Amazing drift on NO
I must admit I had a sneaky feeling the Nationalists would stir up the emotional vote
Scottish Independence Vote
Well...... at 1.19 cant do a lot of damage 
I wouldn't place too much reliance on a single poll especially when other polls show no discernible change in sentiment.
None of the polls can ever be reliable in these circumstances where there is no precedent governing the biases eg women, age etc.
Is there a logic reason for the drift from 1.25 to 1.5? Not a lot if you ask me.
Scottish women will decide the outcome of the Scottish independence vote.
None of the polls can ever be reliable in these circumstances where there is no precedent governing the biases eg women, age etc.
Is there a logic reason for the drift from 1.25 to 1.5? Not a lot if you ask me.
Scottish women will decide the outcome of the Scottish independence vote.
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
getting interesting now. 'still think No will prevail comfortably but you never know (and personally I hope they get their bl00dy independence and prove once again to the economically illiterate that tax and spend is the road to ruin). 'loathe "professional scots", you know the ones that turn up to every formal event in a skirt.
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
this thing is quickly descending into a farce.
they're now trying to bribe the Scots with more money + spending powers (that rUK would have to pay for + underwrite).
the one good thing about all this is that it illustrates cleary what a bunch of short-sighted clowns our politicians are.
really hoping for a Yes vote now followed by Cameron's resignation.
they're now trying to bribe the Scots with more money + spending powers (that rUK would have to pay for + underwrite).
the one good thing about all this is that it illustrates cleary what a bunch of short-sighted clowns our politicians are.
really hoping for a Yes vote now followed by Cameron's resignation.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
England fans were clear where their vote would go http://youtu.be/dTYuCvuQmrw
I hope the Scots go on their own, the English don't want to be with the Scots and vice versa. It sounds like a good idea for the Scots in the short-term, but in the long-term it will be a disaster. The biggest problem obviously has to be the currency, they can't take the pound or the Euro, so they will need to use a brand new currency. Good luck to 'em I say, they'll need it!
Brokers are dishing out trading advice
With further ground being lost by the ‘no’ to independence effort, markets are feeling fragile as uncertainty begins to rock the otherwise quiet financial markets.
The global financial markets have felt relatively stable given that it feels like we are almost in World War III.. with all the unrest around the world. However the resilience to reflective volatility may be short lived, with traders looking closer to home for trading opportunities.
The British Pound has already shown signs of weakness, but many still believe that the ‘yes’ vote to Scottish independence is a long shot, and therefore the full effect of independence is yet to be priced into the value of sterling; and if independence precipitates following the referendum, sterling (the British variety that is) is likely to commence its real decent, possibly in dramatic fashion.
Sunday’s YouGov poll showed, for the first time, a lead for Mr Salmond’s campaign; and should this lead continue through to the 18th September 2014, some traders believe sterling could reach levels of 1.15 GBP/EUR (0.87 EUR/GBP) from current levels of 1.25 (0.80).
Against the US Dollar, sterling has already dropped significantly from a month ago when it was trading at 1.70 GBP/USD to recent lows of 1.61; however technical indicators suggest that this currency pair could fall further with targets around the also psychological level of 1.50.
The effect of Scotland adopting their own currency poses a risk for British companies operating in Scotland and indeed any overseas companies operating in Scotland. Unfortunately the effect is unknown, and therefore the effect is not quantifiable at this point. This uncertainty is often the catalyst for volatility, which most professional traders thrive on..
You may be asking, why do professional traders like volatile markets, when they could be on the wrong side of a violent move and therefore lose a lot of money. Well, professional traders are more likely to ‘jump on a move’, in other words trade with the trend. This is a difficult thing to do, psychologically; imagine the psychological conundrum of the FTSE 100 index, for example, opening 100 points lower following a ‘yes’ vote on the Scottish referendum and then shorting the market; a difficult thing to do when the market was 100 points higher at the previous night’s close. However the professional trader may not look at the previous day and just look at the fact that the market is weak and therefore prone to a further fall. Conversely, more retail clients will generally short the market if it rallies significantly and go long following a sharp fall; which is fine in the current ranging markets, but in more volatile markets where the market breaks up and down, such conditions create obvious challenges for the range traders.
So as we countdown to September 18th, uncertainty will grow as the final votes could swing either way. Opportunities should be prevalent, particularly in the sterling currency pairs.
Then the verdict itself will hopefully stimulate market moves, whether it is sterling strength on the relief factor of a ‘no’ vote, or speculation on the effects of a ‘yes’ vote on Scottish companies, or companies operating in Scotland.
Either way, speculators and investors alike will be positioning themselves in anticipation of or reaction to the referendum results.