Such a shame I changed the Newcastle result at the last minute; lost my bottle. That could've cost me 3rd
SKY Soccer Saturday Super 6
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2096
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Newcastle to win & I'd have beaten Peter on scores!!!!!
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2096
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
.. not to mention the rounds I've missed, so mad right now!!!!!!!
Turned out to be quiet an exciting competition, those last few weeks were especially good with some nice scraps going on, it even looked like Norman was going to be caught for a little while!
Certainly learned a lot ready for next year so very much looking forward to the new season Mr. Chairman
Certainly learned a lot ready for next year so very much looking forward to the new season Mr. Chairman
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2096
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Yeah Really enjoyed it
Tom worthy champion; been pretty much 1st since day 1! .. & finished 786/1M+ players.
Surely has to deserve a prize for such total domination!
Tom worthy champion; been pretty much 1st since day 1! .. & finished 786/1M+ players.
Surely has to deserve a prize for such total domination!
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
Yep, congratulations Tom, whatever your nickname is!ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Sun May 13, 2018 5:29 pmTom worthy champion; been pretty much 1st since day 1! .. & finished 786/1M+ players.
How many were in your group/league?ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Sun May 13, 2018 3:52 pm
Such a shame I changed the Newcastle result at the last minute; lost my bottle. That could've cost me 3rd
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2096
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
- MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2222
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
did anybody beat my total of 22 points for a single week?
Many thanks to you all for your kind words and sentiments. The “1-0 strategy” certainly helped.
Predicting the outcome of a match is never easy but trying to predict a correct scoreline is even more complex.
In the Premiership in 16/17 the top frequent scorelines were “1-1” and “1-0” with 38 each. In other words one in every five matches in the top flight either finished “1-0” or “1-1”. The next top scorelines were “2-0” (33 times), “2-1” (30 times) and “0-0” (27 times). So there was a 43.7% chance that a scoreline would be one of those 5 scorelines. In the 15/16 season “1-1” was the top scoreline occurring 41 times (11%) followed by “1-0” occurring 37 times (just under 10%).
I coupled that with the fact that in 16/17 49% of matches ended in a Home Win, 29% of games were away wins and 22% of matches finished in Draws. In 15/16 Home Wins occurred 41%, Away Wins 31% and Draws 28%.
So I set about the 17/18 season mainly going for Home Wins of 1-0. Obviously, there were exceptions. For example if I felt the Away team was much stronger I would go for an Away win. If I felt there was a huge gap in strength I would go for a 2-0 or 0-2 scoreline.
With 64 rounds it meant that out of 384 matches I got 143 results correct with 45 correct scores. So 37% of results right with just under 12% strike rate for correct scores.
The flaws in my strategy?
(1) The obvious one - I ignored the possibility of Draws as I felt it was the poor relation in an outcome of a match. But yet “1-1” and “0-0” were 2 of the top 5 scorelines.
(2) The stats above are from the Soccer Stats.com and are based on the Premier Division but as we know the Super 6 competition covers matches from other Leagues – Championship, League 1 and 2 and Champions Leagues. Although a quick scan suggests a similar percentage ratio for Home Wins, Away Wins and Draws with “1-0” and “1-1” the leading two scorelines.in these Leagues.
Just for the record I entered the Talksport Predictor Competition at https://predictor.talksport.com/public/#/home and finished 1494 out of 85134 players. This competition is based solely on every Premiership game. Although their scoring system differs in that you can choose a Banker Selection which can double or triple your score and an Insurance Game where if you are incorrect you score zero. Normally an incorrect choice gives you a minus score.
Strategies, although always prescriptive, should always be reviewed and be open to change and the above is no different. So, for next season I may make changes and certainly will look at Draws which is obviously a huge flaw with me. Like everyone else that enters these competitions the aim is always to win one of the big prizes and hopefully it will happen someday.
Apologies for the overload of stats in the message and I know this is meant to be the Chill Out Area and after reading these stats you probably feel I have changed it into the Kill Out Area!!!! But I would just like to finish by thanking you all for the kind sentiments, I’m looking forward to next season and to wish you all well for next season.
Predicting the outcome of a match is never easy but trying to predict a correct scoreline is even more complex.
In the Premiership in 16/17 the top frequent scorelines were “1-1” and “1-0” with 38 each. In other words one in every five matches in the top flight either finished “1-0” or “1-1”. The next top scorelines were “2-0” (33 times), “2-1” (30 times) and “0-0” (27 times). So there was a 43.7% chance that a scoreline would be one of those 5 scorelines. In the 15/16 season “1-1” was the top scoreline occurring 41 times (11%) followed by “1-0” occurring 37 times (just under 10%).
I coupled that with the fact that in 16/17 49% of matches ended in a Home Win, 29% of games were away wins and 22% of matches finished in Draws. In 15/16 Home Wins occurred 41%, Away Wins 31% and Draws 28%.
So I set about the 17/18 season mainly going for Home Wins of 1-0. Obviously, there were exceptions. For example if I felt the Away team was much stronger I would go for an Away win. If I felt there was a huge gap in strength I would go for a 2-0 or 0-2 scoreline.
