IS BETFAIR ALL MANIPULATION???
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enzabella2009
- Posts: 747
- Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm
I am recieving some very good tips from england about horse racing + I have my own book that give me an extra edge to make some decisions. I have noticed that so often the odds are far below the real value of the horse. Today, for example, I recieved an e-mail telling me to lay all my money on dollar milk catt 15.50. I managed to get 500 matched on 9/1. Few minutes later I reopened the market to see dollar milk on 5/1. I did not have much notes about this horse so, I decided to call my contact in england to ask if he was sure about this. The guy told me that if he was wrong he pay me all 4000 back. I am quite sure the guy is not the only one that understand about horses in UK. Because happens every single day I am wondering If the market is most of the time just made of manipulation?
OUCH, i never enter a market prior to 10 mins before the eventenzabella2009 wrote:I am recieving some very good tips from england about horse racing + I have my own book that give me an extra edge to make some decisions. I have noticed that so often the odds are far below the real value of the horse. Today, for example, I recieved an e-mail telling me to lay all my money on dollar milk catt 15.50. I managed to get 500 matched on 9/1. Few minutes later I reopened the market to see dollar milk on 5/1. I did not have much notes about this horse so, I decided to call my contact in england to ask if he was sure about this. The guy told me that if he was wrong he pay me all 4000 back. I am quite sure the guy is not the only one that understand about horses in UK. Because happens every single day I am wondering If the market is most of the time just made of manipulation?
Hi enzabella2009,
The Problem with some info is that nobody sat down and discussed it with horse.
Good luck with your sources though.
I prefer to do my home work and always have 2 running in race for me.
Kempton last night for instance
Kempton 17:30 Arizona High 5.30 Brilliant Barca 3.20
£60.00
Kempton 18:30 Scamperdale 4.50 Georgebernardshaw 10.00
£400.00
Kempton 19:30 Sir Boss 6.40 Visions Of Johanna 6.60
£220.00
Kempton 20:00 Strophic 6.60 Tewin Wood 11.00
£450.00
The Problem with some info is that nobody sat down and discussed it with horse.
Good luck with your sources though.
I prefer to do my home work and always have 2 running in race for me.
Kempton last night for instance
Kempton 17:30 Arizona High 5.30 Brilliant Barca 3.20
£60.00
Kempton 18:30 Scamperdale 4.50 Georgebernardshaw 10.00
£400.00
Kempton 19:30 Sir Boss 6.40 Visions Of Johanna 6.60
£220.00
Kempton 20:00 Strophic 6.60 Tewin Wood 11.00
£450.00
No one knows the true value of a horse it's all subjective.
You laid it a 9-1 because someone told you to
whilst other people thought 9-1 was a good price to back it so it shortend, thats how exchanges work everyone has a different opinion on what is value and what is not.
Traders can sometimes jump on and propel a trend further than it would have gone if there were just straight backers and layers in the market.
But i would not say it was manipulation just market forces.
You laid it a 9-1 because someone told you to
whilst other people thought 9-1 was a good price to back it so it shortend, thats how exchanges work everyone has a different opinion on what is value and what is not.
Traders can sometimes jump on and propel a trend further than it would have gone if there were just straight backers and layers in the market.
But i would not say it was manipulation just market forces.
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enzabella2009
- Posts: 747
- Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm
I understand all your points of view but, I am still obsessed about this guy 100% record lay selections. If he knows about horses so well, I believe professional punters must know too about horses and their real value..It does not mean that the horse could never win a race but, it would happen rarely or never. It`s only opinion of course...tx for your reply..
P.S. good luck today....the market seems to offer good opportunitys...
P.S. good luck today....the market seems to offer good opportunitys...
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rubysglory
- Posts: 309
- Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:02 am
Hi Enzabella,enzabella2009 wrote:I have noticed that so often the odds are far below the real value of the horse. ......Because happens every single day I am wondering If the market is most of the time just made of manipulation?
I think what you are saying has a ring of truth about it although your answer may be found in the overround of the on and off course bookmakers. When combined with the effect of the gross profits tax on stakes the effect is quite often markets framed at 140%+. Coincidentally a trading variance of 25% - 35% between the exchanges and the bookmakers is not uncommon, casuing widespread odds movement and 'market manipulation'.
rg
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oddstrader
- Posts: 344
- Joined: Fri Apr 16, 2010 4:55 pm
- Location: Surrey
to me please @ Oddstrader, Trader House, Gullible Road, Sillyland. IDO 10T, with cheques made payable to C. Ash
Many thanks and todays losers to follow
Many thanks and todays losers to follow
Bookies lose money when favourites win.
So it's in their interest to ensure that false favourites steam in, and real favourites drift out...
Jeff
So it's in their interest to ensure that false favourites steam in, and real favourites drift out...
Jeff
enzabella2009 wrote:I have noticed that so often the odds are far below the real value of the horse.
If this guy has a 100% record over a large number of horses, I can only assume that either:
A. He's been extremely lucky
OR
B. The odds of his horses aren't very high
OR
C. He's a liar.
Does this guy have a website? Are his tips independently proofed?
Jeff
A. He's been extremely lucky
OR
B. The odds of his horses aren't very high
OR
C. He's a liar.
Does this guy have a website? Are his tips independently proofed?
Jeff
enzabella2009 wrote:I understand all your points of view but, I am still obsessed about this guy 100% record lay selections.