Betfair starting prices
I have collected things data for many years. In Tennis though the high and low is just one component of a much larger process.
If you use Tennis trader, at the start of a game, that accurately reflects all outcomes, which is the real detail you need if you are going to trade Tennis effectively.
If you use Tennis trader, at the start of a game, that accurately reflects all outcomes, which is the real detail you need if you are going to trade Tennis effectively.
Thanks both. I've only just started to look at tennis trading and with limited historical BF data, I was going start by looking at the relationship between players starting price & the trading ranges. So for example, I was going to start by exploring matches at 2.0 (based on them potentially being the most competitive) to see how their price moved in play.
Peter, I know tennis trader can predict points going forward in a match, but can you use it to look at matches in the past? So for example if I knew that a match several weeks ago started at 1.7, could I see what price the player would have moved to (in theory) when they were 2-0 sets down?
Peter, I know tennis trader can predict points going forward in a match, but can you use it to look at matches in the past? So for example if I knew that a match several weeks ago started at 1.7, could I see what price the player would have moved to (in theory) when they were 2-0 sets down?
The average traded ranges are quite stable in Tennis. The widest trading range, unsurprisingly, tend to occur in the most competitive matches. So if you look for matches starting near 2's they tend to present the best opportunities historically.
Thanks Peter. I was playing around last week with the game matrix & set menu - really nice addition.
I was wondering whether tennis trader takes in additional information from the API when it predicts the odds movement. i.e. Does it take the players sex & court surface into account?
I was wondering whether tennis trader takes in additional information from the API when it predicts the odds movement. i.e. Does it take the players sex & court surface into account?
Just as a wee related point but any strategy based on tennis starting prices will fail, in my opinion.
The exchanges are a little better than the bookies it's not enough to overcome this reality.
The only way tennis is profitable long-term is if you trade movements in play. That's where I would spend time building your expertise...
good luck!
The exchanges are a little better than the bookies it's not enough to overcome this reality.
The only way tennis is profitable long-term is if you trade movements in play. That's where I would spend time building your expertise...
good luck!
With pre-match betting it’s vital to realise that it’s very possible (as it is with trading although with trading it depends on your attitude to risk) to have bad runs of variance but as long as the selections have a mathematical and logical edge then any bad run will come to an end. What is important to know is that a tipster cannot be proven to have a winning edge until they have around 700-1000 matches in their portfolio. This is generally about the sort of level of sample you need to have a z score of over 2 (which would mean that the tips success would be <2.27% luck). If you’re interested in this you can read more at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_score.
With pre-match betting on tennis, an excellent return on investment would be anything over 3%. I don’t know many pre-match gamblers that can boast of a return on investment over 5% when a statistically significant sample size is considered. There are many sharp tennis brains at tennisinsight.com and there’s only one tipper, to my knowledge, that has an ROI over 5% over a high level of turnover.
However, whilst 3% ROI does not sound anything particularly exciting, if you re-invested your winnings daily making 3% on average per day, you will be able to build your bankroll pretty quickly. I would recommend investing no bigger than 5% of your bankroll on an individual bet pre-match.
I also agree with Kelpie, you have to find an edge in play to make some serious dough. I'm running through todays matches now and I'll post some of my potential entry points for any interested newbies in the US Open thread later on before the matches start.
Just remember I've only been trading the tennis full time since February 2013 and I'm still learning as well. So if you follow me in don't be to harsh if we end up with a big red.
With pre-match betting on tennis, an excellent return on investment would be anything over 3%. I don’t know many pre-match gamblers that can boast of a return on investment over 5% when a statistically significant sample size is considered. There are many sharp tennis brains at tennisinsight.com and there’s only one tipper, to my knowledge, that has an ROI over 5% over a high level of turnover.
However, whilst 3% ROI does not sound anything particularly exciting, if you re-invested your winnings daily making 3% on average per day, you will be able to build your bankroll pretty quickly. I would recommend investing no bigger than 5% of your bankroll on an individual bet pre-match.
