A strategy I found

[beginnertrader]

When I started this journey I had 2 goals in mind:

• it must be built for automation.

• it must be built for scale.

Go big or go home.

As an experienced developer i've build a backend and reporting system that allows me to track everything from bankroll management, through realtime analysis.

I started my journey with prediction football scores, and then I realized that on an exchange, it is better to focus on human behavior and look for the movements of odds.

I applied a lay to back methodology on greyhound racing trying to catch odds raising movement of x% profit, and hope for the best if I didn't find the right match.
It surprisingly worked pretty well, and i'm running this for 8 days now, and I used some deep analysis to build strategies (for example, determine the minimum odd I will get in to a bet).

So few thoughts:

• How can I know that I found an edge? How many bets with a nice edge graph will prove the point and will make me feel more comfortable to increase stake value?

• the importance of bankroll management: the real cost of fees when you are running a long term strategy that both wins and loses (but better on the win size) - is just not spoken enough! You can have a "profitable" strategy with negative net. profit! That's crazy and counterintuitive, but crucial for success management!

[Crazyskier]

hope for the best if I didn't find the right match.

That right there would be gambling and not really a 'strategy'. You're confusing apples and pears. Perhaps try taking SP on all bets to green / red up and then look again.

CS

[jamesedwards]

You really need thousands, perhaps 10s of thousands of results to be confident of an edge.

Don't underestimate the impact of stake on profitability, especially on greyhounds. Increase stakes very slowly and monitor closely.

[Fugazi]

You really need thousands, perhaps 10s of thousands of results to be confident of an edge.

Don't underestimate the impact of stake on profitability, especially on greyhounds. Increase stakes very slowly and monitor closely.

See attached.

A very profitable system, 2000 bets.

Out of a group of 100, one bloke loses 115 points. Thats a whole bankroll.

[wearthefoxhat]

When I started this journey I had 2 goals in mind:

• it must be built for automation.

• it must be built for scale.

Go big or go home.

As an experienced developer i've build a backend and reporting system that allows me to track everything from bankroll management, through realtime analysis.

I started my journey with prediction football scores, and then I realized that on an exchange, it is better to focus on human behavior and look for the movements of odds.

I applied a lay to back methodology on greyhound racing trying to catch odds raising movement of x% profit, and hope for the best if I didn't find the right match.
It surprisingly worked pretty well, and i'm running this for 8 days now, and I used some deep analysis to build strategies (for example, determine the minimum odd I will get in to a bet).

So few thoughts:

• How can I know that I found an edge? How many bets with a nice edge graph will prove the point and will make me feel more comfortable to increase stake value?

• the importance of bankroll management: the real cost of fees when you are running a long term strategy that both wins and loses (but better on the win size) - is just not spoken enough! You can have a "profitable" strategy with negative net. profit! That's crazy and counterintuitive, but crucial for success management!

Good post.

Reckon there's still mileage in predicting football scores, especially ones that help identify team match ups that forecast high or low scoring games. There's still plenty of liquidity around to help yourself to.

When I got into this pastime, full automation was my goal too. I found, for me, semi-automation works best. ie: get a bot to enter a position when the set up is right, and then manually manage the exit. This is on football/horse racing and tennis.

Greyhounds I find a little tougher. Had some initial success, then my bot lost ground as others became smarter. Put it down to liquidity dropping at the more favourable/profitable tracks.

[beginnertrader]

hope for the best if I didn't find the right match.

That right there would be gambling and not really a 'strategy'. You're confusing apples and pears. Perhaps try taking SP on all bets to green / red up and then look again.

CS

I see your point but disagree. As i'm working toward big scale, I determine in which condition do I get in, and in which I get out.
At the beginning I added what I call "stop loss" with a percentage of loss i'm willing to tolerate and then my bot would have exit the trade.
I found that not putting a direct stop loss, but let the bet remain, sometime loss 100% of my exposure and sometime win the back stake - creates a similar stop loss mechanism from a different point of of view. At the end this is all mathematic metrics orient, and the balance between the KPIs is what we are looking for.

[beginnertrader]

When I started this journey I had 2 goals in mind:

• it must be built for automation.

• it must be built for scale.

Go big or go home.

As an experienced developer i've build a backend and reporting system that allows me to track everything from bankroll management, through realtime analysis.

I started my journey with prediction football scores, and then I realized that on an exchange, it is better to focus on human behavior and look for the movements of odds.

I applied a lay to back methodology on greyhound racing trying to catch odds raising movement of x% profit, and hope for the best if I didn't find the right match.
It surprisingly worked pretty well, and i'm running this for 8 days now, and I used some deep analysis to build strategies (for example, determine the minimum odd I will get in to a bet).

So few thoughts:

• How can I know that I found an edge? How many bets with a nice edge graph will prove the point and will make me feel more comfortable to increase stake value?

• the importance of bankroll management: the real cost of fees when you are running a long term strategy that both wins and loses (but better on the win size) - is just not spoken enough! You can have a "profitable" strategy with negative net. profit! That's crazy and counterintuitive, but crucial for success management!

