Where Am I Specifically Going Wrong With This Please?

[Kai]

This is the penny testing phase after all, you can go around and trade matches randomly. You will get more benefit from that than by watching random Youtube videos from system sellers.

You can obsess all you want about perfect exits and maximum profits but no trader can regularly take the perfect exit and extract the maximum profit from each trade because it's impossible, you will have to be satisfied with optimal exits and optimal profit, the priority is to protect your trade and your bank first and foremost. Leave the greed to the gamblers.

[JustLukeYou]

I see!

Starting to see how trading is a massive change in mentalities.

Is there a way to find value in the Under/Over goal markets. For example, I watch one Paulo Rebelo video where he says he tries to research the manager. If the manager constantly pushes for goals and win 5-0 or shut up shop and win 2-0.
.

[JustLukeYou]

Also currently I am trading U/O 3.5 goals in the Napoli match. I looked at the recent results of Napoli at home and Verona away and they are typically 1 to 2 goals so I saw value in U/O 3.5 goals.

One thing though the odds for under 4 goals are 1.11 on Smarkets but on BetFair they are 1.2. That is around 90% difference, does that happen much with these types of markets?

[Kai]

I already gave you a strategy to play around with, worst thing that can happen is you actually learn something about those markets. Don't push your luck

If you think that you're a soccer mystic yourself then go and find 0-0 games at HT and wait for the 2nd half to open up, then lay either u1.5 or u2.5 if you think it's any value. For example if you see prices as low as 1.20 but you're "convinced" and "know" that goals are coming then just start laying, simple as that. If no goals come then you're not a soccer mystic. And if a goal comes then try to figure out what to do next.

[JustLukeYou]

I already gave you a strategy to play around with, worst thing that can happen is you actually learn something about those markets. Don't push your luck

If you think that you're a soccer mystic yourself then go and find 0-0 games at HT and wait for the 2nd half to open up, then lay either u1.5 or u2.5 if you think it's any value. For example if you see prices as low as 1.20 but you're "convinced" and "know" that goals are coming then just start laying, simple as that. If no goals come then you're not a soccer mystic. And if they do then try to figure out what to do next.

But I am confused as that approach doesn't involve watching the match and is very different to how Paulo Rebelo operates. In one video he says he watches the matches of teams even on repeat so he understand how certain teams operate.

[Kai]

You need to take baby steps, won't become Rebelo overnight. There are many ways to trade, you already know this.

Use your head, if you're looking at 0-0 at HT then only start watching the 2nd half. Use something like Sofascore momentum graph or xG from Infogol to get a better idea on how the first half went.

[JustLukeYou]

You need to take baby steps, won't become Rebelo overnight. There are many ways to trade, you already know this.

Use your head, if you're looking at 0-0 at HT then only start watching the 2nd half. Use something like Sofascore momentum graph or xG from Infogol to get a better idea on how the first half went.

With U/O. Let's say it is 0-0 at half time and over 2.5 goals 3. So you lay 3 doesn't that mean that if one goal is scored early on in the half you can lose a lot of your stake?

[Kai]

Yes, that is why I specifically said to lay unders and not overs.

[JustLukeYou]

Yes, that is why I specifically said to lay unders and not overs.

So you lay the under 2.5?

[Kai]

Yes, that is why I specifically said to lay unders and not overs.

So you lay the under 2.5?

Yes, like in this random example.

[ShaunWhite]

I noticed that Paulo Rebelo trades a lot of Under/Over but I rarely see any value in them.

ONE...LAST ....TRY....
Traders make money from price movement and nothing else. The 'value' everyone talks about is in the difference between the entry and exit price. All you seem to talk about is the entry price which on it's own is irrelevant and shows you still haven't got it yet. Only a backer is obsessed with entry price, and if a trader says they see the entry as value, it's because it's value against the potential exit price.

Example:
Let's say the price on under 2.5 now is 3.0.
You know from understanding price decay what the price will be in 20mins, if there are no more goals.
You know from understanding price decay what the price will be in 20mins, if there are more goals.

What you do, is make a judgement about how likely those goals are, and whether that risk/reward ratio is appealing.

If you stand to win £10 or lose £2 then you're effectively taking 5/1.
If you stand to win £10 or lose £5 then you're effectively taking 2/1.

I really can't explain it in a more simple way. Unless you understand this then I promise you that nothing anyone says or does will ever make sense to you. This is what people like Paul Rebelo and every other trader is doing in their head, "how will the market move if this or that happens, do I think that risk/reward is overpriced or underpriced". That is trading. They might not say that because they assume anyone watching already understands how traders make money. It's not Rebelo's job to teach you the baby steps and it's why what he's saying makes no sense to you.

I know you won't even take 2 minutes to try and understand this, just like all the other times it's been explained, but perhaps other new people will find it useful.

[JustLukeYou]

Yes, that is why I specifically said to lay unders and not overs.

So you lay the under 2.5?

Yes, like in this random example.

I see so it does finish 0-0 you lose £25. If there is an early goal and it finishes 1-0 is it still possible to make a profit?

[JustLukeYou]

I noticed that Paulo Rebelo trades a lot of Under/Over but I rarely see any value in them.

ONE...LAST ....TRY....
Traders make money from price movement and nothing else. The 'value' everyone talks about is in the difference between the entry and exit price. All you seem to talk about is the entry price which on it's own is irrelevant and shows you still haven't got it yet. Only a backer is obsessed with entry price, and if a trader says they see the entry as value, it's because it's value against the potential exit price.

Example:
Let's say the price on under 2.5 now is 3.0.
You know from understanding price decay what the price will be in 20mins, if there are no more goals.
You know from understanding price decay what the price will be in 20mins, if there are more goals.

What you do, is make a judgement about how likely those goals are, and whether that risk/reward ratio is appealing.

If you stand to win £10 or lose £2 then you're effectively taking 5/1.
If you stand to win £10 or lose £5 then you're effectively taking 2/1.

I really can't explain it in a more simple way. Unless you understand this then I promise you that nothing anyone says or does will ever make sense to you. This is what people like Paul Rebelo and every other trader is doing in their head, "how will the market move if this or that happens, do I think that risk/reward is overpriced or underpriced". That is trading. They might not say that because they assume anyone watching already understands how traders make money. It's not Rebelo's job to teach you the baby steps and it's why what he's saying makes no sense to you.

I know you won't even take 2 minutes to try and understand this, just like all the other times it's been explained, but perhaps other new people will find it useful.

Thanks, I am starting to see now. I was looking at price decay with 2-1 market but you also have consider who will so it is a more complex market.

I am going to focus this week on U/O. I don't like selecting match winner markets but I can see how this market can be worked on.

[JustLukeYou]

Is it also useful to look for games with one team winning who shut up shop. For example, Liverpool might go 2-0 up against Man Utd tomorrow by attacking lots but then they change tactics and sit behind the ball whilst most people think they will want to score more goals.

(Although Liverpool is probably a bad example)

[Kai]

I see so it does finish 0-0 you lose £25. If there is an early goal and it finishes 1-0 is it still possible to make a profit?

I guess there's only one way to find out Luke, I wouldn't want to spoil anything as this will be your first lay bet/trade

Lay these prices with a stake of 2 and your liability will always be in pennies, much lower than 2, and then manage your bet/trade accordingly without asking anyone on what to do next.

But what I'd really like to see is a post from you that doesn't end with a sub-question, this below would be an example of a post that I'm sure people would love to see I think you're more than capable of writing such a simple post.

OK, thanks everyone! I have all that I need for now, can't wait to get stuck in.