Cheltenham 2011 - Day One!

[JollyGreen]

I have been unable to perform my usual race assessments but I have received messages asking me to offer some insights for Cheltenham.

In the opening Supreme Novices, Cue Card is a worthy favourite but at the prices I would rather look elsewhere. Cue Card ran second to Menorah so on that form you can see why he is favourite in this market. What I would point out is that the dam wall may give way if punters keep piling into this horse and there is a chance the price may move in. The bookies have been lining up to oppose this horse but perhaps they may cry enough later and the backers will force the price in. The horse I like appears to be the forgotten runner of the race. Zaidpour is a class act and today’s ground should really suit and you can forgive his last run on a bog! This horse is priced at 16 on Betfair and I think he deserves to be 8 so this represents decent value to me. I think that lots of punters are put off because Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Al Ferof in the race but that doesn’t bother me. I think this could be a real opportunity to back pre race for small stakes at 16 and then trade out in running as he is surely going to shorten if all is well with him.

In the Arkle I really do like the chances of Realt Dubh at the prices. This is another classy horse and whilst he has mainly been running on softer going in Ireland his sire has produced plenty of winners on today’s ground. Medermit is all the rage but we have seen he has refused and made plenty of mistakes. If he does that today amongst horses that will go very quick then he will lose his chance. The dark horse is Rock Noir who is aptly named! My concern is that he also was very sticky at his fences before he finally found his stride and ran well.

The 2:40 is a minefield and my two against the field would be Sunnyhillboy and Bensalem. I liked the former last year but he was given too much to do and ran on well when it was all over. He has been laid out for this race and AP McCoy is back on board so he won’t lack for effort from the saddle! Bensalem was a horse I backed last year and he was going very well when he came down 2 out. The prices are skinny so I think this is a race I will watch!Just check to see if any money comes for Adam's Island as he looked a promising novice. He's had some shockers but he clearly has potential and at 24 - 25 it means small stakes could offer a decent return.

The Champion Hurdle will be very interesting now that Binocular has been withdrawn. I have to oppose Peddler’s Cross despite the support for him this morning. He was given a real battle by Bygones of Brid at Kelso last time out, something that connections did not expect in my humble opinion. He was sent off 1/6 favourite and it seemed like it was just going to be a blow for him before the Champion Hurdle. The race turned into a gruelling slog up the hill and that must have taken a lot out of the horse. That was only 1 month ago and that is not the prep race you want before such a prestigious race. Hurricane Fly is being backed and many people are saying he is the banker for the Irish. I am slightly concerned at his preparation too, not in terms of a hard slog but more by the fact that this horse seems delicate for want of a better description. He doesn’t seem to stand a lot of racing and has missed Cheltenham before because of problems. I don’t know if it was an injury caused in a race or if he was not fresh and ready? Either way if you look at his stats they show that he performs better on ground with a bit more give in it or when he is as fresh as a daisy. He had two quick races in December and another at the end of January so that together with the state of today’s ground does put me off slightly. He is a smart horse but at the prices and with the concerns I have listed I could not back him. The forgotten horse is Dunguib who was the supposed good thing for last year’s Supreme Novices Hurdle. I think he will be really suited by the fast pace we should see today. This is normal in the Champion Hurdle but this year Overturn is a known front runner and he will go off as if the Devil himself is after him! You cannot forget Menorah but there is just something that niggles me about this horse and I cannot put my typing fingers on it!

That’s it from me so I wish you all good luck in whatever you do

[lilgreenback]

Hi JG,

Many thanks for taking the time to post up you thoughts for what is hopefully a great days racing. Your observations are insightful and well reasoned and hopefully profitable; they certainly were last year. Best wishes to all be traders, layers or backers.

Cheers