Good post.

Reckon there's still mileage in predicting football scores, especially ones that help identify team match ups that forecast high or low scoring games. There's still plenty of liquidity around to help yourself to.

When I got into this pastime, full automation was my goal too. I found, for me, semi-automation works best. ie: get a bot to enter a position when the set up is right, and then manually manage the exit. This is on football/horse racing and tennis.

Greyhounds I find a little tougher. Had some initial success, then my bot lost ground as others became smarter. Put it down to liquidity dropping at the more favourable/profitable tracks.

I defiantly found some sort of edge, I just didn't understand the bits and bytes of it yet. still working on cracking this.

[Anbell]

When I started this journey I had 2 goals in mind:

• it must be built for automation.

• it must be built for scale.

Go big or go home.

As an experienced developer i've build a backend and reporting system that allows me to track everything from bankroll management, through realtime analysis.

I started my journey with prediction football scores, and then I realized that on an exchange, it is better to focus on human behavior and look for the movements of odds.

I applied a lay to back methodology on greyhound racing trying to catch odds raising movement of x% profit, and hope for the best if I didn't find the right match.
It surprisingly worked pretty well, and i'm running this for 8 days now, and I used some deep analysis to build strategies (for example, determine the minimum odd I will get in to a bet).

So few thoughts:

• How can I know that I found an edge? How many bets with a nice edge graph will prove the point and will make me feel more comfortable to increase stake value?

• the importance of bankroll management: the real cost of fees when you are running a long term strategy that both wins and loses (but better on the win size) - is just not spoken enough! You can have a "profitable" strategy with negative net. profit! That's crazy and counterintuitive, but crucial for success management!

Good post. You need to be thinking in terms of these numbers: https://winnerodds.com/valuebettingblog ... s-betting/

[sniffer66]

When I started this journey I had 2 goals in mind:

• it must be built for automation.

• it must be built for scale.

Go big or go home.

As an experienced developer i've build a backend and reporting system that allows me to track everything from bankroll management, through realtime analysis.

I started my journey with prediction football scores, and then I realized that on an exchange, it is better to focus on human behavior and look for the movements of odds.

I applied a lay to back methodology on greyhound racing trying to catch odds raising movement of x% profit, and hope for the best if I didn't find the right match.
It surprisingly worked pretty well, and i'm running this for 8 days now, and I used some deep analysis to build strategies (for example, determine the minimum odd I will get in to a bet).

So few thoughts:

• How can I know that I found an edge? How many bets with a nice edge graph will prove the point and will make me feel more comfortable to increase stake value?

• the importance of bankroll management: the real cost of fees when you are running a long term strategy that both wins and loses (but better on the win size) - is just not spoken enough! You can have a "profitable" strategy with negative net. profit! That's crazy and counterintuitive, but crucial for success management!

Good post. You need to be thinking in terms of these numbers: https://winnerodds.com/valuebettingblog ... s-betting/

I highly recommend The Staking Machine for analysing value betting. The data you can pull out, given a csv of all your results (real or sim) is invaluable

https://www.thestakingmachine.com/

Capture.JPG

[Hepburn]

If you trade greyhounds manually you will find what works. Then automate that.

[CK2021]

When I started this journey I had 2 goals in mind:

• it must be built for scale.

Go big or go home.


I applied a lay to back methodology on greyhound racing

Good luck scaling up with greyhounds.

[Fugazi]

When I started this journey I had 2 goals in mind:

• it must be built for scale.

Go big or go home.


I applied a lay to back methodology on greyhound racing

Good luck scaling up with greyhounds.

I imagine there are people easily making £300+ a day on greyhounds. I would say thats sufficient scalability ?

[jamesedwards]

When I started this journey I had 2 goals in mind:

• it must be built for scale.

Go big or go home.


I applied a lay to back methodology on greyhound racing

Good luck scaling up with greyhounds.

I imagine there are people easily making £300+ a day on greyhounds. I would say thats sufficient scalability ?

I doubt there are many, if any, who will consistently take out that sort of money. As soon as you try to scale greyhound trading above minimum bets you get picked off and profitability takes a nosedive.

[Fugazi]

Good luck scaling up with greyhounds.

I imagine there are people easily making £300+ a day on greyhounds. I would say thats sufficient scalability ?

I doubt there are many, if any, who will consistently take out that sort of money. As soon as you try to scale greyhound trading above minimum bets you get picked off and profitability takes a nosedive.

Yeah to be fair probably those with some hard to obtain info such as the condition of traps, hare controller etc that can really make that kinda cash.

Maybe capped at around 200 a day for the best of those trading solely online based on info freely obtainable online

[Kai]

When I started this journey I had 2 goals in mind:

• it must be built for scale.

Go big or go home.


I applied a lay to back methodology on greyhound racing

Good luck scaling up with greyhounds.

I imagine there are people easily making £300+ a day on greyhounds. I would say thats sufficient scalability ?

Not sure you could even do it manually anymore, would probably have to focus on the evening stuff more