Betfair Trading US Masters Golf

I love Betfair trading the US Masters. It’s the only major played on the same course each year.

This means you can collect many stats on how the course plays and form your strategies. That gives me a good guide for trading in and out of a position.

You can do this on most courses, but because the Masters is at the exact location every year, it is much more predictable. You also benefit from the fact that it’s the highest turnover Golf Major of the year.

High Liquidity

I prefer US majors, to be honest, as the start times are much more UK-friendly.

The Masters routinely has more matched bet volume than other tournaments and sometimes similar amounts to the British Open. Based on prior years, I’m expecting volume to be in the £8m range. In 2012, it was just £4m for some reason, but that seems to be anomalous, and the average has been around £7m at first tee.

Interestingly, the volume has a double peak before the off at the Masters. The night before the tournament, volume increases steadily till around 10 pm UK time, before dwindling to tiny amounts in the early hours. The following day, the action starts to pick up at 6 am and builds steadily to peak for a second time just before the first tee-off time.

So, if you are looking to take a position, those are the best times. Prices tend to be pretty static.

How the course plays

If you are a golf player, when you step up to the first tee, you will already know the hardest and easiest holes, thanks to the stroke index. When trading, understanding the hardest holes isn’t sufficient; you need to know what impact each hole will likely have on the score. Augusta gives us this chance.

Laying shorter-priced players ahead of a trickier part of the course or backing bigger prices approaching easier holes can be a good strategy. The order of play can influence this. If one player has just passed through a trickier section without dropping a shot and is followed by a rival, a lay is a good bet on the chasing player. Any dropped shot or the potential for one will send their price out.

The 11th is the most likely hole to drop a shot on, but variance to par, one of my main metrics, means that dropped shots are quite likely to occur in bunches. The most expensive three holes on the course are holes 10-12, where on average, there is a nearly 28% chance of dropping a shot.

Players tend to pick up shots on the par fives, so holes 13-15 are where players are more likely to do that. There is an average 40% chance you will pick up a shot on these holes. Players are most likely to eagle the 13th, but two holes later is another chance. The last three holes are testing, and dropped shots are possible here.

In the graph below, you can see we have clustered the holes into groups of three and used some math to highlight the chance of dropping a shot at any of those three. Holes 10-12 show the highest chance of dropping a shot, and 13-15 the lowest.

Chasing the leader

In one in seven tournaments, the first-day leader sees out the whole tournament. But that doesn’t sound as bad if you say the opposite, which is that 86% of the time, they won’t. But, of course, some of this is down to how much they lead by in each round.

90% of eventual winners are at least five shots behind the leader after day one. This is similar on day two but weighted towards the top of that group. At the end of day three, if you are within three of the lead, that’s where 86% of the eventual winners come from. Only four of 80 winners I looked at were six shots or more behind on the final day.

Rory McIlroy

One consistent aspect of this tournament is Rory McIlroy’s going off as the favourite or very near it each year. He still has yet to win the only Major that eludes him. His playing style suits the course, but then it always has!

In 2014, Rory McIlroy was sent off as the favourite at 11.5 but had slipped to 110.0 by the cut. Eventual winner and former green jacket holder Bubba Watson was three shots in the lead and trading at only 3.0 by the cut. McIlroy went from 36.0 to 7.0 in 2011 before losing and just 3.55 from an SP of 8.0 in 2012. In 2013, he was sent off at 15.5 and reached 6.2.

Rory’s inability to win at Augusta has become a burden. It would be nice to see him win.

The ‘Perfect Trade’

There is no such thing as a perfect trade, but in 2016, we came close. Spieth opened the final day three under for the tournament and had a good front nine. That left him seven under on the turn. Holes 10-12 are likely to see a dropped shot, so the focus was on whether he could avoid that.

Danny Willett was already through the same section and had a fine round. So far, he had moved from par for the tournament at the open to two under after finishing at hole 12. Holes 13 to 15 presented opportunities to pick up shots and close in on the leader.

Spieth traded at 1.09 for the tournament but dropped a shot at the 10 and 11. Nerves kicked in on 12, where he ended up in the water twice and then the bunker for a seven on the tricky par three. Suddenly, Willett was in the lead just had to try and not drop a shot or two on the final three. With confidence high, he gained one.

It took just 33 minutes for Spieth to go from 1.09 to losing by three shots. That’s golf for you!

General Advice

Some of how the Golf plays out depends on the weather, which we don’t know yet.

If it’s consistent, stick with the leaders later in the tournament. If it’s not, start laying them.

A few shots lead will get more valuable with each hole played. It’s best to stick with opposing players who have a slender lead to lose on a more challenging part of the course. Always bear in mind the tougher and easier holes, and you will put yourself in a good position to trade out for a profit.

An alternative way to trade is to take advantage of market movers. It’s tricky to pick off one or two selections. So use Bet Angel’s dutching tool to capture value on many of them. You will only need one or two of those to have a good round for their price to shorten dramatically and put you into profit.

This tends to make sense on the first and second days, but you will find opportunities when you focus on the leaders in the final two days.

Good luck!