UK General Election 2024 (or 25) - Trading ONLY thread

[sionascaig]

Some mad odds available. Time for me to dip into some of these I think with the election only 6 months away...

No overall majority 11.0
Conservative losses 101-150 11.5
Oct-Dec 1.22 (surely this is nailed on?)

The market for month of Sunaks disposal caught my eye although not a lot of money in it yet.

Screenshot 2024-04-09 125417.png

[greenmark]

Dumping Sunak before an election would be a damage limitating action. He's toast and so are the Tories so why not take the pain now and start a rebuild early?

[Derek27]

Has anyone on here backed a Labour majority when it was a decent price?

[henbet22]

Capture.PNG

Most seats not majority though. Not sure why it was 230. Some bizarre mental accounting probably.

[jamesedwards]

This thread will follow a strict rule that if any arguments or insults break out we will just delete them. The moderators will enforce this rigoursly to ensure we can debate and discuss key aspects of these markets without falling into the dinner party trap.

[Derek27]

Dan Poultry defects from Tory to Labour, over NHS policy.

[greenmark]

I don't understand Scottish politics at the moment. SNP was unbeatable, then needed the Greens to maintain a majority.
Looks awful from down here in England. But at least the Scots haven't elected a Johnson or Truss.
I'd be surprised if Yousaf survives this though.

[Derek27]

Sunak not ruling out a July election (6.8/8.0). Nothing's going right for him at the moment and it doesn't look as if it will get any better the longer he leaves it.

[Derek27]

Sunak unable to explain to Trevor Phillips exactly what he means by "stop the boats".

[greenmark]

Got to be an October election now. Labour voters are reticent when the weather is crap. Sunak's best chance. ie a snowball's (I may live to regret that comment).

[Derek27]

Got to be an October election now. Labour voters are reticent when the weather is crap. Sunak's best chance. ie a snowball's (I may live to regret that comment).

Labour voters work in the cold, Tory voters work in air-conditioned offices. They won't come out to vote in the cold.

[sionascaig]

Quite a few new markets popped up since last time I looked...

Screenshot 2024-05-01 093617.png

Looks like you can still get £50 on Humza not being leader of SNP at next GE !

[Derek27]

Natalie Elphicke has crossed the floor during PMQ, completely out of the blue!

[LeTiss]

Natalie Elphicke has crossed the floor during PMQ, completely out of the blue!

MP for Dover. She's angry that Sunak has lied over his determination to 'Stop the Boats'
She's right that we need to be stronger with border patrols

[Derek27]

Natalie Elphicke has crossed the floor during PMQ, completely out of the blue!

MP for Dover. She's angry that Sunak has lied over his determination to 'Stop the Boats'
She's right that we need to be stronger with border patrols

I don't think Sunak lied about his determination to stop the boats, he's absolutely determined, he's just deluded into thinking that "stopping the boats", i.e. bringing the numbers down to zero, is achievable.

What's bizarre is that Elphicke is towards the right of the Tory party, and now she's joined Labour!

I'm not even sure what happens to these defectors come election time, when the Labour party will already have genuine candidates to run for the seat.