US Presidential Election 2012
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
yeah it started to become pretty clear early on that it wasn't going to be as close as the media wanted us to believe.
on a political note i'm glad Obama won - the lesser of 2 evils imho.
Romney essentially stood for yet more trickle-down economics without tackling the real problems - just big tax-cuts for the rich, the greed of whom was ultimately responsible for the financial crisis, and a hope that somehow that would be enough.
what the Republicans needed was another Reagan, someone with the balls to get back to true free market economics. in the west no one has the chance to vote for that anymore.
with the demographics of the US, and the voting split on racial lines, it's gonna be very difficult for the Republicans in future.
on a political note i'm glad Obama won - the lesser of 2 evils imho.
Romney essentially stood for yet more trickle-down economics without tackling the real problems - just big tax-cuts for the rich, the greed of whom was ultimately responsible for the financial crisis, and a hope that somehow that would be enough.
what the Republicans needed was another Reagan, someone with the balls to get back to true free market economics. in the west no one has the chance to vote for that anymore.
with the demographics of the US, and the voting split on racial lines, it's gonna be very difficult for the Republicans in future.
Buy on the rumour..Sell on the news
4 years ago I lost £17k when Obama won the presidency, so I had a vested interest in trading last nights election. All in all it was a dull affair and trading was slow and painful but eventually the confidence behind the Obama campaign held sway.
At midnight Obama was 1.25 and I anticipated a slight drift which materialised (to 1.34) prior to the first States results. Indiana, Kentucky and Vermont called first and although Romney took an early lead (19--3), money arrived for Obama driving his odds down to 1.24 and then to 1.2 and 1.17 when W. Virginia and S Carolina fell to Romney. Interesting stuff considering Romney's lead had risen to (33--3).
As the blue States began declaring and Obama's deficit turned into a lead (56--40), his odds fell to a low of 1.07. Obviously the exit polls were confirming that he wasn't about to get routed.
There was a longish gap (>30 mins) before the next batch of results and news was thin on the ground. During this period Obama drifted to double the odds (1.14) until Alabama, Connecticut, Georgia and N Jersey declared driving Obama downward again to 1.11 despite Romney again taking the lead (78--82).
Another patch of doubts set in as he drifted again to 1.18 just before the exit poll news from the swing states. More heavy money arrived based on the background data driving his odds downward to 1.12 and that move was accelerated as he held Pennsylvania driving the odds to 1.08 before Wisconsin declared for Obama. At 1.04 there was little or no doubt that the background data was confirming a win.
The popular vote is almost 50-50 and Florida are too busy enjoying the sun to be bothered to count their votes.
My PC and TV's were all on full power monitoring data during the 3 hour stint. For the pundits out there; the election was won because whilst Romney courted the Independent vote, Obama secured the Latino's (after letting a few million more of them into key states..well done Axelrod).
Good result and an interesting exercise where the gaps in the news brought the layers out and what looked like good news for Romney caused the Obama backers to plunge even more money on Obama.
4 years ago I lost £17k when Obama won the presidency, so I had a vested interest in trading last nights election. All in all it was a dull affair and trading was slow and painful but eventually the confidence behind the Obama campaign held sway.
At midnight Obama was 1.25 and I anticipated a slight drift which materialised (to 1.34) prior to the first States results. Indiana, Kentucky and Vermont called first and although Romney took an early lead (19--3), money arrived for Obama driving his odds down to 1.24 and then to 1.2 and 1.17 when W. Virginia and S Carolina fell to Romney. Interesting stuff considering Romney's lead had risen to (33--3).
As the blue States began declaring and Obama's deficit turned into a lead (56--40), his odds fell to a low of 1.07. Obviously the exit polls were confirming that he wasn't about to get routed.
There was a longish gap (>30 mins) before the next batch of results and news was thin on the ground. During this period Obama drifted to double the odds (1.14) until Alabama, Connecticut, Georgia and N Jersey declared driving Obama downward again to 1.11 despite Romney again taking the lead (78--82).
Another patch of doubts set in as he drifted again to 1.18 just before the exit poll news from the swing states. More heavy money arrived based on the background data driving his odds downward to 1.12 and that move was accelerated as he held Pennsylvania driving the odds to 1.08 before Wisconsin declared for Obama. At 1.04 there was little or no doubt that the background data was confirming a win.
The popular vote is almost 50-50 and Florida are too busy enjoying the sun to be bothered to count their votes.
My PC and TV's were all on full power monitoring data during the 3 hour stint. For the pundits out there; the election was won because whilst Romney courted the Independent vote, Obama secured the Latino's (after letting a few million more of them into key states..well done Axelrod).
Good result and an interesting exercise where the gaps in the news brought the layers out and what looked like good news for Romney caused the Obama backers to plunge even more money on Obama.
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
slightly odd analysis there James in that the current "score" made absolutely no difference to the betting - it was all about the swing states and the splits in votes in other states giving clues as to the outcomes in the states where it mattered. (and also the sentiment of what those involved were saying on Twitter etc.).
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
I had a long trading day so decided to call it a day as soon as realized the polls that were known during the day were in line with the first results. I had a small green (had laid Romney at 2.5 and 2.6 a long time ago) so packed my stuff and went to bed. Epic stuff!
I was happy to see Obama had won in the morning. Don't think it's a matter of 'lesser evil', politics are really emptied these days, the real economy is master and commander now...
I was happy to see Obama had won in the morning. Don't think it's a matter of 'lesser evil', politics are really emptied these days, the real economy is master and commander now...
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
if only that were true! big finance is "master and commander".CaerMyrddin wrote:the real economy is master and commander now...
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
Fair enough, but don't igonre the power of other sectors...
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nomaansuun
- Posts: 1
- Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:31 pm