QE3?

Long, short, Bitcoin, forex - Plenty of alternate market disuccsion.
Post Reply
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

mulberryhawk wrote:
superfrank wrote: nope, it's due to currency debauchment via QE.
would that be the currency debauchment that has seen sterling gain nearly 10% on the euro in the last six months ?
not even Merv could keep the £ falling against the €!

checkout the £ against the Yen, Singapore dollar, Aussie dollar etc.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=G ... =;range=5y

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=G ... =;range=5y

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=G ... =;range=5y

for a country with a dreadful trade balance that equals inflation.
mulberryhawk
Posts: 165
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:37 am

Frank you have been extolling the virtues of the german driven austerity in Europe, and yet it is the euro that is being "debauched" due to the ECB`s unwillingness to ease.

I dont see hyperinflation or debauched currencies in the US, UK or Japan . All have used QE as a tool to support aggregrate demand which supports the economy.

We arent discussing or debating Australian or Singaporean fiscal or monetary policy here. We are discussing European austerity policies here and your claims dont bear up under scrutiny.

The Dollar, Yen and Pound are all up between 6-8% in the last 6 months. I am merely trying to figure out where the hyperinflation and debauchery that you and jeff have been warning us all about is?
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

the Euro started to fall after the ECB starting printing (LTRO). the ECB have eased. what they're not prepared to do is be even more reckless (which is what you, the US and UK are asking for).

printing = debauchment

youre aggregate demand stuff sounds impressive but it's just more time buying nonsense - easy to increase demand by diluting the currency but it solves nothing.
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

More Bank of England members support extra stimulus
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18517470
"On balance, most members judged that some further economic stimulus was either warranted immediately or would probably become warranted in order to meet the inflation target," the minutes said.
what a joke.
mulberryhawk
Posts: 165
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:37 am

[quote="superfrank"]the Euro started to fall after the ECB starting printing (LTRO). the ECB have eased. what they're not prepared to do is be even more reckless (which is what you, the US and UK are asking for).

printing = debauchment

The Euro was trading at .90 to sterling last july, it had dropped to .83 by 21st of december when the ltro was announced. It is trading at around the .81 handle as we speak.

Once again the facts dont support claims that QE will lead to either hyperinflation or a debauched currency.
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

mulberryhawk wrote:The Euro was trading at .90 to sterling last july, it had dropped to .83 by 21st of december when the ltro was announced. It is trading at around the .81 handle as we speak.
that because the banks knew it was coming* and got short the Euro big time.

and so did i - i read it on zerohedge :D
mulberryhawk
Posts: 165
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:37 am

classic comeback, i cant argue with that frank :lol:
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Helicopter Ben is up to his old tricks again! From the Telegraph:

The US Fed has twisted again: its monetary stimulus plan, "Operation Twist" will be extended by $267bn in a bid to boost the economy as the central bank still sees weakness.

Jeff
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

'In the last six weeks... I am very struck by how much has changed since we produced our May Inflation Report. I am pessimistic [about the eurozone outlook]. I am particularly concerned because over two years now we have seen the situation in the euro area get worse and the problem being pushed down the road.'

Mervyn King today
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

Ferru123 wrote:Helicopter Ben is up to his old tricks again! From the Telegraph:

The US Fed has twisted again: its monetary stimulus plan, "Operation Twist" will be extended by $267bn in a bid to boost the economy as the central bank still sees weakness.

Jeff
they'll be seeing weakness, and printing, for the next 20 years*

* or until it all goes t1ts up.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Merv heats up the presses again: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... -50bn.html

The article says that he 'injected a further £50bn into the economy'. That works out at just over £800 per person living in the UK. But I wonder how many people outside of the Square Mile will be even £1 better off as a result of this decision. If Merv is going to kick the can down the road, at least he should do so in style, and use the money to actually stimulate the economy, by having it fund a tax cut...

Jeff
User avatar
jimrobo
Posts: 1289
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:49 pm

Pretty much combined stimulus announced from around the world at once today.

The uk announcement was one of the smaller ones!!! The public bank of china started it at the same time as the uk announcement, then an hour later the ecb joined the party with their own stimulus.

It has been a strange week in the markets....almost like a ghost town. Markets have been pricing in this stimulus all week with 3 days of heavy buying and light volume then today was like lighting a match on the markets......huge volume from everywhere!!
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

Newsnight's take on Merv's speech today is that an interest rate cut to zero is on its way and that we can expect more QE and also that he "failed to deny that Britain would monetise its debts".

the strategy is failing and their response is to make the strategy more extreme - it's the same as trader doubling up on losing positions with nothing more than hope.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

superfrank wrote:Newsnight's take on Merv's speech today is that an interest rate cut to zero is on its way and that we can expect more QE and also that he "failed to deny that Britain would monetise its debts".
I think it's extremely unlikely that it would come to that. Merv's judgement may be questionable at times, but he must know that for Britain to monitise its debts could plunge the world economy into the kind of tailspin that makes Lehmann Bros look like a walk in the park...

Jeff
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

Ferru123 wrote:I think it's extremely unlikely that it would come to that. Merv's judgement may be questionable at times, but he must know that for Britain to monitise its debts could plunge the world economy into the kind of tailspin that makes Lehmann Bros look like a walk in the park...

Jeff
have to disagree strongly with that Jeff.

imho it's extremely unlikely that they won't monetise the debt, and not just here but in the US, Europe and Japan too.

all the government debt that the central banks have bought with funny money would have to be sold back to the market. i always said that wouldn't happen.

QE Forever And Ever?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-pos ... r-and-ever
Post Reply

Return to “Trading Financial markets”