Market Manipulation
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
I would say it has been bad for the last few days not just the last few races.
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
I wonder if some people are getting more aggressive to make up for reduced profits due to the premium charge.
Spoof money used to be mainly positions outside the money trying to hold/force a price, fooling those following the WoM. These days there's much more of people taking the money with very large amounts then quickly reversing the position.
More so than ever trading the nags on price action is just a game of bluff and not really trading.
Spoof money used to be mainly positions outside the money trying to hold/force a price, fooling those following the WoM. These days there's much more of people taking the money with very large amounts then quickly reversing the position.
More so than ever trading the nags on price action is just a game of bluff and not really trading.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Can't say I have seen much evidence to say people have stopped, have you?RafterP wrote:Do u think its because there are less big traders on because of PC3? There is less chance of someone calling their bluff when they take up positions for 3-4k?
I would say the PC3 hits the smaller and medium traders more. Take the £350,000 a year guy from a while back, could they earn £140,000 else where? But take the £50,000 a year guy can he earn £20,000 elsewhere, probably.
You do get little periods of a few days where there's loads of manipulation, then it calms down a bit. They can't keep doing the same thing or people will work out their MO. I don't think it has anything to do with the new PC personally, just hang in there and try not to do anything rash, things will turn. It feels pretty thin to me today as well which doesn't help
I think the PC3 has made some difference, a lot of people seem to be trading more on Betdaq. Not as much difference as a lot of people thought though.
I'm finding it hard going today, i'll be lucky to break even!
There are new traders in town and they've got bigger balls and bigger banks than most!
I'm finding it hard going today, i'll be lucky to break even!
There are new traders in town and they've got bigger balls and bigger banks than most!
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
That's good advice.hgodden wrote:You do get little periods of a few days where there's loads of manipulation, then it calms down a bit. They can't keep doing the same thing or people will work out their MO. I don't think it has anything to do with the new PC personally, just hang in there and try not to do anything rash, things will turn. It feels pretty thin to me today as well which doesn't help
I've decided not to trade much during weekday afternoons while I pursue other things. It's not worth the effort atm and the manipulation has started to annoy me whereas previously I just accepted it. Not good for the required trading mindset.
I once read on Adam Heathcote's blog that he went something like 80 races without a loser - there's just no way anyone could achieve that kind of performance now trading manually pre-race. I occasionally get 20 but that's on smaller stakes.
im finding it impossible .the money is jumping every where,im glad to see others feeling the same way ,i dont think now thats its just my inexperience.but a bad day like to day would wreck a small operator like me.
so ive started painting the living room,and save the money for a better day,
Marc
so ive started painting the living room,and save the money for a better day,
Marc
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
I still think there are decent opportunities, just you need to be wary of the manipulation.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Andy, have you gone back to betfair now as I understood you had previously made the switch?
I agree with your comments totally about the 350k + people not leaving because after the initial feet stamping they realise exactly what you say that its not going to be easy making 150k else where for the time being, and the people who earned 50k a year ( a very high paid salary tax free) are suddenly earning a regular salary for the risk they take.
If your correct then have bf done a brilliant calculated decision for their profits? Midlevel traders will go, the big traders will fill their liquidity whilst bf increase.profits by 40%.
I agree with your comments totally about the 350k + people not leaving because after the initial feet stamping they realise exactly what you say that its not going to be easy making 150k else where for the time being, and the people who earned 50k a year ( a very high paid salary tax free) are suddenly earning a regular salary for the risk they take.
If your correct then have bf done a brilliant calculated decision for their profits? Midlevel traders will go, the big traders will fill their liquidity whilst bf increase.profits by 40%.
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spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
So your move to Betdaq was shortlived then Andy?andyfuller wrote:I still think there are decent opportunities, just you need to be wary of the manipulation.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Time will tell if their plan pays off I guess. What that plan is though you can't know for sure but the only thing you can know is that they want bigger profits (just like everyone else on this forum I guess).
Yes I am on Betfair, I do trade on Betdaq as well but I can't trade both at once, I know some can but it just doesn't work for me.
I am not able to just leave Betfair as I don't have the finances like some of the big players who can live by other means, if they wished. So while I put things in place to move on to pastures new I will still be trading sports and mainly at Betfair as I can make a lot more there than I can on Betdaq even after the PC.
But the one thing I have decided is that there is no future for me in sports trading. I got what I mainly wanted from it plus more, those who read my blog back in the day will know what I wanted from trading. The music stopped earlier than I thought it would but you have to live with that and move on.
As I see no future in it for me I am no longer to fussed about what happens with both exchanges tbh, I fully expect BF to bring in more charges down the line as I think they have/are got/getting away with this change.
Betdaq may well turn out to be a viable option given time but I can't plan my future on what Betdaq may or may not do some thing. So I have come to the decision that I am best off moving on to new things which I can plan my future on. As we have seen, the goal posts can move very quickly in sports trading.
As they say you should always learn a lesson from your losses - I have learnt plenty from this episode
PS. I found today pretty good in the end, there were some good opportunities tonight.
Yes I am on Betfair, I do trade on Betdaq as well but I can't trade both at once, I know some can but it just doesn't work for me.
I am not able to just leave Betfair as I don't have the finances like some of the big players who can live by other means, if they wished. So while I put things in place to move on to pastures new I will still be trading sports and mainly at Betfair as I can make a lot more there than I can on Betdaq even after the PC.
But the one thing I have decided is that there is no future for me in sports trading. I got what I mainly wanted from it plus more, those who read my blog back in the day will know what I wanted from trading. The music stopped earlier than I thought it would but you have to live with that and move on.
As I see no future in it for me I am no longer to fussed about what happens with both exchanges tbh, I fully expect BF to bring in more charges down the line as I think they have/are got/getting away with this change.
Betdaq may well turn out to be a viable option given time but I can't plan my future on what Betdaq may or may not do some thing. So I have come to the decision that I am best off moving on to new things which I can plan my future on. As we have seen, the goal posts can move very quickly in sports trading.
As they say you should always learn a lesson from your losses - I have learnt plenty from this episode
PS. I found today pretty good in the end, there were some good opportunities tonight.