Hi Switesh,
Thanks for sharing your information.
I started out doing similar things and run test programs most days.
Over time you will start to gather data and you will start to see patterns. (They literally jump out at the page, sometimes)
Some suggestions:-
Try and use different Betfair accounts if possible so when you extract your P&L over a three month period you can attribute those profits to a particular single strategy. (use the NigelK spreadsheet for tracking your P&L), it is superb for showing which courses to bet on and which not to, amongst other things..(I hate Kempton for example!, it has the worse figures for me, so I no longer bet there for either in play nor pre race).
Try varying your stakes. Yesterday (Whilst my son and I was at the new Batman movie (bril by the way!)) I ran two tests (real Money though) on my account and my Mrs. EXACTLY the same spreadsheet, my stakes were twice hers. She won £120+ I lost -£64. I know why it happened. This time last year you could put ten times those stakes though no problem, but not at the moment. If you are still using the practice mode, try and use real money. (NB: put some safeguards in place i.e. a simple calculation on your spreadsheet that monitors the balance. You can insert a simple calculation that 'stops' everything if the balance goes below say £50 (?) i.e. your BOT goes crazy!
look at where you are losing money not just making it (difficult when you are gathering data initially, I agree, but it makes a big difference over the year). Imagine of you could just strike out your two biggest losses today? (then times that by 365?)
Above all, try new things. Even things that seem very unlikely. I stated a now proven supplementary system to my main systems; exactly 100 days ago today. Logically it shouldn't work, but it does. It has only made on average 81p a race! but has run on 4786 races so far (takes ten mins to set up in a morning). So there are always new angles and opportunities.
Above all enjoy it! I really enjoy building new systems and testing them. My Mrs thinks I'm a sad git (a geek I think she called me!!), but she won't be saying that when we are lying on the beach in Mexico courtesy of Betfair!
Keep it up, dont give up!!
Regards
Peter
Losing strategies wanted
Switesh,
If you summarise your -4.68 result by number of runners you'll find that if you had restricted your strategy on races with equal to or less than 9 runners would've yielded you +11.37.
This shouldn't automatically lead to conclusion that races with 9 or less with random offer strategy would work in the long run. It wouldn't.
Looking at historical data will give you a good insight but the biggest difference will be in understanding the difference and similarity between causation and correlation.
If you summarise your -4.68 result by number of runners you'll find that if you had restricted your strategy on races with equal to or less than 9 runners would've yielded you +11.37.
This shouldn't automatically lead to conclusion that races with 9 or less with random offer strategy would work in the long run. It wouldn't.
Looking at historical data will give you a good insight but the biggest difference will be in understanding the difference and similarity between causation and correlation.
Hi Peter Le and Photon, thank you both Kindly for your excellent suggestions.
In fact while I was looking over the collected data I noticed that most markets were between medium to high volatility (i.e. most front-runners had traded between 7 to 20 ticks range) in the last 6 mins, including some of the races at Goodwood. And I then recalled that Peter Webb had mentioned in the recent 'Goodwood Newsletter' that volatility was to be expected.
But 'Causation' might leaves me a bit suspended. Identifying these 'Trigger Points' is going to beat me, especially with my lack of knowledge about racing, its key participants, and their tactics.
Though coincidentally, last week I was listening to a podcast "Isn't Gold Supposed to Go Up When Stocks Go Down?" and the analysts were discussing Corelation and Causation between Gold, Inflation, bear market.
I will listen to it again to see if it'll throw up any ideas to understand Causation in context of short term trading.
For anyone keen on the podcast its available here (about 10 mins long):
http://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/scot ... d482507661
Regards,
Switesh
In fact while I was looking over the collected data I noticed that most markets were between medium to high volatility (i.e. most front-runners had traded between 7 to 20 ticks range) in the last 6 mins, including some of the races at Goodwood. And I then recalled that Peter Webb had mentioned in the recent 'Goodwood Newsletter' that volatility was to be expected.
