Lay favorite
No.
The Betfair SP odds are pretty much perfect (you can verify this using http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/fav/index.php), so long-term you'd lose money, due to Betfair's commission. You might also be interested in this article (by Euler) on market efficiency: http://www.probabilitytheory.info/conte ... ge-markets.
Jeff
The Betfair SP odds are pretty much perfect (you can verify this using http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/fav/index.php), so long-term you'd lose money, due to Betfair's commission. You might also be interested in this article (by Euler) on market efficiency: http://www.probabilitytheory.info/conte ... ge-markets.
Jeff
petardo wrote:I have a question if the simply lay every favorite or back every favorite can get me breakeven.I need some comission generator.I know that favorites won about 30% of races.Thanks for help.
I presume your idea is that you're trying to offset the premium charges by generating commission. (Do correct me if I'm wrong).
So in fact since the markets are so efficient like Jeff says, you'd actually just break-even (roughly) since although you paid commission on each winning bet, that would offset your premium charge.
e.g. win 100 on one bet, lose 100 on another horse. You then pay commission on the win, which would offset the premium charge, but you'd still be net 0.
It would however be net positive if you're on a commission less than 3% since it's "generated commission" (paid + implied comm divided by 2) that offsets the PC.
e.g. win 100, lose 100, -1 for paid commission (min 1% comm assumed), +3 for implied commission. net market pnl is -1, but PC is offset by 2.
However just laying the favourite all the time, although might turn out break-even in the long term, would produce such a massive volatility of returns that you'd probably break your bank before too long.
I really hope I'm making sense!
Cheers,
James
So in fact since the markets are so efficient like Jeff says, you'd actually just break-even (roughly) since although you paid commission on each winning bet, that would offset your premium charge.
e.g. win 100 on one bet, lose 100 on another horse. You then pay commission on the win, which would offset the premium charge, but you'd still be net 0.
It would however be net positive if you're on a commission less than 3% since it's "generated commission" (paid + implied comm divided by 2) that offsets the PC.
e.g. win 100, lose 100, -1 for paid commission (min 1% comm assumed), +3 for implied commission. net market pnl is -1, but PC is offset by 2.
However just laying the favourite all the time, although might turn out break-even in the long term, would produce such a massive volatility of returns that you'd probably break your bank before too long.
I really hope I'm making sense!
Cheers,
James
