Is it possible to determine a "fair" price for one market option when you know the others?
For example, with a football market, using the Home and Away odds, is it possible to determine a "fair" price for the Draw?
Determining match odds
The draw is actually the easiest thing to price IMHO. If you have a tight game where few goals are expected the chance of a draw rises but if there a likely to be many goals the chance of a draw declines.
If you have a match forecast to produce two goals then the draw is at it's most likely. Especially where the stronger team is the away team. But if you have a match where three goals is likely a draws is much less certain because three goals can't be divided equally.
If you have a match forecast to produce two goals then the draw is at it's most likely. Especially where the stronger team is the away team. But if you have a match where three goals is likely a draws is much less certain because three goals can't be divided equally.