Hi
I am a novice to trading and I like to go with the trend. I know others like to go against it and wait for the reversal.
I read an article last night and it stated that only inexperienced traders go with the trend?
Is this correct or are there experienced traders here that do?
In the pre horse racing markets that is
Thanks
Trend Or Not?
Cheers,
I'm only into soccer, but what I do is to perceive the trend through game analysis. I identify at a given moment the team that is creating or is able to create the most dangerous opportunities, and then place a bet which remains as long as my assumption holds.
Don't know how it plays for horses, but maybe there are some similarities.
Regards,
Pedro
I'm only into soccer, but what I do is to perceive the trend through game analysis. I identify at a given moment the team that is creating or is able to create the most dangerous opportunities, and then place a bet which remains as long as my assumption holds.
Don't know how it plays for horses, but maybe there are some similarities.
Regards,
Pedro
True, but no-one knows for sure when this train will stop and reverse.James1st wrote: If you want to catch a train its best to run along the platform in the same direction the train is going. Stand in front of it and you will get run over.
Indeed, but surely the same can be said for the counter-trend...Euler wrote:The trend is your friend till the end
Aharris81 - There are two schools of thought re. trends, as illustrated by Euler and James's contrasting views. For what it's worth, I'd say you can profit by random entries in volatile markets, using the principle of cutting your losses and letting your profits run. You don't know in advance for sure which direction the market will go in or whether you'll end up with a small loss or a home run, so there's something to be send for just putting money in the market and seeing what happens. That sounds easy, but it's not. Admitting and accepting the unpredictability of the market is hard for most people.
Jeff
Peter,
Can you clarify something please?
When you talk about going counter-trend, do you mean joining the market when it is trending solely in one direction, in the hope that there may be a reversal? Or are you referring to going against the main trend, but with a new trend that has just emerged?
I'm just wondering whether what you do is completely counter-trend, or if there is an element of waiting for a new trend to develop before joining the market.
Jeff
Can you clarify something please?
When you talk about going counter-trend, do you mean joining the market when it is trending solely in one direction, in the hope that there may be a reversal? Or are you referring to going against the main trend, but with a new trend that has just emerged?
I'm just wondering whether what you do is completely counter-trend, or if there is an element of waiting for a new trend to develop before joining the market.
Jeff
It depends on which sport and market.
I have learned about spotting football trends 5 - 24 hours befor KO, which also applies to most other sports too, inc HR.
Strategies and tactics exist to help knowijg what to look for, where and then what action to take.
If the trend is strong i will go with it. Win most/lose some.
I have learned about spotting football trends 5 - 24 hours befor KO, which also applies to most other sports too, inc HR.
Strategies and tactics exist to help knowijg what to look for, where and then what action to take.
If the trend is strong i will go with it. Win most/lose some.
The real skill is knowing when a trend is about to end. I have no problem joining in on a trend if I think it has legs. There are lots of variables that will stop a trend in it's tracks and reverse it. Seeing the warning signs is where it gets harder.
Take a Soccer match - The pre race market is slow moving and has usually high liquidity. What are the variables that may change a trend? When are these variables likely to occur?
The form is well known in advance. The Bookmakers price up the vents well in advance, there is little error in their pricing nowadays. So what influences the price? These are the questions that you need to ask.
Racing is a different story - As there is much more information unknown. Some people are privy to it and some not. I am sure some price movements happen purely because of traders watch graphs because they are wannabe City traders and react to this. Universal statements you hear now like "You should Lay when a price reaches the bottom of the range" Why? Doesn't that depend on what the rest of the market is doing? Sure you can catch some good reversals trading this way. Prices bouncing up and down between resistance points with narrow trading ranges in stable markets is good practice. But it isn't cast in stone. You hear me say this often. "There is no one size fits all". Each market is unique. Doing the same thing over and over and trying to make it fit isn't good practice. Thats not to say there are not pattens that are recognisable. The cornerstone of my trading is pattern recognition. I have seen situation X and Y before an Z happened. The issue with this is there is R,S,T,U,V,W Y and Y to spot before Z happens
Apologies for my posts this week - I have caught Ramble syndrome, it's related to talksbollox syndrome.
Take a Soccer match - The pre race market is slow moving and has usually high liquidity. What are the variables that may change a trend? When are these variables likely to occur?
The form is well known in advance. The Bookmakers price up the vents well in advance, there is little error in their pricing nowadays. So what influences the price? These are the questions that you need to ask.
Racing is a different story - As there is much more information unknown. Some people are privy to it and some not. I am sure some price movements happen purely because of traders watch graphs because they are wannabe City traders and react to this. Universal statements you hear now like "You should Lay when a price reaches the bottom of the range" Why? Doesn't that depend on what the rest of the market is doing? Sure you can catch some good reversals trading this way. Prices bouncing up and down between resistance points with narrow trading ranges in stable markets is good practice. But it isn't cast in stone. You hear me say this often. "There is no one size fits all". Each market is unique. Doing the same thing over and over and trying to make it fit isn't good practice. Thats not to say there are not pattens that are recognisable. The cornerstone of my trading is pattern recognition. I have seen situation X and Y before an Z happened. The issue with this is there is R,S,T,U,V,W Y and Y to spot before Z happens
Apologies for my posts this week - I have caught Ramble syndrome, it's related to talksbollox syndrome.
I'm currently just working just on trends in-play.aharris81 wrote:Ok thanks guys, does anyone here go with the trend full time ?
The question for me is, how long does a 'trend' have to run before I should class it is substantial rather than just freak.
Darren Brown filmed a 'trick'where he flipped a coin and got 10 heads in a row. He just sat down for the whole day and flipped the coin until that combination came up. But that wasn't a trend, that was just picking one sequence out of thousands that produced a result that looked amazing.
When I modify my trading formula, my system bets on different horses with different values. I can show some permutations that work fantastically for 30-40 days, but then trail off. My failing is that I concistently chase a trend, only to find I've caught it at the apex. I believe that some permutations of my formula will provide longer term consistent results (which is why I carry on), although I appreciate that smarter people than me will tell me that I'm wasting my time.
Ian