Betdaq: is it worth the effort?

[daofs1]

Well that was weird. As someone else pointed out, it IS possible to trade the Betdaq football markets but you need a completely different approach. Clearly there are a few people laying in big size but miles away from fair value. I can see a possible strategy in putting up daft prices, long goals, with a few seconds grace if filled before either offsetting on Betfair or a goal being scored and cleaning up. I'll give it another go on a Prem game

[steven1976]

Whilst i understand the points for money being filled, and there are opportunities available, my main point is I don't see much being made for the effort on Betdaq.

For the few matches I have seen including premier league there is no money apart from the large spread that is placed around the BF odds. Betdaq are not new to the game anymore and therefore I dont see how they are going to progress. In regards to football,why would punters go to football markets when the odds offered in the spread are not as good at BF?
Why would traders go there when there is no money being traded?

I would also guess at saying that betdaq are only covering 20-30% of the football games that betfair does and therefore if punters cant bet on the majority of games that they would like to, then how will they bring them in? They will just go else where in my opinion.

So i understand the arguments for lower commissions etc... but unless BDaq get covering more games I dont see them growing on the football or they would be showing signs of it by now.

The easiest way to find out if its worth the effort is as you are doing daofs and participate and see for yourself and make your own decisions based on that.

[andyfuller]

I agree that liquidity is lower and poor on some sports, but so was Betfair when I started and that didn't stop me from establishing myself in the market well before people joined the fray.

One problem now though is that there is viable competition for 'exchange money'. When Betfair started there wasn't really a market place for exchange betting. So overtime the liquidity built at just one of the options, Betfair. It was a new market and money attracted money.

Now that we would like to see a move away from Betfair, there is no need for the vast majority of exchange users. Most lose money on exchanges so couldn't care about the PC, that doesn't just include traders, we need to remember the vast range of types of people who use exchanges, as as a group we are often guilty of thinking everything is about trading.

So while we, traders, would like to see people move, we need the punters etc to move with us but they have no reason whatsoever to move so will stay put. with that, traders will have to stay put.

On a small scale Betdaq can be worth the effort, I have posted screen grabs in the past showing as such as has Peter, but for most people in our fragmented 'industry' there is no reason whatsoever to move.

[giulio2010]

Euler wrote:I agree that liquidity is lower and poor on some sports, but so was Betfair when I started and that didn't stop me from establishing myself in the market well before people joined the fray.

Betfair was founded in 2000 so did Betdaq.
Both companies have had 12 years to do better but Betfair has always been in the lead. The strange thing is how it was possible that a new product of its kind to have been founded in the same year by two different companies, one in London and one in Dublin? Dermot Desmond also had greater liquidity than Betfair founders and could try stifle the birth of Betfair. What influenced it? Your nationalism that has preferred an English product over an Irish product? Was betfair technology better? The advertising perhaps? I do not know, however, there is definitely something that us mere mortals do not know how to answer. Betdaq then had a golden opportunity when of the announcement Betfair premium charges but, has left to run things as if nothing had happened. As Andyfuller saying not just us traders make the Betfair market so do not take it for granted that everyone would have taken the premium charges as unfair, but we should emphasize that not only traders are in net profit, but also many professional punters and even their numbers may be greater then top traders..Let's not forget that successful punters have been around decades before successful sport traders so their number may be greater then we think. They finally find a site that don't kick them out but they have to pay 60% charges. I am sure they are psd off as much as traders. Bare in mind that despite the fact I think there are more successful punter then traders, they number maybe as low as 0.01% compare to overall global gamblers.
Maybe Betdaq has accepted some conditions under the table and preferred leave things how they are..

[superfrank]

in the financial world you don't get exchanges competing in the same markets. e.g. the CME has the US indices and $ currency pairs, Eurex has the DAX and German bonds etc., and Liffe has the FTSE.

it doesn't make sense to for firms to compete in the same market as it obviously splits the liquidity, but they still compete in a way because the transaction costs for trading different, but correlated, markets differ. e.g. the DAX (Eurex) is far better value than the S&P500 (CME).

in sports it's different - it's a shame there's not a central independent exchange with different companies, BF, BD and others operating as brokers and getting fees from the exchange based on the liquidity they attract, and competing for business on the commission charged and service offered to punters and traders.

if the above was the case then i think the regulatory problems that BF suffer in many countries wouldn't be so bad, and that everybody, except BF maybe, would be better served.

