A little maths help please

[Tiger]

Can someone help me to understand how to get the answer to this maths question so I can create a formula to repeat.

Team A has over 1.5 goals per game 88% of the time
Team B has over 1.5 goals per game 76% of the time.

What is the chance of over 1.5 goals occurring when they play each other.

And what odds to I need for a single straight over 1.5 goals value bet.

I'm sure it will be an elementary question for many of the math minded brains in the community.

[Euler]

In simple terms you would multiply them together if they are independent events, which you could argue they are not.

But if something has an 88% chance of occurring and another 76% and they are independent they that would equal 66.88%

You have the % but not the std dev. If you have the standard deviation as well, it's a simple solution to answer many questions. Besides you shouldn't be looking at the %, you should be looking at how many goals each team score on average.

[Tiger]

In simple terms you would multiply them together if they are independent events, which you could argue they are not.

But if something has an 88% chance of occurring and another 76% and they are independent they that would equal 66.88%

You have the % but not the std dev. If you have the standard deviation as well, it's a simple solution to answer many questions. Besides you shouldn't be looking at the %, you should be looking at how many goals each team score on average.

Ah ok. I was wondering if I could find a probability to turn into implied odds to use as a base to decide where the value was for a straight bet.

[sionascaig]

You might be better following some of the methodology described below rather than rely on an averages from the past, e.g. if you model "up" from some basic fundamental units / assumptions should get a better understanding of what are likely to be key factors impacting price v's modelling "down" with unknown unknowns, e.g. variance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRjrMbk ... ackAndrews

I'm sure Peter also had a video on modelling football goals in the Bet Angel youtube channel which may help. It covered "goal expectations" & "superiority" etc.. (if I remember right)