Hi guys, im new here but im studying trading world since few months.. i found some strategies around the web and tried to apply them with bad results.. in particular im doing research matches and backing the team that i suppose could win/score first in the game, and cash put after the goal comes in or if the other team score i cash out with a loss, or if it is a draw i exit around 70' with a loss too.. i was using like 10 pounds stakes and to be honest i was doing pretty well with 60+ profit in a week but it got worse and lost about 45 with a remaining profit of 15 pounds..
At this point i am a bit confused about if this could be a good trading strategy, or if i am looking for wrong things on prematch research.. any tips?
Im trying to learn trading
Two tips:Vanker71 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:19 amHi guys, im new here but im studying trading world since few months.. i found some strategies around the web and tried to apply them with bad results.. in particular im doing research matches and backing the team that i suppose could win/score first in the game, and cash put after the goal comes in or if the other team score i cash out with a loss, or if it is a draw i exit around 70' with a loss too.. i was using like 10 pounds stakes and to be honest i was doing pretty well with 60+ profit in a week but it got worse and lost about 45 with a remaining profit of 15 pounds..
At this point i am a bit confused about if this could be a good trading strategy, or if i am looking for wrong things on prematch research.. any tips?
1) it takes more than a week to know if your strategy has an edge
2) price is important
In your opinion it could be a valid strategy? Because i heard only about strategies that involve time decay on unders. People say that the research process is much mote important than the strategyAnbell wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:51 amTwo tips:Vanker71 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:19 amHi guys, im new here but im studying trading world since few months.. i found some strategies around the web and tried to apply them with bad results.. in particular im doing research matches and backing the team that i suppose could win/score first in the game, and cash put after the goal comes in or if the other team score i cash out with a loss, or if it is a draw i exit around 70' with a loss too.. i was using like 10 pounds stakes and to be honest i was doing pretty well with 60+ profit in a week but it got worse and lost about 45 with a remaining profit of 15 pounds..
At this point i am a bit confused about if this could be a good trading strategy, or if i am looking for wrong things on prematch research.. any tips?
1) it takes more than a week to know if your strategy has an edge
2) price is important
Every strategy is valid if the price is right.Vanker71 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:37 amIn your opinion it could be a valid strategy? Because i heard only about strategies that involve time decay on unders. People say that the research process is much mote important than the strategyAnbell wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:51 amTwo tips:Vanker71 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:19 amHi guys, im new here but im studying trading world since few months.. i found some strategies around the web and tried to apply them with bad results.. in particular im doing research matches and backing the team that i suppose could win/score first in the game, and cash put after the goal comes in or if the other team score i cash out with a loss, or if it is a draw i exit around 70' with a loss too.. i was using like 10 pounds stakes and to be honest i was doing pretty well with 60+ profit in a week but it got worse and lost about 45 with a remaining profit of 15 pounds..
At this point i am a bit confused about if this could be a good trading strategy, or if i am looking for wrong things on prematch research.. any tips?
1) it takes more than a week to know if your strategy has an edge
2) price is important
And I also think that this is the best starting point assumption: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/efficient- ... efficient/
Unfortunately in this area assumptions are worthless. You have to measure everything and know everything in figures.
You need to create a model that estimates the correct price as accurately as possible.
The fact that you've been studying for a few months and haven't picked up the basics means that you're not doing what it takes to progress.
Be aware that knowing something but not enough is more dangerous than knowing nothing.
Choose your niche carefully because that dictates who your competitors will be, and never underestimate them like you already have.
Most things are simple but you need to know when, what to do and what not to do, however simple, and that's for you to figure out and you won't succeed without hard work and commitment.
You need to create a model that estimates the correct price as accurately as possible.
The fact that you've been studying for a few months and haven't picked up the basics means that you're not doing what it takes to progress.
Be aware that knowing something but not enough is more dangerous than knowing nothing.
Choose your niche carefully because that dictates who your competitors will be, and never underestimate them like you already have.
Most things are simple but you need to know when, what to do and what not to do, however simple, and that's for you to figure out and you won't succeed without hard work and commitment.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Where's the strategy? You're just backing and laying when there is/isn't a goal, and because markets are efficient you're just ending up with a load of bets at reasonably fair prices.
Anyone can think of some sort of back/lay/time/goal/blah/blah/blah strategy but the only important thing when you're betting is getting advantageous prices. "Trading" doesn't make 2 bets anything other than 2 bets no matter how you dress it up.
Anyone can think of some sort of back/lay/time/goal/blah/blah/blah strategy but the only important thing when you're betting is getting advantageous prices. "Trading" doesn't make 2 bets anything other than 2 bets no matter how you dress it up.