[giulio2010]

in the financial world you don't get exchanges competing in the same markets. e.g. the CME has the US indices and $ currency pairs, Eurex has the DAX and German bonds etc., and Liffe has the FTSE.

it doesn't make sense to for firms to compete in the same market as it obviously splits the liquidity, but they still compete in a way because the transaction costs for trading different, but correlated, markets differ. e.g. the DAX (Eurex) is far better value than the S&P500 (CME).

in sports it's different - it's a shame there's not a central independent exchange with different companies, BF, BD and others operating as brokers and getting fees from the exchange based on the liquidity they attract, and competing for business on the commission charged and service offered to punters and traders.

if the above was the case then i think the regulatory problems that BF suffer in many countries wouldn't be so bad, and that everybody, except BF maybe, would be better served.

That is a very interesting explanation. Sometimes I thought about what you are suggesting in the last paragraph and I'm sure this approach would open the door to betfair and Betdaq globally without many licensing issues.
Maybe they should appoint people like you and some members of this forum in running Betfair and Betdaq.
O a number of us to create e central independant exchange.
I have been actually running a project with my mentor about this but it seems impossible to find investors at the moment..where traders and punters can became associate after a number of profits they gain on yearly basis..

[andyfuller]

The strange thing is how it was possible that a new product of its kind to have been founded in the same year by two different companies, one in London and one in Dublin?

Because it wasn't founded by either company!

To learn about why one succeeded and the other didn't here is some reading to help you get started:

Have a Google about flutter.com

Also this book maybe of interest, 2nd hand copies are pretty cheap:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/You-Bet-Betfair ... 115&sr=8-2

not only traders are in net profit, but also many professional punters and even their numbers may be greater then top traders..Let's not forget that successful punters have been around decades before successful sport traders so their number may be greater then we think. They finally find a site that don't kick them out but they have to pay 60% charges.

Most, but of course not all, successful punters will have a much higher Total Charges % than successful traders and as such very few are likely to be paying 60%. Many won't even be paying 20%.

[Euler]

Betdaq's model is actually as has been described. Betdaq is the English brand of a company called 'GBE' the global betting exchange.

Their model is to partner people in different territories to provide the end point for users while they run the exchange at the back end. Whereas Betfair is actually a consumer faced model.

Betdaq have a large part of the on course market because, as I understand it, Betfair couldn't reach a commercial agreement to license thier pricing to bookmakers.

[LeTiss]

Betdaq's model is actually as has been described. Betdaq is the English brand of a company called 'GBE' the global betting exchange.

Wasn't BetChronicle part of that company Peter?

I noticed their website closed on 31st October, which I found quite interesting

[Will Sharpe]

Noticed a company callled Matchbet are getting some news coverage. Anybody traded with them or now what kind of backing they have? The site looks kinda crappy but who knows....

http://www.matchbet.org

[Groovyelms]

This one will run and run, Betfair have a monopoly because they got in first, the exchange model to me seems a perfect business, the pc charge brought in to make more money....if as stated betdaq really had the muscle it would never have have come in, or be appied at the previously much lower rates. Monopoly means getting ripped off sadly... Intersting to note that betfair are now heavilly advertizing the trade out option.... so trading not quite dead yet

[freddy]

I think the advertising / creation of the cash out feature is actually a very smart move from betfair.

think it has and will bring in tons of new punters who never really understood the concept before.

I had someone for example in the pub the other night telling me all about this new gambling site and how it was so easy to make money using cash out feature ,

he looked quite suprised when i said that you have been able to do that for over 10 years .

this is really something the likes of betdaq should have been working on as it's the casual punters there not attracting, the traders will soon follow it they had.

[superfrank]

BD have made a poor fist of their supposed business model (i.e. a central exchange, GBE, as Euler pointed out) and then getting others to act as brokers.

i still think that a single, independent exchange with many companies as competing brokers would be the ideal.

could that happen now?

the only way i can that happening is if say the racing authorities agreed to licence only one exchange, with that proviso that is open to multiple brokers (who would be paid a cut of the exchange profits). unlikely.

or if BF decided to change their business model and made their exchange independent voluntarily. even more unlikely.

or if a new exchange appeared (probably in the US), with superior technology and terms, that was heavily marketed and blew the others out of the water by taking all the liquidity. unlikely too.