Yeah I didn't explain it too well, it isn't a trading bot, it is a value bet at SP (on Greys) and with smallish stakes ($5).jamesedwards wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:52 amIt could be coincidence but it sounds likely that your strategy does not work in real markets. The 'practise' section of Bet Angel is really only for checking rules behave as expected rather than for testing profitability as it does not and cannot behave in exactly the same way as live. For example as you never enter the market the amount available at the best price will be infinite in practise mode, whereas it might only be a few pence in real life. Also as soon as you enter the market you become part of that market and so change the way it behaves. I would only use the practise mode for testing behaviour and then use the smallest possible stakes in real mode to test profitabilityandy28 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:56 amConfidence is important and it can cost you.
I had a strategy ready to go, did all the testing so went live (small stakes ) and it failed for the first full month worse than any month in my testing. So protecting my bank I stopped for the next month, and it performed as it should have. In fact it made back the loss of the previous month. Still lacking confidence I thought I needed to watch it another month and it won for that month as well. So October I go live again 5 days in and it is down again so I pulled the plug again. Next 2 days paper trading it wins and wins back the loss of the first 5 days.
My confidence is at an all time low but the strategy is tracking as I had thought, only thing that has changed is my confidence. Why I cant just let it do what it does is beyond me Back in July had I kept going until now it I would be sitting pretty, instead my Bank is at an all time low.
The bets were getting matched as I wanted (when I went live) but I got too many losing bets and not enough winning bets. You maybe right tho as having a losing month isn't a good sign. But I am also wondering as it is a betting strategy it may have much larger drawdowns than a trading strat. My M Carlo sim I ran may not have given me an accurate drawdown as it lay betting at varying odds and liabilities, and that confused the hell out of me, so I just took the average of all bets. But I feel I am in no mans land and will probably just paper trade this month and then let it go from Nov to the end of the year come hell or high water
.