Wow really nice, thanks a lot manAnbell wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:44 amEvery strategy is valid if the price is right.
And I also think that this is the best starting point assumption: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/efficient- ... efficient/
Very thanks i was ignoring a fundamental part of this world... i will study very hard because understood that have a lot to learn, can you suggest me some video or article ?Trader724 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 11:24 amUnfortunately in this area assumptions are worthless. You have to measure everything and know everything in figures.
You need to create a model that estimates the correct price as accurately as possible.
The fact that you've been studying for a few months and haven't picked up the basics means that you're not doing what it takes to progress.
Be aware that knowing something but not enough is more dangerous than knowing nothing.
Choose your niche carefully because that dictates who your competitors will be, and never underestimate them like you already have.
Most things are simple but you need to know when, what to do and what not to do, however simple, and that's for you to figure out and you won't succeed without hard work and commitment.
You're completely right, and it was a big newbie mistake.. but the thing is how can i stimate the "right price" i mean is out of there a software that help me to stimate things like if a goal comes in how the odds changes or i should paper trade until i find the right one that consent me to be profitable in the long run? Im sorry if my question are "stupid" but i am trying to understand things that never have beforeShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 12:37 pmWhere's the strategy? You're just backing and laying when there is/isn't a goal, and because markets are efficient you're just ending up with a load of bets at reasonably fair prices.
Anyone can think of some sort of back/lay/time/goal/blah/blah/blah strategy but the only important thing when you're betting is getting advantageous prices. "Trading" doesn't make 2 bets anything other than 2 bets no matter how you dress it up.
Say you take something like soccer mystic from BA, that plots the theoretical price decays...Vanker71 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:35 pmWow really nice, thanks a lot manAnbell wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:44 amEvery strategy is valid if the price is right.
And I also think that this is the best starting point assumption: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/efficient- ... efficient/
Where do think value prices might be?
At this stage you need to absorb as much information as possible, google everything you are interested in because there is a lot of educational material, don't buy anything because you won't get much more information than what is available for free.
If you are passionate about it and you become dedicated to it you will naturally find your way and the fact that you will have more and more work to do is a good indicator that you are doing the right thing.
lets assume that im trading time decay on under 2.5 in the first 10 minutes , the "value" would be in the highest price that i could get at the start maybe so i can wait for the price to decrease and cash out with a profit... am i right? In this scenario i would avoid prices that start alredy small (1.15 for example) but i should try to find a price high ath the point that consents to me to make profit in the long run by covering losses or part of them etc... is my thinking right? If it is how can i do that? I mean i should use a demo account or somethinggoat68 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 11:08 pmSay you take something like soccer mystic from BA, that plots the theoretical price decays...Vanker71 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:35 pmWow really nice, thanks a lot manAnbell wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:44 am
Every strategy is valid if the price is right.
And I also think that this is the best starting point assumption: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/efficient- ... efficient/
Where do think value prices might be?
Thank you a lot manTrader724 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:25 amAt this stage you need to absorb as much information as possible, google everything you are interested in because there is a lot of educational material, don't buy anything because you won't get much more information than what is available for free.
If you are passionate about it and you become dedicated to it you will naturally find your way and the fact that you will have more and more work to do is a good indicator that you are doing the right thing.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
No. Value is simply obtaining a price better or worse than the real world likelihood of an event happening. regardless of it being 100/1 or 1.1. Eg 2.0 on a coin toss isn't value, 2.2 would be.
But value aside, the best football traders (ie people such as Psychoff & Paulo Rebelo and others ) use their experience and judgement to watch what's occurring in a game (action, inactivity, apathy, incentive, injuries etc etc) to decide when to bet. Eg if you're trading time decay then a boring game is ideal, end to end action probably isn't.
okay i was completely wrong... but with this assumption how can i get a value price in a scenario of time decay for example? How could i know if a price is good or bad? How can i know the REAL value of something like under/over? This seems a bit difficult to meShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Jul 04, 2022 11:59 amNo. Value is simply obtaining a price better or worse than the real world likelihood of an event happening. regardless of it being 100/1 or 1.1. Eg 2.0 on a coin toss isn't value, 2.2 would be.
But value aside, the best football traders (ie people such as Psychoff & Paulo Rebelo and others ) use their experience and judgement to watch what's occurring in a game (action, inactivity, apathy, incentive, injuries etc etc) to decide when to bet. Eg if you're trading time decay then a boring game is ideal, end to end action probably isn't.
The problem is that i looked at trading in the wrong way for all of this time