Finding value on Betfair racing

[Jon383]

Greetings,

This is my first post after years of trading and betting on Australian horse racing and tennis (mainly with Bet Angel).

Having discarded far too many strategies and wild ideas, I have come to the point whereby I believe I have soundly grasped just how essential it is to find value in picking a horse or else failure is, in my view, a certainty.
As a racing enthusiast, I would be keen to hear how other bettors and traders locate value in their selections. If I could be assured of being able to adequately pin down approx10-15% above the SP odds at the post then I'm confident that my results would improve dramatically.
The problem of course comes down to the shifting relativity of 'value' over time and public opinion on an exchange. Also, how is it possible to tell the difference between a drifting horse pre-off and an overlooked horse that has real value on the track? Unfortunately I cant use a sharp bookie such as Pinnacle as a guide as I focus on Aust. racing but is there any other intelligent way to both locate value and then lock it in for (hopefully) a profit

If anyone would be kind enough to explain how to consistently nail down value so that it can be automated, Id love to hear about it. It seems to me that even if one has a crap betting strategy, as long as you are betting on consistent value then you will profit long term. Is there some way to use Bet Angel in order to do this?

thanks in advance
Jon (Oz)

[jamesedwards]

Greetings,

This is my first post after years of trading and betting on Australian horse racing and tennis (mainly with Bet Angel).

Having discarded far too many strategies and wild ideas, I have come to the point whereby I believe I have soundly grasped just how essential it is to find value in picking a horse or else failure is, in my view, a certainty.
As a racing enthusiast, I would be keen to hear how other bettors and traders locate value in their selections. If I could be assured of being able to adequately pin down approx10-15% above the SP odds at the post then I'm confident that my results would improve dramatically.
The problem of course comes down to the shifting relativity of 'value' over time and public opinion on an exchange. Also, how is it possible to tell the difference between a drifting horse pre-off and an overlooked horse that has real value on the track? Unfortunately I cant use a sharp bookie such as Pinnacle as a guide as I focus on Aust. racing but is there any other intelligent way to both locate value and then lock it in for (hopefully) a profit

If anyone would be kind enough to explain how to consistently nail down value so that it can be automated, Id love to hear about it. It seems to me that even if one has a crap betting strategy, as long as you are betting on consistent value then you will profit long term. Is there some way to use Bet Angel in order to do this?

thanks in advance
Jon (Oz)

You need an edge over the market. Some examples of an edge in horse racing could be; (for pre-off) - insider knowledge, expert market reading, expert form reading, unique pictures/trading from the track, (for in-running) - expert race reading, reduced latency pictures/trading from the track, expert jockey or track knowledge.

[Anbell]

If I could be assured of being able to adequately pin down approx10-15% above the SP odds at the post then I'm confident that my results would improve dramatically.

If you could do that regularly then you'd be rich beyond your wildest dreams

[ShaunWhite]

If I could be assured of being able to adequately pin down approx10-15% above the SP odds at the post then I'm confident that my results would improve dramatically.

If you could do that regularly then you'd be rich beyond your wildest dreams

1.0% to 1.5% would be more realistic.

Approaches to value. Fundamental analysis, Selecting individual horses, studying form, inside knowledge etc. Imo that's time consuming, small scale but potentially a decent RoI. Really hard to automate as you'll need to pull in fundamental data and model prices.

Or using automation's ability to work at scale (every runner in every race) ie and get into the very small but very large scale opportunities around effecient market hypothesis (emhl). Ie the theory that every price is actually correct at any time and with enough fills at a fraction better than the prevailing price then you'll obtain overall value ie HFT.

Or again using another of automation's strengths, use technical analysis (ie price data not data about the selection) and use price momentum indicators to explore supply and demand which is the driver of price movement.

Genrally though if you plan to automate and don't have an existing manual edge to base it on, you'll need historical data and a reasonable data analysis skills/techniques. Otherwise you're left trying things live and that can get expensive, and it's painfully slow building a representative sample. It can range from scrapped info from websites, the free low granularity price data Betfair provide and using Excel; To using APIs to obtain the fundamental and price data, maybe stroring the entire price stream and using sophisticated trading simulators that run years of trading in hours, machine learning etc.

Automation isn't easy, imo it's harder than manual trading. And its not surprising that a passive income is harder to find than if you sit at your desk working. Consider what it can do in terms of scale that a manual trader could never do but also remember there's things a manual trader does that it can't.

[decomez6]

Greetings,

It seems to me that even if one has a crap betting strategy, as long as you are betting on consistent value then you will profit long term. Is there some way to use Bet Angel in order to do this?

a crap betting strategy with consistent value ?.. yes bet angel can do this

only profitable:

- after commission
-running costs.
-individual hourly rates , depending on your missed opportunities on other employment.

The BIG QUESTION ?
how do traders loose money in efficient markets (ZERO sum game)

lack of :
1 . commitment
2. strategy
3. time
4. ignorance
5. arrogance

[Jon383]

Thanks for the responses. Much appreciated.

I am reasonably confident in terms of my selections and am now in profit fairly consistently but there are times when severe variance makes me question whether or not I am likely heading for a crash longer term It would be reassuring to know that I am finding value thus safeguarding against this happening. It sounds as if automation based on securing value is a huge undertaking so I wont go there.

If anyone knows of a way to secure value aside from my questionable method of placing a back order at15% above SP at the starting post and hope its filled in play please let me know.

cheers
Jon

[ShaunWhite]

aside from my questionable method of placing a back order at15% above SP at the starting post and hope its filled in play please let me know.

At best that would break even (and lose commision). At the moment you get your offer matched it would be an sp+15% shot. Same with laying at sp-15% or any other number. Even an odds-on favourite that hits 100/1 in running is 100/1 when someone accepts that price.

With trading or betting you have to beat a price in the future not one in the past.

[ShaunWhite]

I am reasonably confident in terms of my selections and am now in profit fairly consistently but there are times when severe variance makes me question whether or not I am likely heading for a crash longer term

How does your varience compare with your avg gain? You can measure your 'drawdown' ie the amount the PL is down from the last high point. If that starts to look like maybe 14 average day's profits deep or whatever your comfort zone is then it might not be varience you can live with yet.

[decomez6]

placing a back order at15% above SP at the starting post and hope its filled in play .. reasonably confident in terms of my selections and am now in profit fairly consistently.

consistently beating the selection SP above 15 % , not an easy task , requires a great deal of market selection skills.
- by design then , no need to change a winning team .

- by default :
1. . check the market base rate .( in play markets are driven by fundamentals while pre-off are ZERO sum game )

2. check the performance of your ODDS against their expected value .

3. don't get fooled by randomness... strike rate and how much you win when you win , against when you loose.
if still profiting when the Variance is reeking havoc , you must be on to something special.

It sounds as if automation based on securing value is a huge undertaking so I wont go there.

automation is the easiest part .

[ilovepizza82]

Some people suggested if you constantly lay a horse at around (cant remember now exactly) -18% BSP then you would make money.
Whether its true or not...

[jamesedwards]

It seems there is confusion here. Beating SP is a sure way to the rich house...if you are doing it before the off. If you're just blindly matching anything at x% above SP after the off then you are guaranteed negative expected return in the long run. You'll be very quickly picked off for anything giving away value, while the better bets for you are more likely to be left unmatched.

[ShaunWhite]

Some people suggested if you constantly lay a horse at around (cant remember now exactly) -18% BSP then you would make money.
Whether its true or not...

So how much money do you see traded at that price? If that's true then all of these "some people' are betting about a pound each. How can they even have the front to say that when the evidence of them doing it or not is on everyone's screen