I also agree with Kelpie, you have to find an edge in play to make some serious dough. I'm running through todays matches now and I'll post some of my potential entry points for any interested newbies in the US Open thread later on before the matches start.
Just remember I've only been trading the tennis full time since February 2013 and I'm still learning as well. So if you follow me in don't be to harsh if we end up with a big red.
kelpie wrote:Just as a wee related point but any strategy based on tennis starting prices will fail, in my opinion.
The exchanges are a little better than the bookies it's not enough to overcome this reality.
The only way tennis is profitable long-term is if you trade movements in play. That's where I would spend time building your expertise...
good luck!
I think he was really asking what are the best to trade based on starting price, that's how I read it.
When I learnt to model Tennis I realised that different players and sexes throw off different characteristics. But when forecasting you are really distilling that information to a simple stat. On this occasion we distill it to the chance of winning on serve. So different players, surface types and sexes are more or less likely to have a different start point and characteristic during the game. Tennis trader can account for this by seeding from a different start point, or you nominate that start point.stevequal wrote:Thanks Peter. I was playing around last week with the game matrix & set menu - really nice addition.
I was wondering whether tennis trader takes in additional information from the API when it predicts the odds movement. i.e. Does it take the players sex & court surface into account?
Where it gets tricky is that this percentage varies throughout the match so when that happens Tennis trader starts to drift a little. But you can reset it at that point by recalibrating. It is possible to get more and more accurate, but that then requires an extraordinary amount of work, which most people don't want to do or can't do quickly enough during a match.
It's just a question of how far down the rabbit hole do you want to go!
Thanks Redhead & Kelpie,
I wasn't necessarily intending on straight out pre-match betting. My idea was this: I was going to find a set of 100 matches where the odds started at 2 pre-match and was going to look to see where the odds drifted to in-play. So lets say in 50% of those matches the winner drifted to 4's then there is a simple strategy straight away.
Now, I know it's unlikely to be that simple, but I just wanted to see if there was something in it. You never know I might find that ATP hard court matches in the last 16 of a tournament may just behave like that.
I am starting to record my own data, so that will help me.
Steve.
I wasn't necessarily intending on straight out pre-match betting. My idea was this: I was going to find a set of 100 matches where the odds started at 2 pre-match and was going to look to see where the odds drifted to in-play. So lets say in 50% of those matches the winner drifted to 4's then there is a simple strategy straight away.
Now, I know it's unlikely to be that simple, but I just wanted to see if there was something in it. You never know I might find that ATP hard court matches in the last 16 of a tournament may just behave like that.
I am starting to record my own data, so that will help me.
Steve.
If you are used to trading horses you will find your strike rate is much higher on Tennis that you expect. You find yourself in more situations where it's possible to trade out for a profit than you think. Mainly thank's to the odd scoring system and potentially infinite length of Tennis.
Peter, I saw your video on the new calibration tool, I am not quite at that level of expertise yet.
I just wondered if I was using tennis trader to look at how the odds could unfold before a match begins lets say in a 3 set match on clay, would it show the same odds for the mens & womens game. If someone broke serve in a womens match, then I wouldn't expect the odds to move as sharply as it would in a mens game, where the break of serve is often considered more pivotal.
Also, if the first set score was 7-6 rather than 6-0, I would imagine the odds to be very different at the start of the next game.
Or it is the difference really minimal and I just need to chill out?
I just wondered if I was using tennis trader to look at how the odds could unfold before a match begins lets say in a 3 set match on clay, would it show the same odds for the mens & womens game. If someone broke serve in a womens match, then I wouldn't expect the odds to move as sharply as it would in a mens game, where the break of serve is often considered more pivotal.
Also, if the first set score was 7-6 rather than 6-0, I would imagine the odds to be very different at the start of the next game.
Or it is the difference really minimal and I just need to chill out?