I would say the difference between trading and gambling is that trading is short term where as gambling is looking longer term.
Gambling you rely on everyone else taking an opinion in the market but trading you have to have to have your next 2 or 3 positions in the market so that whichever way the market moves you can profit?
I know swing traders will disagree with that as they will argue that if a horse sweats etc.... but my view on trading is you should be able to have positions in a market at any time and either side of the money to be able to react to take advantage whichever way the market moves. .
And the difference between Gambling and Trading is...
Of course I have, but I must be missing something obvious, as I don't see the relevance of that question.steven1976 wrote:So you have never seen a horse race go from 2 to 1.8 inplay?
We are talking about manipulation here, not someone placing a big bet in-play because a horse suddenly kicks into action.
...which is why I wrote 'You may fool the market'.steven1976 wrote:Obviously there are many things to consider but to say it is impossible is not right.
I'm not saying it can't be done - I'm just very skeptical.
I don't know - that's an interesting question.steven1976 wrote:If its an hour from the start how many people do you think are sat at their screens?
Many, but the bomber wasn't a manipulator - he was an outright backer.steven1976 wrote:How many ticks did it use to move when the bomber was around?
Jeff
IMHO they are exactly the same... If you are hoping or planning on something happening for gain its plain and simple its a gamble. Now you can answer by saying but I am predicting a movement... well isnt that the same as a gambler predicting that 'nagsarse' will win the 2.30 at 'nohope' races.
Another thing is if you walk in your local boozer and say you are a trader you get a different response to if you say you are a gambler. Same scenario walk in your pub and say you are a trader on sports and again by the time you have finished explaining what you do your mates will still thing you are gambling.
Now I would much prefer to class myself as a trader than a gambler but I think until I start consistantly earning money before a race starts I am an out and out gambler IMHO
Another thing is if you walk in your local boozer and say you are a trader you get a different response to if you say you are a gambler. Same scenario walk in your pub and say you are a trader on sports and again by the time you have finished explaining what you do your mates will still thing you are gambling.
Now I would much prefer to class myself as a trader than a gambler but I think until I start consistantly earning money before a race starts I am an out and out gambler IMHO
The Bomber thats a good name probably just some multi millionaire having some fun, i wonder if he knows he's called that?
I can't see a way for someone to push the market loads of ticks and make a profit from it, you have to get money matched to do that and not everyone will panic and stop out as some of the money will be from betters.
You can spook the market and hope others join in and push the market up or down and make a profit that way.
I can't see a way for someone to push the market loads of ticks and make a profit from it, you have to get money matched to do that and not everyone will panic and stop out as some of the money will be from betters.
You can spook the market and hope others join in and push the market up or down and make a profit that way.
You can try, but it's a risky strategy.
You might get another manipulator accepting your order, forcing you to bail out for a loss (which may push the market further in their favour).
Jeff
You might get another manipulator accepting your order, forcing you to bail out for a loss (which may push the market further in their favour).
Jeff
marko236 wrote: You can spook the market and hope others join in and push the market up or down and make a profit that way.
My goodness Jeff, you are naïveFerru123 wrote: Although I don't doubt you felt that to be the case when you were spoofing, I suspect you are being fooled by randomness.
Jeff
I assure you I was not being fooled, tests showed I was able to engineer 18-tick moves. I spooked the market by suddenly slamming in big bets, and this caused a lot of lemmings to join the trend, people to panic and stop-out, and possibly bots blindly joining in as well.I don't advocate this sort of thing mind you, I'm just pointing out the sorts of things that go on.
If you are sceptical I can prove it Jeff, perhaps later in the year when I return to trading (I haven't been trading much recently). I will state on the forum (a) the selection (b) the size of the spike I'm going to engineer and (c) the exact time I'm going to do it. You will see it move exactly as I say. That might be crossing the line of forum rules, so I won't do it more than once, I might do it as a one-off just to show you how easily it can be done?
