Value betting using betfair

[Jblakes]

Good evening,

I'm new to value betting and just trying to learn how to do it before I look at joining rebel betting etc.

From what I gather is if you gets odds higher than the lay side on betfair you are taking value?

Is that is the case, then if you don't beat the sp, then have you taken value?

Or am I totally odd base with it?

Kind regards
James

[TipTopTrader]

Your goal is to beat the starting price. Unless you want to trade. So you back at 5 dollars starts 4 dollars you have a nice value bet. Or if you lay at 4 dollars and starts 5 dollars or above the price you took.

But if you take 5 dollars prices goes down to 4 dollars and returns to 5 dollars at SP or even goes higher , you haven't found a value bet.

You have to also factor in commission, because its on winnings. I'm from Australia so 7% commission 1000 win bet at 5 dollars = 4000 profit x 7% = 280 dollars in commission . So I would have to be beating the SP be at least 7%.

Goodluck with your value betting journey.

[Jblakes]

Thank you for the information.

My million dollar question is how do you beat the sp?.

I am of the understanding when you use software to find value bets, they are value at the moment in time. So like using betfair (which is the method I've been using). These are value bets at that time.

Is that how you do it? Or is it all about beating the sp for a value bet?

Kind regards
James

[sionascaig]

Or is it all about beating the sp for a value bet?

SP is just an indicator. For any given race, you can't really tell if you got value if end position is close to SP as maybe the market just got it wrong, e.g. too much money chasing one particular horse on that race - its only in the round over 1000's of races that will tell you that.

There are several discussion on here re BSP and why some folk don't use that as a measure, e.g maybe LTP (last traded price) before a race starts is better?

But if you are just starting out, trying to find out how to beat BSP maybe a good place to start.

An alternative would be to work out your own prices, add your margins and then try & beat those prices - again you will find chat on here about that approach.

[Jblakes]

Thank for for this I will do some reading and try to find a approach.

My last couple of questions is how do automatic betting system calculate value? Because the prices go up and down till the start of the race, some will go out of a value bet for example.

Also is an arb a good indicator of a value bet or it that just a miss price and nothing to do with value?

Kind regards
James

[Anbell]

Thank for for this I will do some reading and try to find a approach.

My last couple of questions is how do automatic betting system calculate value? Because the prices go up and down till the start of the race, some will go out of a value bet for example.

Also is an arb a good indicator of a value bet or it that just a miss price and nothing to do with value?

Kind regards
James

An arb is independent of value.

It would be very rare for an automated betting system to actually calculate value*. Nearly all of them simply place bets based on instructions in the program. The instructions are usually created by humans.

*for most definitions of these words

[sionascaig]

You can use automated systems to create potential "value" positions, e.g.

1. read in a csv file that sets out a min or max price that willing to accept for a particular selection in a specific market or...
2. use the volatility within a market & / or a partial hedge to create entry positions that are well below (or above) the selections traded range or some other metric or...
3. you could set up trades well outside the money and hope to get hit by some fat fingers / spike (think Dallas posted an example baf for this a while back)...

Agree with Anbell, the system usually doesn't calculate value, but it could attempt to create value positions based on how it operates. Of course it may not be successful )

[allankane]

JBlakes, if I remember correctly rebel betting calculates value by comparison. You set up a configuration saying you want all football bets that look to be 15% (for example) over priced. You select the bookies you want to bet with, one could be betfair.

It then highlights all that's days bets, with your selected bookies, that show value when compared to other bookmakers.

You don't have to calculate a value bet the software does it for you.

Finding value before the off takes years of experience.

[sniffer66]

JBlakes, if I remember correctly rebel betting calculates value by comparison. You set up a configuration saying you want all football bets that look to be 15% (for example) over priced. You select the bookies you want to bet with, one could be betfair.

It then highlights all that's days bets, with your selected bookies, that show value when compared to other bookmakers.

You don't have to calculate a value bet the software does it for you.

Finding value before the off takes years of experience.

