Losing strategies wanted

[lilgreenback]

I think a lot would depend on where you put your opening position, having the knowledge of the markets and the skill you have from many years of successful trading. I would think you would have probably come out ahead £12 to £15.

I tried a similar thing a while back by looking at certain markets; opening a position and placing a closing order 3 to 5 ticks away to catch small swing trades, rather than taking the SP. It worked OK for about 3 days till I cocked up having a lay bet matched which went in play. AND natch it won moral of the story always watch the milk boiling.

Yeah I reckon you made a profit

[Euler]

It's completely random, there is no skill in it, it was just automated. It started four minutes out and exited at post time.

[Iron]

How many trades were made in total?

Jeff

[Euler]

How many trades were made in total?

Jeff

That's up for guessing as well. I'm trying to make everybody think it through.

It's exactly the set up you posted earlier, starting at four minutes out but exiting at zero. No trick questions or anything and the results were more or less what I expected.

[superfrank]

what decided the entry points? we can't guess much without knowing the criteria for getting in...

[Iron]

The entry point is wherever the market happens to be when Peter's bot arrives at the market.

Jeff

what decided the entry points? we can't guess much without knowing the criteria for getting in...

[PeterLe]

How many trades were made in total?

Jeff

That's up for guessing as well. I'm trying to make everybody think it through.

It's exactly the set up you posted earlier, starting at four minutes out but exiting at zero. No trick questions or anything and the results were more or less what I expected.

I've been testing something similar recently. It has a little more science in it as opposed to just random. I've tried it with/without stops in conjunction with looking for 1, 2 and 3 ticks profit. I even tried one that had no predetermined exit (it merely traded out 20 secs beforehand).

My guess is that your P&L was plus/minus £5.
regards
Peter

Edit: Just found this old post i did some time ago:-

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2285

Its moved on since then but it really doesn't take a massive amount of effort to move something from a negative to a positive..(Just work out what is losing and take then out next time; rinse and repeat)
It will be interesting to see if your data correlates to mine

[superfrank]

The entry point is wherever the market happens to be when Peter's bot arrives at the market.

Jeff

what decided the entry points? we can't guess much without knowing the criteria for getting in...

so at 4 mins back or lay each runner with a 1 tick profit target and red up the losers at the off?

[Iron]

Frank - Yes, and you take the available price, rather than offering money to the queue.

Jeff

[Zenyatta]

I've never been able to make a single penny from trading, in 18 months of trying. Don't really want to talk about it however, too depressing Even when I can pick every single price direction without fail, I still lose. How it that possible? (Answer: I can never get matched at the prices I want because people always gobble up the value ahead of me, and I end up getting a poor price and then the price always jumps around so much it always forces a stop -loss).

Peter on the other hand, keeps winning even when he's trying to lose - he mentioned on his blog a while back he tried to make some losses punting to offset the premium charge but all his picks kept winning

[Iron]

Even when I can pick every single price direction without fail, I still lose. How it that possible?

You can have a 90% strike rate, but the 10% that go against you can wipe out your profits.

Prediction is over-rated!

Jeff

[Zenyatta]

That's not the reason Jeff, the reason I believe is that there is serious skullduggery and price manipulation going on the pre-race markets. Not happy mate

[Iron]

But surely the manipulators will push the price in the direction you want it to go as often as they send it the other way.

OK, it's possible that people will see you in the marketplace and move the market against your position, but unless you're playing with large stakes, they probably won't even notice you.

Jeff

That's not the reason Jeff, the reason I believe is that there is serious skullduggery and price manipulation going on the pre-race markets. Not happy mate

[rubysglory]

So, following on from Jeff's suggestion. I created a rules file in the automation, tested it on the first race; then I put the strategy through 22 markets today using £10 stakes. How much do you reckon it lost today?

\

Statistically, over the longer term , your loss should have been near enough to £11 - turnover less 5%.

rg

[superfrank]

That's not the reason Jeff, the reason I believe is that there is serious skullduggery and price manipulation going on the pre-race markets. Not happy mate

i suspect that reading this and your earlier post that you're too slow off the mark and not being decisive enough when you see an opportunity (no good waiting for others to confirm it).
also you're deluding yourself if you think you call 90% of the moves right. it might feel like that but i very much doubt it - if you can prove it i'll offer you a job to be my co-trader (50/50 split) - you call the shots and i'll trade them!!
btw, don't use stop losses - they should be called loss bankers.