Unless you want to fall foul of Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, you might want to just use a Private Message rather than a public post on here.Zenyatta wrote:I will state on the forum (a) the selection (b) the size of the spike I'm going to engineer
On the other hand, I spend hours and hours analyzing and implementing work-arounds to cater for odd spikes (rather than trends) that cause my automated systems to trade, when they should do the electronic equivalent of sit back, light a cigarette and wait for a minute. So, do me a favour, if you're going to manufacture some spikes, let me know in advance as well.
One of us is...Zenyatta wrote: My goodness Jeff, you are naïve
Perhaps it's not the person who thinks it's possible to get a market to retreat 18 ticks by going 'Boo!' and putting in a few large orders.
There are tests that claim to show homeopathy works. Forgive me if I'm not convinced.Zenyatta wrote:I assure you I was not being fooled, tests showed I was able to engineer 18-tick moves.
You can't announce to the Betfair trading community exactly when you're going to spoof them and expect it to be a fair test!Zenyatta wrote:If you are sceptical I can prove it Jeff, perhaps later in the year when I return to trading (I haven't been trading much recently). I will state on the forum (a) the selection (b) the size of the spike I'm going to engineer and (c) the exact time I'm going to do it.
That's like something out of Monty Python! "I am going to spoof you in the 15:15 at Kempton tomorrow, exactly three minutes before it starts. I want to see if my large order causes you to retreat in fear."
Why not simply record a video of yourself spoofing the market, and stick it on YouTube? If you manage to cause the market to retreat 18 ticks, I will eat humble pie, but I don't think that's likely to happen...
Jeff
Exactly!
The market exhibits moves like that all the time. The human mind is very good at playing tricks with us, and causing us to see patterns within randomness. I suspect that Zenyatta is being fooled by confirmation bias.
Jeff
The market exhibits moves like that all the time. The human mind is very good at playing tricks with us, and causing us to see patterns within randomness. I suspect that Zenyatta is being fooled by confirmation bias.
Jeff
kroni wrote:how could you possibly know you have engineered an 18 tick move and the market wouldn't have got there on its own eventually.
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tweebie1999
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I try to explain to people at our local pub about trading sports odds. As soon as you mention the word sport they mention the word gambling. A friend of mine buy and sells shares. When he is talking nobody talks about gambling, they use the word trading. Yet look what happened to some bank shares in 2008.
To me it doesn't really matter.I quite like people thinking I am a gambler. It creates a bit of mystery. After all everyone is interested in winning money.
To me it doesn't really matter.I quite like people thinking I am a gambler. It creates a bit of mystery. After all everyone is interested in winning money.
Crikey Lads! Im sure Jeff and Zenyatta were married in a previous life!Ferru123 wrote:One of us is...Zenyatta wrote: My goodness Jeff, you are naïve
Perhaps it's not the person who thinks it's possible to get a market to retreat 18 ticks by going 'Boo!' and putting in a few large orders.
can support offer any form of counselling!
I'm pretty sure I wasn't gay in a previous life, so unless Zenyatta was female...
No counselling needed Peter - it's all very good natured (at least at my end - I can't speak for Zenyatta), and I'm enjoying this exchange.
Jeff
No counselling needed Peter - it's all very good natured (at least at my end - I can't speak for Zenyatta), and I'm enjoying this exchange.
Jeff
PeterLe wrote: Crikey Lads! Im sure Jeff and Zenyatta were married in a previous life!
can support offer any form of counselling!
Carry on mate only Joking!Ferru123 wrote:I'm pretty sure I wasn't gay in a previous life, so unless Zenyatta was female...
No counselling needed Peter - it's all very good natured (at least at my end - I can't speak for Zenyatta), and I'm enjoying this exchange.
JeffPeterLe wrote: Crikey Lads! Im sure Jeff and Zenyatta were married in a previous life!
can support offer any form of counselling!
If the market would have got there on its own, you will see the sudden big spike and the price won't come back.kroni wrote:how could you possibly know you have engineered an 18 tick move and the market wouldn't have got there on its own eventually.
If, on the other hand, my engineered spike has got the direction wrong, what you will see is the price moving a huge amount and then suddenly 'snapping back' the other way at a certain arbitrary point.