Punting vs Trading

[shubb]

Hello All,

First post here.

My problem is that I have hard time closing the trades when there is value. Usually, the market is skewed to the other direction so is if I close the trade it's going to be more EV- than just letting it run and pay 2% commission. Depending on odds.

Do you guys just let the bets run in that kind of scenarios?

[Anbell]

Hello All,

First post here.

My problem is that I have hard time closing the trades when there is value. Usually, the market is skewed to the other direction so is if I close the trade it's going to be more EV- than just letting it run and pay 2% commission. Depending on odds.

Do you guys just let the bets run in that kind of scenarios?

It depends. How confident are you that there is value? How comfortable are you with variance? What about over 1000 trades?

[Alpha322]

Each to their own really. BA when i discovered back in 2009 was a miracle, i had stopped punting 8 years prior to that when racing was racing and trainer yards were real trainer yards,
especially when you had people like Barney Curley around (who was a punter unionist against the bookmakers) and John Mc Cririck (RIP) Creating all the rage and excitement on C4 racing on the morning line (With Barry Dennis) and on course. Henry Cecil, Micheal Stoute, Barry Hills, Jeremy Tree, D Weld in Ireland Mullings and A Obrien was a learner then but came through. They all had their time on the course or their week. I use to come out of the bookies with large Checks, imagine if BA was around then and we all know inplay running like some of us do my word you could of left Guardian to close out at 1.01 with confidence.

Now i say Trading proper open close the market on the horse you trade, am not about value, am about where opinion and order flow is and clinching a profit.

Do 1000 trades at £10 at 60/40 win ratio
Am one these days who is not interested in the horses finish position, just tat the profit is there before the leave that gate. The most i do i would say if i spot a weak Value favourite i would trade it and lay it back in the market at 2/1 usually loses and i pick up on the rest. So punting is a no no for me i stopped entering the shops of bookmakers ages ago thank god for sports trading

[shubb]

[

It depends. How confident are you that there is value? How comfortable are you with variance? What about over 1000 trades?

Tens of thousands of trades so should be confident enough.
The closing trades are losing more than commission on average in some specific strategies even the book is close to 100%.

[shubb]

[
It depends. How confident are you that there is value? How comfortable are you with variance? What about over 1000 trades?

Variance doesn't matter much as long as it's maximizing value.

[Anbell]

[

It depends. How confident are you that there is value? How comfortable are you with variance? What about over 1000 trades?

Tens of thousands of trades so should be confident enough.
The closing trades are losing more than commission on average in some specific strategies even the book is close to 100%.

That's probably your answer then!

[Anbell]

[
It depends. How confident are you that there is value? How comfortable are you with variance? What about over 1000 trades?

Variance doesn't matter much as long as it's maximizing value.

That's not literally always true. Sometimes variance matters.

[shubb]

[
It depends. How confident are you that there is value? How comfortable are you with variance? What about over 1000 trades?

Variance doesn't matter much as long as it's maximizing value.

That's not literally always true. Sometimes variance matters.

Well, there is a bankroll but if there's tons of value, then the possible drawdowns are not going to shock too much. I might "overbet" once in while.

Anyway, thank you for your answer. I'm just thinking people might be closing trades too much in certain cases and losing value by that.

[Anbell]

Anyway, thank you for your answer. I'm just thinking people might be closing trades too much in certain cases and losing value by that.

That's certainly possible but a) how would you know b) how would they know c) trading is different to betting and sometimes, for some people, they should be kept separate most of the time.

To put it another way: trading is mostly a bet that the price will change in my favour before the start (or end) of an event. The math and the mindset and the logic is different for each, and blending them usually doesnt end well.

If people are losing value on average by closing trades, and you can capture value by doing it differently, then great for you.

[shubb]

Anyway, thank you for your answer. I'm just thinking people might be closing trades too much in certain cases and losing value by that.

That's certainly possible but a) how would you know b) how would they know c) trading is different to betting and sometimes, for some people, they should be kept separate most of the time.

To put it another way: trading is mostly a bet that the price will change in my favour before the start (or end) of an event. The math and the mindset and the logic is different for each, and blending them usually doesnt end well.

If people are losing value on average by closing trades, and you can capture value by doing it differently, then great for you.

I have tried to close trades at different times by putting my order to the queue and it just ends up showing more minus than the commission would be but together with the opening trades it shows profit.

So it seems like the whole market is constantly shifted a couple of ticks.

[jamesedwards]

As long as you have no limitations around bank management then to maximise long-term profit you should treat every transaction separately and on their own +/-EV merits. Otherwise you're going to give away value by greening up at -EV.

[shubb]

As long as you have no limitations around bank management then to maximise long-term profit you should treat every transaction separately and on their own +/-EV merits. Otherwise you're going to give away value by greening up at -EV.

Thank you for your answer. Most of the trading content videos end up greening without thinking about it too much. I understand that people want to avoid variance but there could be a cost for it.

Especially, when you're trying to avoid the premium charge at the same time so I'm trying to optimize that too by letting the trades run.

[jamesedwards]

As long as you have no limitations around bank management then to maximise long-term profit you should treat every transaction separately and on their own +/-EV merits. Otherwise you're going to give away value by greening up at -EV.

Most of the trading content videos end up greening without thinking about it too much.

I understand that people want to avoid variance but there could be a cost for it.

Especially, when you're trying to avoid the premium charge at the same time so I'm trying to optimize that too by letting the trades run.

These three points are all spot on IMO.