Good suggestion Photon. I spent last weekend studying the overall volatility of the market (for that particular day the experiment was done) and in the next few days I will be looking to study 'Correlation'.the biggest difference will be in understanding the difference and similarity between causation and correlation.
But 'Causation' might leaves me a bit suspended. Identifying these 'Trigger Points' is going to beat me, especially with my lack of knowledge about racing, its key participants, and their tactics.
Though coincidentally, last week I was listening to a podcast "Isn't Gold Supposed to Go Up When Stocks Go Down?" and the analysts were discussing Corelation and Causation between Gold, Inflation, bear market.
I will listen to it again to see if it'll throw up any ideas to understand Causation in context of short term trading.
For anyone keen on the podcast its available here (about 10 mins long):
http://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/scot ... d482507661
Regards,
Switesh
switesh wrote:Hi Peter Le and Photon, thank you both Kindly for your excellent suggestions.
In fact while I was looking over the collected data I noticed that most markets were between medium to high volatility (i.e. most front-runners had traded between 7 to 20 ticks range) in the last 6 mins, including some of the races at Goodwood. And I then recalled that Peter Webb had mentioned in the recent 'Goodwood Newsletter' that volatility was to be expected.
Good suggestion Photon. I spent last weekend studying the overall volatility of the market (for that particular day the experiment was done) and in the next few days I will be looking to study 'Correlation'.the biggest difference will be in understanding the difference and similarity between causation and correlation.
But 'Causation' might leaves me a bit suspended. Identifying these 'Trigger Points' is going to beat me, especially with my lack of knowledge about racing, its key participants, and their tactics.
Though coincidentally, last week I was listening to a podcast "Isn't Gold Supposed to Go Up When Stocks Go Down?" and the analysts were discussing Corelation and Causation between Gold, Inflation, bear market.
I will listen to it again to see if it'll throw up any ideas to understand Causation in context of short term trading.
For anyone keen on the podcast its available here (about 10 mins long):
http://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/scot ... d482507661
Regards,
Switesh
Hi
it's a good thread this..
did you make any progress Switesh or draw any conclusions?
regards
Peter
Hi Peter Le,PeterLe wrote:Switesh or draw any conclusions?
I'm afraid I haven't done much random trading or anything else for quite a while. Since early this year I set my top priority to learning to read the market and trading manually, until that is achieved with some level of comfort I've put everything else on the back-burner. I will get back to experimenting but I don't want to split my focus at the moment until I 'find my feet' in trading. Just grinding practice 7 days a week all races of the day - very little break.
I wish you well, but I question whether what you are seeking is achievable. In my opinion, the market is, to a large extent, random and unreadable. If we assume that the market is efficient and therefore usually represents the true price of a horse, then surely it is unpredictable (unless you have some way of knowing what the true odds of a horse will be in a minute's time, in light of all known public and private information).switesh wrote: I'm afraid I haven't done much random trading or anything else for quite a while. Since early this year I set my top priority to learning to read the market
We can model how markets generally behave in terms of things like over-reacting and mean reverting some of the time, and we can arguably predict whether a horse will remain range-bound (although there is disagreement on this), but that's about it.
Let's put it this way. If there were some 'secret sauce' that let you predict accurately the collective behaviour of hundreds or thousands of market participants, that information would be rendered useless as soon as the cat got out of the bag (which it would, given how many intelligent people there are out there looking for an edge).
Perhaps you'll prove me wrong, but as someone who has spent far more hours than is healthy contemplating the market and watching market moves, I think you may be looking for order within a system that is - on one level at least - pretty much completely random.
Jeff
Hi JeffFerru123 wrote: Perhaps you'll prove me wrong, but as someone who has spent far more hours than is healthy contemplating the market and watching market moves, I think you may be looking for order within a system that is - on one level at least - pretty much completely random.
Jeff
I know you have been around as long as me and others on here..6/7 years or so
Given what you have said above; why not accept that?
Even very profitable traders can't always predict the direction (in horse racing markets for instance), but they've made LARGE profits out of this game, given what they have.