I noted Predictology are doing the same for footy on the major bookmakers as well, and it's now automated for BF (though not via BA)

[hecojef928]

Thank you for the information.

My million dollar question is how do you beat the sp?.

I am of the understanding when you use software to find value bets, they are value at the moment in time. So like using betfair (which is the method I've been using). These are value bets at that time.

Is that how you do it? Or is it all about beating the sp for a value bet?

Kind regards
James

I had the same sort of questions really.

@sionascaig and @allankane Does the same still apply to trading?

[sionascaig]

@sionascaig and @allankane Does the same still apply to trading?

I'm not quite sure what you are asking here...

From my point a view a price is either "value" or it isn't. All things being equal, time doesn't come into it.

If you are trading volatility in the market, then you are not too concerned about value. The success of the trade just comes down to did you manage to predict the direction of price movement over whatever time period.

However when you exit a "volatility" trade you can green out entirely or only partially. If partial, then say if you new entry point is well outside the traded range of the selection or expected BSP there is a very good chance you have a "value" position & it may be worth leaving that position open to increase returns.

If you are trading value in the market then you should have an idea of what price(s) represent value & either the selection is in your value range or it isn't. And if you develop value positions you are then more concerned with managing overall market exposure & and how much volatility you are willing to feed through to returns.

Anyhow, there are plenty on here with far more experience than me & may have different takes on it...

[hecojef928]

@sionascaig and @allankane Does the same still apply to trading?

I'm not quite sure what you are asking here...

From my point a view a price is either "value" or it isn't. All things being equal, time doesn't come into it.

If you are trading volatility in the market, then you are not too concerned about value. The success of the trade just comes down to did you manage to predict the direction of price movement over whatever time period.

However when you exit a "volatility" trade you can green out entirely or only partially. If partial, then say if you new entry point is well outside the traded range of the selection or expected BSP there is a very good chance you have a "value" position & it may be worth leaving that position open to increase returns.

If you are trading value in the market then you should have an idea of what price(s) represent value & either the selection is in your value range or it isn't. And if you develop value positions you are then more concerned with managing overall market exposure & and how much volatility you are willing to feed through to returns.

Anyhow, there are plenty on here with far more experience than me & may have different takes on it...

Thanks!

Right now, I'm figuring out the ropes of scalping—jumping in and out of positions to catch those small market moves. But here's what's on my mind: Is what I'm doing aligned with this whole value thing? How do you know if you're trading at value, and does it actually make a difference? So, in the quick world of scalping or trading volatility, does value truly matter?

I've got a hunch that trading at value helps you predict the chances of the market moving in that direction. But here's the catch: If you're not strictly sticking to the value path and just following charts or market sentiment, can you still make steady profits in the long run even?

If you had a growing equity curve with a scalping strategy, am I trading at value or not? It's quite confusing for someone who is new and I am still getting my head around it.

"If you are trading volatility in the market, then you are not too concerned about value. The success of the trade just comes down to did you manage to predict the direction of price movement over whatever time period."

Yes, that's what I'm thinking myself, but you seem to see "value" everywhere, so it's confusing me.

[Kai]

How do you know if you're trading at value, and does it actually make a difference? So, in the quick world of scalping or trading volatility, does value truly matter?

Well what does your P&L say?

It can answer all these questions and much more

[hecojef928]

How do you know if you're trading at value, and does it actually make a difference? So, in the quick world of scalping or trading volatility, does value truly matter?

Well what does your P&L say?

It can answer all these questions and much more

I'm stuck in this loop of thoughts. If my equity curve is going up, am I really trading at value? And if it's heading down, does that mean I've been missing the mark on trading at value? How do you know for certain?

[sionascaig]

Maybe its just terminology & "value" means different things to different people depending on context...

If you are able to make a profit from the volatility within the market I really wouldn't be too concerned with whether you were trading at "value" positions.. The main point is that you have extracted "value" from the market due to volatility...If trading volatility the main concerns are entry & exit points, e.g. did I have a good entry point & when / how should I get out.

Good luck with you scalping journey, it's a lot harder than some folk make it look!