With 64 rounds it meant that out of 384 matches I got 143 results correct with 45 correct scores. So 37% of results right with just under 12% strike rate for correct scores.
The flaws in my strategy?
(1) The obvious one - I ignored the possibility of Draws as I felt it was the poor relation in an outcome of a match. But yet “1-1” and “0-0” were 2 of the top 5 scorelines.
(2) The stats above are from the Soccer Stats.com and are based on the Premier Division but as we know the Super 6 competition covers matches from other Leagues – Championship, League 1 and 2 and Champions Leagues. Although a quick scan suggests a similar percentage ratio for Home Wins, Away Wins and Draws with “1-0” and “1-1” the leading two scorelines.in these Leagues.
Just for the record I entered the Talksport Predictor Competition at https://predictor.talksport.com/public/#/home and finished 1494 out of 85134 players. This competition is based solely on every Premiership game. Although their scoring system differs in that you can choose a Banker Selection which can double or triple your score and an Insurance Game where if you are incorrect you score zero. Normally an incorrect choice gives you a minus score.
Strategies, although always prescriptive, should always be reviewed and be open to change and the above is no different. So, for next season I may make changes and certainly will look at Draws which is obviously a huge flaw with me. Like everyone else that enters these competitions the aim is always to win one of the big prizes and hopefully it will happen someday.
Apologies for the overload of stats in the message and I know this is meant to be the Chill Out Area and after reading these stats you probably feel I have changed it into the Kill Out Area!!!! But I would just like to finish by thanking you all for the kind sentiments, I’m looking forward to next season and to wish you all well for next season.
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3243
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Well done!tomhen wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 10:58 pmMany thanks to you all for your kind words and sentiments. The “1-0 strategy” certainly helped.
Predicting the outcome of a match is never easy but trying to predict a correct scoreline is even more complex.
In the Premiership in 16/17 the top frequent scorelines were “1-1” and “1-0” with 38 each. In other words one in every five matches in the top flight either finished “1-0” or “1-1”. The next top scorelines were “2-0” (33 times), “2-1” (30 times) and “0-0” (27 times). So there was a 43.7% chance that a scoreline would be one of those 5 scorelines. In the 15/16 season “1-1” was the top scoreline occurring 41 times (11%) followed by “1-0” occurring 37 times (just under 10%).
I coupled that with the fact that in 16/17 49% of matches ended in a Home Win, 29% of games were away wins and 22% of matches finished in Draws. In 15/16 Home Wins occurred 41%, Away Wins 31% and Draws 28%.
So I set about the 17/18 season mainly going for Home Wins of 1-0. Obviously, there were exceptions. For example if I felt the Away team was much stronger I would go for an Away win. If I felt there was a huge gap in strength I would go for a 2-0 or 0-2 scoreline.
With 64 rounds it meant that out of 384 matches I got 143 results correct with 45 correct scores. So 37% of results right with just under 12% strike rate for correct scores.
The flaws in my strategy?
(1) The obvious one - I ignored the possibility of Draws as I felt it was the poor relation in an outcome of a match. But yet “1-1” and “0-0” were 2 of the top 5 scorelines.
(2) The stats above are from the Soccer Stats.com and are based on the Premier Division but as we know the Super 6 competition covers matches from other Leagues – Championship, League 1 and 2 and Champions Leagues. Although a quick scan suggests a similar percentage ratio for Home Wins, Away Wins and Draws with “1-0” and “1-1” the leading two scorelines.in these Leagues.
Just for the record I entered the Talksport Predictor Competition at https://predictor.talksport.com/public/#/home and finished 1494 out of 85134 players. This competition is based solely on every Premiership game. Although their scoring system differs in that you can choose a Banker Selection which can double or triple your score and an Insurance Game where if you are incorrect you score zero. Normally an incorrect choice gives you a minus score.
Strategies, although always prescriptive, should always be reviewed and be open to change and the above is no different. So, for next season I may make changes and certainly will look at Draws which is obviously a huge flaw with me. Like everyone else that enters these competitions the aim is always to win one of the big prizes and hopefully it will happen someday.
Apologies for the overload of stats in the message and I know this is meant to be the Chill Out Area and after reading these stats you probably feel I have changed it into the Kill Out Area!!!! But I would just like to finish by thanking you all for the kind sentiments, I’m looking forward to next season and to wish you all well for next season.
Good stats info too. Lines up well for a dutching strategy next year. Bet Angel has a fine and dandy dutching programme that can be tweaked to suit.
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
BTW it looks like Super6 will set up some sort of competition for the World Cup as well.
https://twitter.com/Super6/status/996058427309903873
Who's up for it?
https://twitter.com/Super6/status/996058427309903873
Who's up for it?
I was rather hoping they would do this, I expect most will be up for it and even some newcomers.northbound wrote: ↑Tue May 15, 2018 9:55 amBTW it looks like Super6 will set up some sort of competition for the World Cup as well.
https://twitter.com/Super6/status/996058427309903873
Who's up for it?