Have you ever seen someone searching for their car keys only to keep going back to the same place because they 'think' they've left them there (I've seen family members doing this). It is as if the brain is in conflict with itself. You really know that they are not there, but go back for one last check anyway. The search for market prediction is exactly the same.
Yes, you can predict to some extent along with 'gut feel' and even self made indicators etc, but no one will get it right all the time and I think you will drive yourself around the bend trying to find it!
Sometimes its hard to accept, but once you have it may open new horizons for you? If you concentrate on the things you can predict and change, it may help you on your journey.
I know the amount of effort you have put in Jeff and it would be great if one day you said "I've just racked up my first six figures..and on my way to super PC"..but in your own words above, I dont think you will find an answer?
Regards
Peter
Hi Peter
I'm not sure what it is that I'm not accepting.
All I was saying to Switesh in effect is that he should be mindful of the possibility that he is working hard to try to understand something that cannot be understood. Over time, he may acquire that elusive 'feel' for the market or find patterns that enable him to predict the market long term, but I question whether that is achievable, given that the market is such a dynamic and ever-changing system. I don't like to just stand by if I see someone possibly making some of the mistakes I've made.
As for my own progress on Betfair, all I'll say is 'watch this space'.
Jeff
I'm not sure what it is that I'm not accepting.
All I was saying to Switesh in effect is that he should be mindful of the possibility that he is working hard to try to understand something that cannot be understood. Over time, he may acquire that elusive 'feel' for the market or find patterns that enable him to predict the market long term, but I question whether that is achievable, given that the market is such a dynamic and ever-changing system. I don't like to just stand by if I see someone possibly making some of the mistakes I've made.
As for my own progress on Betfair, all I'll say is 'watch this space'.
Jeff
Hi Jeff
I was just talking about being able to predict the market in general. Thats why I was keen to understand from Switesh whether he had drawn any conclusions as he seems to have a similar approach to you in the early days, ie by analysing the markets using an 'element' of technical analysis (not necessarily deep technical, but charts etc).
There are no doubt some people (Such as James1) who has honed and refined a method over the years to reach a good level of profitability doing this, but many successful people haven't. I personally have my own method via my excel sheet that attempts to indicate the direction and suitability for scalping etc. Have built this up over the years and is much better than random. If nothing else it gives me a psychological crutch which enables me to enter markets with confidence. (By the way, referring to the "Scalp v Swing" thread; I am able to scalp very effectively and monitor real time as Im placing bets. Equally I can predict swingy markets 5 hours out (but sadly not the direction!) The trick there is a function of odds and race grade by the way.
Peter often talks about sitting in a market waiting till an opportunity arises and then jumps on that opportunity. Similarly, if you watch any of Mugs videos, he doesn't always know the direction either until just as it is about to start.
I guess what I was getting at, was you; Switesh or whoever can spend an enormous amount of time looking for an answer on market predictability but dont get too bogged down in pursuit of an answer as you can do very well without it
Regards
Peter
I was just talking about being able to predict the market in general. Thats why I was keen to understand from Switesh whether he had drawn any conclusions as he seems to have a similar approach to you in the early days, ie by analysing the markets using an 'element' of technical analysis (not necessarily deep technical, but charts etc).
There are no doubt some people (Such as James1) who has honed and refined a method over the years to reach a good level of profitability doing this, but many successful people haven't. I personally have my own method via my excel sheet that attempts to indicate the direction and suitability for scalping etc. Have built this up over the years and is much better than random. If nothing else it gives me a psychological crutch which enables me to enter markets with confidence. (By the way, referring to the "Scalp v Swing" thread; I am able to scalp very effectively and monitor real time as Im placing bets. Equally I can predict swingy markets 5 hours out (but sadly not the direction!) The trick there is a function of odds and race grade by the way.
Peter often talks about sitting in a market waiting till an opportunity arises and then jumps on that opportunity. Similarly, if you watch any of Mugs videos, he doesn't always know the direction either until just as it is about to start.
