I've been interested in winners matching at 1000 and today I watched the 15:53 at Philadelphia where number 2, Heleonortiz, won having matched 1000 in the race.
I know there's lots of different factors going into it. It started as an outsider and towards the end battled with one of the favourites, but it led the whole way so I'm scratching my head how its odds could have been so high.
Can anyone help?
You can view the replay here: https://www.parxracing.com/parxracingreplays.php, (Click 26th March, then Race 8). Result is here: https://www.skysports.com/racing/raceca ... 5/claiming
Winning 1000 horse but led the whole way
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 2324
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
What a plucky run from the winner! I hope she got to enjoy a few carrots on the back of that.
In US races the in-running liquidity is very low and there is often very big variances between back and lay prices available. eg I would expect an outsider like this, leading but looking like it's going to get swamped as it turns into the stretch, to be available at around 10 to back and 1000 to lay for just pennies. So if you think it's not gonna win then you need to click first to get anything matched, and I could see someone clicking on this. Very poor value of course, but people make bad decisions in the race to click first.
In US races the in-running liquidity is very low and there is often very big variances between back and lay prices available. eg I would expect an outsider like this, leading but looking like it's going to get swamped as it turns into the stretch, to be available at around 10 to back and 1000 to lay for just pennies. So if you think it's not gonna win then you need to click first to get anything matched, and I could see someone clicking on this. Very poor value of course, but people make bad decisions in the race to click first.
I never play horses in play so am pretty ignorant on the subject with the betting and data angle. In the US do they have something like the TPD you guys use over here, or would someone like in this case, just make a decision to lay that horse at a 1000 on what they are seeing.jamesedwards wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:07 amWhat a plucky run from the winner! I hope she got to enjoy a few carrots on the back of that.
In US races the in-running liquidity is very low and there is often very big variances between back and lay prices available. eg I would expect an outsider like this, leading but looking like it's going to get swamped as it turns into the stretch, to be available at around 10 to back and 1000 to lay for just pennies. So if you think it's not gonna win then you need to click first to get anything matched, and I could see someone clicking on this. Very poor value of course, but people make bad decisions in the race to click first.
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 2324
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
No TPD at Parx so it was a manual trigger.
The horse was a big outsider and looked like it was going to be swamped turning in. Not ever a 1/1000 chance of course, but often on US there's just a few pence available to lay at any price and the first one to hit it takes the lot.
Or could have been a mistake of course, someone laying the wrong horse or for the wrong price.
The horse was a big outsider and looked like it was going to be swamped turning in. Not ever a 1/1000 chance of course, but often on US there's just a few pence available to lay at any price and the first one to hit it takes the lot.
Or could have been a mistake of course, someone laying the wrong horse or for the wrong price.
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whistlerscot
- Posts: 2
- Joined: Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:26 am
Thanks both, so a combination of low liquidity and perhaps a mistake. Makes sense 