Does the frequency that a Back offer changes on new volume over a predetermined time period have any predictive value? Surely a random event? At first glance yes, but there is a higher power at work, just like the Fibonacci Spiral, just like the percentage the favourite wins, it never changes, no matter what you throw at it!
All this comes about by the collective actions of many bettors "the Public". One of the most successful betting gurus, Australian David Walsh, when asked what his edge was, said," Public odds must be included in your model. The best models are not predictive, but ‘pertubation’ models that start with the assumption that the public is right and then work out what small errors they might make." The definition of Pertubation: a deviation of a system, moving object, or process from its regular or normal state or path, caused by an outside influence.
I have discovered over 100's of thousands of price changes that a ratio exists between number of price changes as a variable together with average price of all those price changes on new volume for placegetters as opposed non-placegetters? A bit like 30:70 favourites win and non favourites lose. Trouble is you can't make any money as the commission cruels it. That's because all the mathematical models are focused on such relationships. Look for over and underlays outside the realms of just price, and include frequency of price changes on new volume?
Pertubation?
Post Reply
2 posts
• Page 1 of 1
Post Reply
2 posts
• Page 1 of 1
Jump to
- Bet Angel Professional - Betfair trading software
- ↳ Bet Angel - Release & version history
- ↳ Announcements
- ↳ Bet Angel - FAQ's
- ↳ Bet Angel for newbies / Getting started
- ↳ Bet Angel - Tips and tricks
- ↳ Bet Angel - Spreadsheet / Excel chat
- ↳ Bet Angel - Example spreadsheets
- ↳ Horse racing
- ↳ Trade analysis & record keeping
- ↳ Tips and tricks
- ↳ Excel Power Query
- ↳ Bet Angel - Automation
- ↳ Bet Angel - Total Performance Data - FAQ's
- ↳ Bet Angel Automation - Shared files
- ↳ Bet Angel Automation - Football
- ↳ Bet Angel Automation - Tennis
- ↳ Bet Angel Automation - Horse racing - In-running
- ↳ Bet Angel Automation - Horse racing - Pre off
- ↳ Bet Angel Automation - General
- ↳ Bet Angel - API
- ↳ Bet Angel Automation - Betfair trading alerts
- ↳ Tennis trading alerts
- ↳ Bet Angel - Servants
- ↳ Bet Angel - Servants - Shared files
- ↳ Bet Angel - Customisation, settings, filters and coupons.
- ↳ Market selection filters
- ↳ Market coupons
- ↳ One Click trading interface
- ↳ Ladder trading interface
- ↳ Advanced charting
- ↳ In-play trader tool
- ↳ Guardian market list layouts
- ↳ TPD / Total Performance Data
- ↳ Suggestions
- ↳ Betfair trading videos - For current videos visit www.betangel.tv
- ↳ Support
- Betfair trading & Sports Betting strategies
- ↳ General discussion
- ↳ Australian
- ↳ Deutsche
- ↳ Español
- ↳ Italiano
- ↳ русский
- ↳ Trading Horse racing
- ↳ Football trading
- ↳ Trading Financial markets
- ↳ Cryptocurrency
- ↳ Tennis Trading
- ↳ Trading Psychology
- ↳ Other Betfair Sports Trading markets
- ↳ Trading Golf
- ↳ Rugby
- ↳ Boxing
- ↳ Non Sports trading Markets
- ↳ Political betting & arguing
- ↳ Technology
- ↳ Betfair Cricket trading
- ↳ Betfair trading strategies
- ↳ Sports betting strategies
- ↳ Loss recovery systems and methods
- ↳ Trading Greyhound racing
- Betting exchange & Bookmakers reviews and advice
- ↳ Chill Out Area
- ↳ Betfair exchange
- ↳ Betfair Data
- ↳ Betfair Exchange API
- ↳ Betdaq exchange
- ↳ Alternative betting exchanges, Smarkets, Matchbook etc.
- ↳ Bookmaker & Sportsbooks
-
- Bet Angel Quicklinks