month, or maybe even a "grape", all I can do is look at the market through the right glasses and adapt..
The moral of this story, a year a go "I should have gone to Specsavers"
I served my apprenticeship in financial markets where I seemed to be the worst short term trader in history. It felt like the market was actively working against me, was fixed and it was impossible to make money.
When I started trading on Betfair I knew exactly what to do and that gave me a leg up on others, having suffered the indignity of my hopeless attempt of trading on financials.
I'll never forget the penny dropping on what my actual objective was in the markets. When I discovered this I looked at things completely differently and haven't looked back. It also made me look at life differently as well.
It was worth the initial pain and effort.
When I started trading on Betfair I knew exactly what to do and that gave me a leg up on others, having suffered the indignity of my hopeless attempt of trading on financials.
I'll never forget the penny dropping on what my actual objective was in the markets. When I discovered this I looked at things completely differently and haven't looked back. It also made me look at life differently as well.
It was worth the initial pain and effort.
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wearthefoxhat
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goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 04, 2022 7:32 pmThis is an interesting topic, and i'd just add a few thoughts from my experience.
1) I actually knew what I know now about a year ago, unfortunately the "pineapple" I see now I thought was a "lemon" a year ago...
2) I was processing the "lemon" in a wrong way, through the wrong glasses
3) Now that I see it's a "pineapple", so many comments from respected traders make an awful lot more sense...
4) Problem is the "lemon" will look like a "lime" next month, or maybe even a "grape", all I can do is look at the market through the right glasses and adapt..
The moral of this story, a year a go "I should have gone to Specsavers"
Hmmm, feeling a bit peckish now...
Shouldn't it be 99.5% lose and only 0.5% win as Betfair's website says: "In addition to the other charges detailed above, a small number (less than 0.5%) of our most successful customers will incur Premium Charges."ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Jun 04, 2022 12:42 pmI thought the 95%/5% figure had some credence? But I've also always thought that every ounce of effort improves that by a point. So exclude the non-tryers, the idiots, the people with no determination or no time etc etc and that's wiped out 80%. You're then looking at 5 out of 20 rather than 5 out of 100. Only 5% might succeed but if only 10% actually, genuinely try then the odds don't look too bad.
Surely anyone making decent money can't avoid eventually hitting PC no matter what strategy they use to delay it.
Like you say probably 90-95% of total accounts aren't taking it seriously or even using software though, so anyone that tries seriously for 1 year+ probably does have more like 5-10% chance of succeeding
(1) Almost without exception the favourite always has more money on it than it's price implies. Therefore all the others are skewed by this.If the IV is negative I will look to back that Horse as it must represent value in the market.
When the Clock hits 00:01:55 the money from the automation bots flies in and I assess the movement and trade accordingly.
(2) It's not bots per see, it is hedging that you are seeing. You should trade out before this kicks in or exploit what is about to happen.
That are so many strategies to deploy in the market, you shouldn't use just one on every race. You should vary your approach according to what you expect to see.