Who here is profitable?

[sIGNAL]

tbh -you've answered your dilemma yourself. one begets the other. by analysing data, you will discover these type of setups and more importantly, will be able to track what becomes of the money sitting above/below.. i.e. does it get matched or pulled. from that you'll discover that you may want to go in the opposite direction to what you are seeing as in this case, it'd be spoof money that is set as a trap waiting for someone to take a fill from it.

this and more thro data analysis. you can setup a ruleset in BA that writes the tick data (as it's streamed) to a file. you can then use this in something as simple as Excel to review and look for outliers/patterns etc.

Thank you. I think it is time I start tracking everything rather than shooting blindly. I think I just needed to exhaust the path of least resistance to begin with before setting aside time to properly study what I am doing. I think I also needed some reassurance I'm not about to commit thousands of hours studying useless things. I feel I am good at considering the ''they know that I know type strategies'', so should be good at working out whats going on with the data I analyse

when i was a BA dabbler, i made a few rules that i uploaded here. this one below will capture the streamed data from any event into a csv file (PRE race and IP). i know it's an elderly thread now, but should still work: viewtopic.php?p=232149#p232149

Thanks for that Jimibt, I will have a play with that this week.

Going back to OP, just to give my view as a new trader, I'm about 7 months in and still breaking even. Still playing with my original £300 bank which stands today at £301. Been up and down, but I've learnt tonnes about the markets and have literally gone through every strategy eliminating things quickly.
I literally now just do horse IR and Greyhounds pre off automated. last week i just got my VPS up and running which is purely for football trading 24/7 fully automated.

I don't work anymore due to illness, but I don't need the money, but I do this not for any profit but just to try and solve the puzzle of making constant profits. I like the challenge and it keeps me focused on something to do each day.

I think what Kai mentioned above is spot on about finding your own niche. I'm starting to realise this now and am starting to come up with various ideas off the beaten track.

This is most definitely one of the biggest challenges I've undertook in my life and I'm only 7 months in but won't give in until I crack it.

[Fugazi]

You actually are profitable. 5% to be precise (you're breaking even, but Betfair is taking comission)

So I think you have a lot to be pleased about there

[jamesedwards]

You actually are profitable. 5% to be precise (you're breaking even, but Betfair is taking comission)

So I think you have a lot to be pleased about there

I imagine most profitable traders are on the 2% commission structure. Is there a reason you're better off still paying 5%?

[sIGNAL]

You actually are profitable. 5% to be precise (you're breaking even, but Betfair is taking comission)

So I think you have a lot to be pleased about there

Suppose I am when you put it like that. But ive never really taken commission into account at this stage as still seems I'm treading water. (I'm on 2% rate)

I am pleased I haven't blown a bank or even been close to it. so yeah I must be doing something right most of the time. I just need to tip that in my favour abit more.

[Fugazi]

You actually are profitable. 5% to be precise (you're breaking even, but Betfair is taking comission)

So I think you have a lot to be pleased about there

I imagine most profitable traders are on the 2% commission structure. Is there a reason you're better off still paying 5%?

Ah.

Quite honestly haven't bothered to check the structures. Thought it was 5 percent, best I go check Im on 2%

Edit: just checked. I remember now I already changed it to 2% when matched betting. I forgot you get to choose which structure you are on.

[wearthefoxhat]

One area that's been consistent for me, is the Lay to Back trade of runners that my ratings indicate have a poor chance in current race conditions and there is adequate competition in the race.

It's essentially a value based trading method. eg: Today: D'art D'art 1.10 Down Royal, went off @ 5/4f, I had it rated no better than a 5/2 chance on my tissue. Could have been a straight lay, but experience has taught me to take a fair profit. (also to take a fair loss if not going the way predicted).

The BA in-play trader is a very good resource to support this approach.

I've also considered starting up a Maria Lay thread and aim to turn £300 into £10,000 (not enough liquidity to do £3000 into £100,000). The thing is, I wouldn't want to post up selections pre-off the way she did as it may be possible to reverse engineer the approach, and if going well, everyone else piling in before my bot entered the market.

[Fugazi]

One area that's been consistent for me, is the Lay to Back trade of runners that my ratings indicate have a poor chance in current race conditions and there is adequate competition in the race.

It's essentially a value based trading method. eg: Today: D'art D'art 1.10 Down Royal, went off @ 5/4f, I had it rated no better than a 5/2 chance on my tissue. Could have been a straight lay, but experience has taught me to take a fair profit. (also to take a fair loss if not going the way predicted).

The BA in-play trader is a very good resource to support this approach.

I've also considered starting up a Maria Lay thread and aim to turn £300 into £10,000 (not enough liquidity to do £3000 into £100,000). The thing is, I wouldn't want to post up selections pre-off the way she did as it may be possible to reverse engineer the approach, and if going well, everyone else piling in before my bot entered the market.

Makes no sense to me why you wouldn't just straight lay and forget.

If a 5/4f is a 5/2 true odds, just lay the lot at 5/4. If you're saying that isn't profitable long tern, then you're simply going to lose money in the end however you go about it

[conduirez]

One area that's been consistent for me, is the Lay to Back trade of runners that my ratings indicate have a poor chance in current race conditions and there is adequate competition in the race.

