Do successful trading strategies have a shelf life?

[JCJ89]

Let's say you have a strategy that earns you a healthy profit and does so over a year-long period - nothing crazy but enough to supplement your regular salary.

Can strategies be spoiled or thwarted? Or is it a case of if it works, it works.

[Derek27]

Let's say you have a strategy that earns you a healthy profit and does so over a year-long period - nothing crazy but enough to supplement your regular salary.

Can strategies be spoiled or thwarted? Or is it a case of if it works, it works.

Strategies have a shelf life, but traders don't. We're always modifying what we do, looking for new opportunities, but as with all aspects of life, when one door closes another opens.

[ShaunWhite]

It's not a yes/no thing. Some fade, some just keep going for years. It depends what the basis of your strategy is. The important thing is to try and build a number of strategies or at least other markets the strategy can work on, that way when the inevitable ups and downs occur, and they do even with something long-lived, then there's reasonable chance multiple income streams will have a smoothing effect.

[Trader724]

It depends on the strategy. Some strategies work as long as the odds are changing and others stop working without any warning.

[Euler]

I've got some strategies that are now twenty years odd and still work.

But strategies can indeed be spoiled or thwarted. While a strategy may work well for a certain period, it's important to understand that markets can be unpredictable and can change over time. Factors such as market conditions, competition, and even unexpected events can impact the effectiveness of a strategy. Therefore, it's crucial to continually monitor, test, and adjust your strategies as necessary.

[Kai]

Can strategies be spoiled or thwarted?

Of course, there are older threads somewhere that I think go into more detail about this topic

But if you managed to build one strategy no reason why you couldn't build more

[napshnap]

Let's say you have a strategy that earns you a healthy profit and does so over a year-long period - nothing crazy but enough to supplement your regular salary.

Can strategies be spoiled or thwarted? Or is it a case of if it works, it works.

Absolutely. Especially when other market players can see where you're betting.

[ShaunWhite]

Worth mentioning that strategies can improve as well as getting worse.

From experience I've got a UK dog strategy that generally breaks even but has random phases during the year (from a few days to a fee weeks) where it earns well.

Markets are complicated, you can't predict what the consequence of the actions of 00s of people coming and going will be.

[Kai]

But strategies can indeed be spoiled or thwarted. While a strategy may work well for a certain period, it's important to understand that markets can be unpredictable and can change over time. Factors such as market conditions, competition, and even unexpected events can impact the effectiveness of a strategy. Therefore, it's crucial to continually monitor, test, and adjust your strategies as necessary.

Why does this part read like ChatGPT

[Crazyskier]

Yes, many do. Or at least the reversion to mean / law of big numbers means that the peaks and troughs often have very prolonged spells that appear as though the strategy has now failed.

Constant monitoring, evolving and changing certain metrics for new trials are what keep me busy.

What I find most frustrating though, is that some strategies seem to lose money whatever way you run them. For example Sunderland on the dogs: I have tried every possible metric from grade, distance, number of runners, backing, laying, dutching, timings of entry and exits, etc etc, and after around a decade of trying, still can NOT sustain any remotely profitable long term strategy.

For others, such as Oxford, and Perry Barr, there are some very profitable and long-running strategies with losing streaks of less than any given calendar month, using the very same strategy for many years.

The key is to use £1 stakes and only increase bets as a percentage of the previous month's profits. This should prevent any more depositing, ever, if done correctly.

CS

[ShaunWhite]

The key is to use £1 stakes and only increase bets as a percentage of the previous month's profits. This should prevent any more depositing, ever, if done correctly.

CS

You'll have problems hedging with £1 stake esp on the lay side. Just imo stake should be about comfort level (vs bank) and/or what the market can take. Previous months can be very variable and losing months make that % profit tricky too.

But as others have said they can fade so make hay while the sun shines.

I'll agree that avoiding depositing is the key, for me that's 5 worst case 'blue moon' scenarios, plus 3 times worst drawdown plus an R&D bank for testing ideas.

[decomez6]

I've got some strategies that are now twenty years odd and still work.

--could this be a candidate ?

find any closely correlated selections and run the servant ! exit at a choice pre -off or let it run and exit in play !

ASC Touch-price Market maker.baf

what would happen if everyone had this running in the back ground. especially in tennis / or any selections closely correlated in implied probability ?

would everyone get a +ev at some point ? OR
the BF XM crashes ?

Suggestion :
the touch price should be included in the next update as permanent SV .Behaves differently to LTP .( more stable and helps in controlling number of triggers)

[Hepburn]

Ive found that some of my strategies can be knocked off course by the weather. However this has opened my eyes to other opportunities. Make it rain!

[Crazyskier]

The key is to use £1 stakes and only increase bets as a percentage of the previous month's profits. This should prevent any more depositing, ever, if done correctly.

CS

You'll have problems hedging with £1 stake esp on the lay side. Just imo stake should be about comfort level (vs bank) and/or what the market can take. Previous months can be very variable and losing months make that % profit tricky too.

But as others have said they can fade so make hay while the sun shines.

I'll agree that avoiding depositing is the key, for me that's 5 worst case 'blue moon' scenarios, plus 3 times worst drawdown plus an R&D bank for testing ideas.

On the dogs most of my strategies are bets rather than trades, in as much as they go to race conclusion, so no issues with hedging.

For example: lay all at 5.9 12 seconds from the off.

CS

[ShaunWhite]

On the dogs most of my strategies are bets rather than trades, in as much as they go to race conclusion, so no issues with hedging.

For example: lay all at 5.9 12 seconds from the off.

CS

You'll save yourself some commission if you hedge them at SP (0ev). And if the sp doesn't turn out to be 0ev then there's another edge.