I guess what I was getting at, was you; Switesh or whoever can spend an enormous amount of time looking for an answer on market predictability but dont get too bogged down in pursuit of an answer as you can do very well without it
Regards
Peter
Hi Peter
That was basically what I was getting at (although I possibly could have expressed myself more clearly!).
In terms of reading the market, I don't believe it's something that can be acquired through hours and hours of observing markets. Also, I'm not sure it's necessary to read the market. You don't need to know what the market is going to do next if you have a long-term statistical edge. I appreciate that I'm probably preaching to the choir here.
Jeff
That was basically what I was getting at (although I possibly could have expressed myself more clearly!).
In terms of reading the market, I don't believe it's something that can be acquired through hours and hours of observing markets. Also, I'm not sure it's necessary to read the market. You don't need to know what the market is going to do next if you have a long-term statistical edge. I appreciate that I'm probably preaching to the choir here.
Jeff
PeterLe wrote: I guess what I was getting at, was you; Switesh or whoever can spend an enormous amount of time looking for an answer on market predictability but dont get too bogged down in pursuit of an answer as you can do very well without it
Regards
Peter
Started yesterday's trading session by making a number of loses on the fav's when suddenly after about 10 races I began feeling a pattern that the market just wanted to back the short-priced fav's heavily. So I switched sides and turned the day's PL around.
Was reviewing my trades right now when I glanced at my spreadsheet and found this:
If you backed all fav's 5 mins pre-off (automated) and closed at official off that would've netted 117 ticks.
If you used IP stakes you would've got approx $35 in profit.
If you used fixed $100 stakes you would've got approx $85 in profit.
As a consequence of the fav steaming, you could've also layed the 3rd & 4th fav's (if priced under 15) and walked away with approx $45 in profit using IP stakes.
I'm not implying that the above strategy is going to work everyday, but yesterday I began sensing the pattern in the market and realised that this automated strategy would do fine.
I'll be looking for another day when the market begins to display this same characteristic and make a note of it. Will feed nicely into an Automated Strategy.
----------------------------------------------------------
Now that winter racing's here time to put the spare time between races fiddling with excel & automation.
Was reviewing my trades right now when I glanced at my spreadsheet and found this:
If you backed all fav's 5 mins pre-off (automated) and closed at official off that would've netted 117 ticks.
If you used IP stakes you would've got approx $35 in profit.
If you used fixed $100 stakes you would've got approx $85 in profit.
As a consequence of the fav steaming, you could've also layed the 3rd & 4th fav's (if priced under 15) and walked away with approx $45 in profit using IP stakes.
I'm not implying that the above strategy is going to work everyday, but yesterday I began sensing the pattern in the market and realised that this automated strategy would do fine.
I'll be looking for another day when the market begins to display this same characteristic and make a note of it. Will feed nicely into an Automated Strategy.
----------------------------------------------------------
Now that winter racing's here time to put the spare time between races fiddling with excel & automation.
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Forgot to mention earlier - I began noticing early gambles that persisted. These were in the form of Open Market Orders.
Even spoof money kept pushing itself down by a few ticks ever so often.
Here's an example from one of the races from Limerick. Most other markets began exhibiting similar patterns - that was my reason behind 'sensing' what was going on in the market.
Even spoof money kept pushing itself down by a few ticks ever so often.
Here's an example from one of the races from Limerick. Most other markets began exhibiting similar patterns - that was my reason behind 'sensing' what was going on in the market.
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switesh wrote:I began feeling a pattern that the market just wanted to back the short-priced fav's heavily. So I switched sides and turned the day's PL around.
I noticed this happening, too.
When I get time off work, I'm keen to analyse if/how the favourites' finishing positions affect the market.
For example, if the opening races of the day are won by favourites, will that attract more money to favourites in the races that follow?
I've also experienced days where the favourites are loveless, drifting race after race. Perhaps these were days when the favourites ran poorly. I'll investigate further, for sure.
Nice looking spreadsheet btw.