It's essentially a value based trading method. eg: Today: D'art D'art 1.10 Down Royal, went off @ 5/4f, I had it rated no better than a 5/2 chance on my tissue. Could have been a straight lay, but experience has taught me to take a fair profit. (also to take a fair loss if not going the way predicted).

The BA in-play trader is a very good resource to support this approach.

I've also considered starting up a Maria Lay thread and aim to turn £300 into £10,000 (not enough liquidity to do £3000 into £100,000). The thing is, I wouldn't want to post up selections pre-off the way she did as it may be possible to reverse engineer the approach, and if going well, everyone else piling in before my bot entered the market.

Makes no sense to me why you wouldn't just straight lay and forget.

If a 5/4f is a 5/2 true odds, just lay the lot at 5/4. If you're saying that isn't profitable long tern, then you're simply going to lose money in the end however you go about it

That in crude terms would be taking a punt, if you take punts unless you have solid data or information, your bank might soon disappear.

Trading wearthefoxhat will not lose in the end, unless the system used for working out the prices is floored.

[Kai]

Do you HAVE to be analysing data

No, you just HAVE to know what makes your market tick.

It's your personal preference how you want to accomplish that, whether you're a quant or a trader or a value bettor or anything in between.

Let's try and use pure simple logic here, if you know your market well enough then you should know where the opportunities are, right? If you know where the opportunities are then you can start working on how best to exploit them, surely? So if you manage to do that haven't you then built yourself a working edge? And if you did that once on a market and now know what it takes then what's stopping you from doing the same on another market???

It doesn't have to be complex, in fact simplicity is one of the most efficient ways of exploiting opportunities. And to simplify your trading it helps to understand the complexities of the market. Even if that last sentence makes no damn sense whatsoever.

If I had nothing better to do I think I would rather watch the market unfold positionless and keep my eyes peeled for opportunities that I could build an edge around than watch the data afterwards.

But that's just me, playing to my strengths, you do you and play to yours. I specialize in reading order flow and I try to find and/or create value. I want to know what the market is thinking and what the money is doing, what the biggest chunks of money are up to. If there is a bias I want to see and feel it right then and there, not afterwards in the data. If I know how my markets usually behave and trade then I know that anything out of the ordinary could be an opportunity, which all boils down once again to knowing your market. When (not if) the market starts changing its behaviour I want to notice this right away and not later on the P&L, or find out about it from a forum post 7 months later, or from a video pack 4 years later.

So obviously a trading skillset is not a set of instructions like in matched betting, there is no copying here. Which brings me to the original point, that you build this skillset through a growth mindset, and if you don't have one you build this mindset first. They tried to teach this concept to me in school and college but I ironically paid no attention to it!

[wearthefoxhat]

Makes no sense to me why you wouldn't just straight lay and forget.

If a 5/4f is a 5/2 true odds, just lay the lot at 5/4. If you're saying that isn't profitable long tern, then you're simply going to lose money in the end however you go about it

That's why the Maria Lay approach and staking plan appealed to many, me included. However, looking after and growing the bank should be the main aim. If my ratings, then converted to a tissue price, indicated a 20/1 shot is really a 200/1 shot and then straight layed it, and got it wrong, that would be painful and would put me outside my comfort zone.

I find there are sometimes more than one qualifer in a race, so L2B all them if "initially value" on the tissue price, is preferred. There are two L2B trades, one pre-off and one In-Play using the In-Play trader.

That in crude terms would be taking a punt, if you take punts unless you have solid data or information, your bank might soon disappear.

Trading wearthefoxhat will not lose in the end, unless the system used for working out the prices is floored.

The system for working out the prices, converted to a tissue price, is the edge on known information and data testing, but...the unknown information pre-race, that is only reflected in the odds nearer the off time, must somehow be accounted for.

My position pre-race is based on my view that overbet runners have much less chance of winning based on data and the competition in the race, than the market is suggesting. If the market and trend goes against me, then I have to accept it and trade out at a loss and protect the bank.

[wearthefoxhat]

They tried to teach this concept to me in school and college but I ironically paid no attention to it!

The brain matures mid to late 20's, science suggests it rewires up to the age of 25, that might explain why we prefer to use elastic bands with paper clips as catapults at school....or was that just me....

Nice graphic, should be page 1 on anyones' life journey list.

[Derek27]

...that might explain why we prefer to use elastic bands with paper clips as catapults at school....or was that just me....

Certainly wasn't just you, I'd fire them around the classroom ... and waterbombs dropped from a second-floor window at lunchtime.

[wearthefoxhat]

...that might explain why we prefer to use elastic bands with paper clips as catapults at school....or was that just me....

Certainly wasn't just you, I'd fire them around the classroom ... and waterbombs dropped from a second-floor window at lunchtime.

Yes...that's it...."Oh what fun we had"

Baggy.png

[Anbell]

If my ratings, then converted to a tissue price, indicated a 20/1 shot is really a 200/1 shot and then straight layed it, and got it wrong, that would be painful and would put me outside my comfort zone.

You can just lower your stakes?

[wearthefoxhat]

If my ratings, then converted to a tissue price, indicated a 20/1 shot is really a 200/1 shot and then straight layed it, and got it wrong, that would be painful and would put me outside my comfort zone.

You can just lower your stakes?

With that example for sure.

If it were the maria lay staking plan, then the stakes would re-adjust, but not qualify as it's would be over 11.00.