Hi everyone
In Peters most recent video, he states that you can almost certainly turn a break even betting strategy into a profitable trading strategy. I would like to discuss this in more detail, since I fail to see how placing a "closing" bet will help any betting strategy to turn into a profitable one?
I have a couple of automated in play betting strategies (football) that have a roi of around 2-3% (now getting close to a sample of 1000 matches), but the variance is quite rough at times. Could someone provide a thought example of an in play betting strategy that can be turned (more) profitable by converting it to a trading strategy?
Br. Dsim
Turning a b/e betting-strategy into a profitable trading strategy
Here is a very simple example
You lay something and break even in the long term minus commission.
You lay something and exit at half time, which increases your strike rate and you pay less commission, and rather than profiting from the result you profit from the differential. You now have a free bet which you can reuse in the market for a trade which you can repeat more than once at no risk to your original capital.
This is a very simplistic example.
You lay something and break even in the long term minus commission.
You lay something and exit at half time, which increases your strike rate and you pay less commission, and rather than profiting from the result you profit from the differential. You now have a free bet which you can reuse in the market for a trade which you can repeat more than once at no risk to your original capital.
This is a very simplistic example.
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ShaunWhite
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As a related aside, people need to beware of the Game Show(*) prize money syndrome, just because you haven't seen the folding money yet it doesn't mean it's not yours. The earlier profitable trade is done and banked, any gain now becomes part of a new 'original capital' for your next trade in the same market or the next.
I only mention that because 'playing with profit' can create a less diligent mindset unless you're level headed. Losing an unrealised gain doesn't feel as bad as losing a realised one, but they're both the same.
It's not the exit bet that wins the money, it's the two combined.
Nothing works first time. The OP is about turning a breakeven strategy into a profitable one.
Guess you didn't watch the video to understand the context of it or the comment about turning a break even bet into a profitable trade.
I can understand how it's difficult for a traditional gambler to not be able to see it, but if you trade regularly it should be obvious how. A lot of trading isn't about the outcome of an event.
It started by you patting yourself on the back for predicting that more time would mean more goals.
Bet no one else thought of that.
If it's that simple why don't you show us an example covering a number of games.
But with a slight difference in that you tell us what games you're going to show in advance.
Bet no one else thought of that.
If it's that simple why don't you show us an example covering a number of games.
But with a slight difference in that you tell us what games you're going to show in advance.
It's not possible for a back and lay bet to both be non-profitable. One of them has to win. It's the very basics of trading, getting your back (sell) higher than your lay (purchase).
(Bugger, last's weeks PL will reduce my credibility).
Last edited by Derek27 on Mon Oct 02, 2023 10:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I've come to learn that it doesn't matter how much you try to help people, there will always be people who still wont be satisfied, for whatever reason they have. So I really honestly have stopped caring anymore. I'll just keep producing what I feel is interesting and if you don't like it, then don't watch it.
The video is a simply follow up to the one I did before the season started explaining what impact extra time was likely to have and explaining where it has had the most impact now. Can't see a thing wrong with that.
The video is a simply follow up to the one I did before the season started explaining what impact extra time was likely to have and explaining where it has had the most impact now. Can't see a thing wrong with that.
Footballers can make scoring goals look easy, but not everybody thinks the same thing when watching a video, especially if you're just starting out and you're watching a more experienced guy demonstrate. You just need to remember it's taken years/10,000s of markets to get to that level.
Well it's not "free money" is it, people work for that money by managing their risk, so that's a dangerous assumption to make in the first place.
I get the frustration but it's impossible to please everyone.
It would be helpful if there was a video explaining any strategy
with a list of events that this strategy is going to be used on
and then following up with videos showing all bets placed on those events.
There was a video one week into the us open where he claims
he made a profit by backing every outsider for £100.
Waits for the results and then comes out with a strategy to fit
and obviously there would have been no video if the results had been different.
with a list of events that this strategy is going to be used on
and then following up with videos showing all bets placed on those events.
There was a video one week into the us open where he claims
he made a profit by backing every outsider for £100.
Waits for the results and then comes out with a strategy to fit
and obviously there would have been no video if the results had been different.